AZ OH-Predictive Insights: McSally +3

[2016]

Still very Lean D.

This isn't lean D. Every Political Handicapper like Cook, Nathan Gonzalez or CNN & NBC has this Race as Toss Up.

[Badger]

Sinema was up 4 in their last poll, and 6 in the one before that. Yikes. She really might blow this. I'm sad to say I've been right all these months, yet it was brushed off because of muh June polls.

Sinema completely squandered the year long head start she had by running endless moderate hero ads and never laying a finger on McSally. And this is what she has to show for it. What an awful candidate and a terrible campaign. Yet Atlas insisted AZ was more likely to flip than NV.

She didn't have an official primary opponent until a week ago. Even with her lead in the primary polls, there was little she could realistically do to attack McSally. That's over.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Isn't this a Republican affiliated pollster?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html

If they are, they don't do a very good job showing numbers that are better for the GOP than in reality

[😥]

Lean D------Tossup

[UWS]

Things seem to be getting better and better for McSally.

[KingSweden]

Meh, I'll wait for a quality poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, and AZ hasn't yet elected a Democratic SENATOR

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/o18etzyrxh0qif6/Press%20Version%20SENATE%20report%20ONLY.pdf

OK lol no way Trump's approvals are at 51/47.

Sinema is at 47/38, McSally 49/39. This actually isn't a bad poll for Kyrsten at all.

[KingSweden]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/o18etzyrxh0qif6/Press%20Version%20SENATE%20report%20ONLY.pdf

OK lol no way Trump's approvals are at 51/47.

Sinema is at 47/38, McSally 49/39. This actually isn't a bad poll for Kyrsten at all.

So you're saying we all neurotically overreacted again?

ATLAS

That being said, I do think McSally is enjoying some consolidation of the base after the primary

[BudgieForce]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

[ON Progressive]

LOL Trump’s net approval is absolutely not higher than his margin of victory in 2016 was.

[junior chįmp]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Democrats nominated Abboud instead, McSally would be up by 8-10 points and this race would have been a repeat of the 2010 Deleware Senate Race where the GOP threw a winnable race by nominating the tea party candidate over the moderate hero.

Which is why Hiral Tipirnini kept a district that Trump won by 21 points to a 5 point win by running as a solid progressive.

Not that it would've mattered what she ran as. People don't vote based on ideology, ESPECIALLY not "swing voters." Sinema is a garbage candidate not because she's running as a moderate hero necessarily (though I personally find it annoying, and I highly doubt I'm alone there), but because she's done nothing but run boring ads about how moderate she is and let McSally get by completely unscathed. McSally has landed more blows on Sinema in the last week than Sinema has on McSally in the last year.

That was a special election , those election always have very weird results.


The fact is this race is very similar to 2010 Delaware if Castle won the primaries .

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

That was a special election


If that election took place in Nov 2010 instead of Jan 2010 the Dems would have won that seat handily

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I still think Sinema ends up winning, but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.

[BudgieForce]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

Thats not even remotely comparable to this.

The MA special had less to do with the national environment and more to do with Coakley being awful.

Sinema's fate may very well depend on how popular Trump is at the given moment.

[Xing]

Worth noting how in 2016, the polls swung from a dead heat to McCain leading by around 20, and he eventually won by 13. Sinema's not out of the race, but it was foolish to think that this race was more likely to flip than Nevada. This race is quite reminiscent of FL-SEN 2016: Two opportunistic empty suits running, one moderate hero Democrat desperate to prove how "moderate" they are, and Republican who gets the label "moderate" despite being very conservative.

[junior chįmp]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

Thats not even remotely comparable to this.

The MA special had less to do with the national environment and more to do with Coakley being awful.

Sinema's fate may very well depend on how popular Trump is at the given moment.

Coakleys loss can be attributed more to running in 2 GOP wave years: 2010 & 2014 then her quality as a candidate. She was no more worse a candidate than lackluster Blunt, Johnson, Toomey, etc... They just happen to have better timing than her.

[junior chįmp]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

That was a special election


If that election took place in Nov 2010 instead of Jan 2010 the Dems would have won that seat handily

Bruh....special elections correlate pretty well to midterm performance.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump's numbers are +4 on election day, McSally will probably win. Good thing for Sinema, it seems like an outlier.

Obama had a 60% approval rating in MA when Scott Brown won. Its not that important

That was a special election


If that election took place in Nov 2010 instead of Jan 2010 the Dems would have won that seat handily

Bruh....special elections correlate pretty well to midterm performance.

If national environment meant everything and candidate quality didnt matter than the GOP would have won Deleware, Colorado and Nevada in 2010 as well but lost it due to nominating the Tea Party candidate

[RJ]

In a day and age of negative campaigning and with the disapproval an cynicism people have about elections, campaigns and government in general I can't believe this is a predominant approach:

I still think Sinema ends up winning, but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.

Part of this is going in mi sig.

[IceSpear]

Sinema was up 4 in their last poll, and 6 in the one before that. Yikes. She really might blow this. I'm sad to say I've been right all these months, yet it was brushed off because of muh June polls.

Sinema completely squandered the year long head start she had by running endless moderate hero ads and never laying a finger on McSally. And this is what she has to show for it. What an awful candidate and a terrible campaign. Yet Atlas insisted AZ was more likely to flip than NV.

She didn't have an official primary opponent until a week ago. Even with her lead in the primary polls, there was little she could realistically do to attack McSally. That's over.

There was nothing stopping her from blasting McSally on the airwaves while the Republican primary was still ongoing. You soften up McSally's image and also have an outside chance at damaging her badly enough that a nut like Ward gets nominated instead. Win/Win. She should've taken lessons from Claire McCaskill, who is ten times the politician that Sinema will ever be.

[Devout Centrist]

Uh oh, looks like Atlas is freaking out again

[Webnicz]

Isn't this a Republican affiliated pollster?

I don't know, but Trump definitely doesn't have a +4 job approval in Arizona.

OH is a known republican pollster that releases polls to push narratives of "everything is fine" especially with Ducey and the legislature.

[BudgieForce]

Uh oh, looks like Atlas is freaking out again

It's mostly just Icespear.