AZ OH-Predictive Insights: McSally +3

[IceSpear]

Sinema was up 4 in their last poll, and 6 in the one before that. Yikes. She really might blow this. I'm sad to say I've been right all these months, yet it was brushed off because of muh June polls.

Sinema completely squandered the year long head start she had by running endless moderate hero ads and never laying a finger on McSally. And this is what she has to show for it. What an awful candidate and a terrible campaign. Yet Atlas insisted AZ was more likely to flip than NV.

[IceSpear]

I still think Sinema ends up winning, but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.

She should still win in this environment, but she's certainly doing her damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Whoever has run her campaign should probably be barred from any Democratic campaigns in the future. Along with whoever thought of the "court Reasonable Republicans" and the "When they go low we go high" strategies from 2016.

[IceSpear]

If Democrats nominated Abboud instead, McSally would be up by 8-10 points and this race would have been a repeat of the 2010 Deleware Senate Race where the GOP threw a winnable race by nominating the tea party candidate over the moderate hero.

Which is why Hiral Tipirnini kept a district that Trump won by 21 points to a 5 point win by running as a solid progressive.

Not that it would've mattered what she ran as. People don't vote based on ideology, ESPECIALLY not "swing voters." Sinema is a garbage candidate not because she's running as a moderate hero necessarily (though I personally find it annoying, and I highly doubt I'm alone there), but because she's done nothing but run boring ads about how moderate she is and let McSally get by completely unscathed. McSally has landed more blows on Sinema in the last week than Sinema has on McSally in the last year.

[IceSpear]

Sinema was up 4 in their last poll, and 6 in the one before that. Yikes. She really might blow this. I'm sad to say I've been right all these months, yet it was brushed off because of muh June polls.

Sinema completely squandered the year long head start she had by running endless moderate hero ads and never laying a finger on McSally. And this is what she has to show for it. What an awful candidate and a terrible campaign. Yet Atlas insisted AZ was more likely to flip than NV.

She didn't have an official primary opponent until a week ago. Even with her lead in the primary polls, there was little she could realistically do to attack McSally. That's over.

There was nothing stopping her from blasting McSally on the airwaves while the Republican primary was still ongoing. You soften up McSally's image and also have an outside chance at damaging her badly enough that a nut like Ward gets nominated instead. Win/Win. She should've taken lessons from Claire McCaskill, who is ten times the politician that Sinema will ever be.

[IceSpear]

Isn't this a Republican affiliated pollster?

I don't know, but Trump definitely doesn't have a +4 job approval in Arizona.

OH is a known republican pollster that releases polls to push narratives of "everything is fine" especially with Ducey and the legislature.

Their polls in 2016: Clinton +5, Clinton +1, Tie
Their polls in 2018: Sinema +1, Sinema +6, Sinema +4

Yeah, sounds like a real Republican hack shill pollster.

[IceSpear]

I really wish Gallego would've ran for this seat, McSally is going to squeeze everything she can from her military experience. Whether you want to admit it or not the 'Pink Tutu' ad is effective messaging and we'll see more like it.

We already are seeing much more like it. McSally is completely hammering Sinema on the airwaves, while Sinema continues to dither by talking about how moderate she is, as if anyone cares.

https://youtu.be/Jw2bLJ2Ws4E
https://youtu.be/nScY346Nyb0

[IceSpear]

Isn't this a Republican affiliated pollster?

I don't know, but Trump definitely doesn't have a +4 job approval in Arizona.

OH is a known republican pollster that releases polls to push narratives of "everything is fine" especially with Ducey and the legislature.

Their polls in 2016: Clinton +5, Clinton +1, Tie
Their polls in 2018: Sinema +1, Sinema +6, Sinema +4

Yeah, sounds like a real Republican hack shill pollster.

Anyone who releases a poll with bad results for Ds is automatically a Republican hack pollster, how long have you been here yet you still don’t know this?

Indeed. The OH Predictive Insights giveth, and the OH Predictive Insights taketh...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=290033.0