AZ OH-Predictive Insights: McSally +3

[junior chįmp]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

[junior chįmp]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

Thats not even remotely comparable to this.

The MA special had less to do with the national environment and more to do with Coakley being awful.

Sinema's fate may very well depend on how popular Trump is at the given moment.

Coakleys loss can be attributed more to running in 2 GOP wave years: 2010 & 2014 then her quality as a candidate. She was no more worse a candidate than lackluster Blunt, Johnson, Toomey, etc... They just happen to have better timing than her.

[junior chįmp]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

That was a special election


If that election took place in Nov 2010 instead of Jan 2010 the Dems would have won that seat handily

Bruh....special elections correlate pretty well to midterm performance.