AZ OH-Predictive Insights: McSally +3

[Badger]

Sinema was up 4 in their last poll, and 6 in the one before that. Yikes. She really might blow this. I'm sad to say I've been right all these months, yet it was brushed off because of muh June polls.

Sinema completely squandered the year long head start she had by running endless moderate hero ads and never laying a finger on McSally. And this is what she has to show for it. What an awful candidate and a terrible campaign. Yet Atlas insisted AZ was more likely to flip than NV.

She didn't have an official primary opponent until a week ago. Even with her lead in the primary polls, there was little she could realistically do to attack McSally. That's over.