AZ-Gravis-McSally+1
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Author Topic: AZ-Gravis-McSally+1  (Read 4044 times)
UncleSam
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« Reply #50 on: September 10, 2018, 10:28:52 AM »

Why is there anything to explain lol. A low turnout special election does not resemble the electorate of a midterm, and the reason that the special itself was so close was because the Democrat ran a progressive campaign that appealed to the base, something Sinema is not doing.

There was more votes cast in that "low turnout" election than the 2014 general election.
You know as well as I do that turnout in 2018 will be way higher than it was in 2014.

Anyway one of us will be right and there’s no point in arguing about it. Special elections are great at showing which base is more enthused, but even Nate Silver has admitted that special elections are the least useful of the major indicators (generic ballot, presidential approval rating, PVI, incumbency) at projecting individual outcomes. Expecting a midterm to mimic a special is silly.
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These knuckles break before they bleed
BRTD
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« Reply #51 on: September 10, 2018, 10:35:16 AM »

Why is there anything to explain lol. A low turnout special election does not resemble the electorate of a midterm, and the reason that the special itself was so close was because the Democrat ran a progressive campaign that appealed to the base, something Sinema is not doing.

There was more votes cast in that "low turnout" election than the 2014 general election.
You know as well as I do that turnout in 2018 will be way higher than it was in 2014.

Yes turnout will probably equal the special's. That's the point.
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Overturn Dobbs
Beet
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« Reply #52 on: September 10, 2018, 10:48:14 AM »

Arizona is not the same as GA-06. In GA-06, the previous Republican incumbent got 62% of the vote, and 66% before that, so a 51%-48% Handel win was already a massive Democratic swing. The Democratic candidate was 30 years old, had never held elected office, and was accused of padding his resume. More importantly, it's a very rich and highly educated district, which means the Trump margin was highly misleading. Arizona is a mostly working class state which approved a minimum wage increase at the same time Trump was winning. The issues here favor Sinema.
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Skye
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« Reply #53 on: September 10, 2018, 11:18:13 AM »

Y'all are going wild over a Gravis poll within the margin of error. Never change, Atlas.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #54 on: September 10, 2018, 11:32:59 AM »

Why is there anything to explain lol. A low turnout special election does not resemble the electorate of a midterm, and the reason that the special itself was so close was because the Democrat ran a progressive campaign that appealed to the base, something Sinema is not doing.

There was more votes cast in that "low turnout" election than the 2014 general election.
You know as well as I do that turnout in 2018 will be way higher than it was in 2014.

Yes turnout will probably equal the special's. That's the point.
Turnout will far exceed the special, but it’s a moot point to argue at this juncture. Again, one of us will be right - if you’re not convinced by my reasoning at this point then that’s fine, we will see in November
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2016
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« Reply #55 on: September 10, 2018, 11:35:36 AM »

A certain User zaybay told us that Democrats had this one in the bag for months. Actually a lot of Democrats did say so.
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DTC
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« Reply #56 on: September 10, 2018, 11:36:56 AM »

McSally name is representative of popular food, McDonalds. Fitness and health of Sinema is counterbalance, along with sand dunes of rising sun Latinos who are energized by Trump. Respect of Mccain, like the mcchicken, is temporarily boosting Mcdally. The sun sets every day though, and will set for Mcsally too.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #57 on: September 10, 2018, 11:41:40 AM »

A certain User zaybay told us that Democrats had this one in the bag for months. Actually a lot of Democrats did say so.
Its a bit telling that you are using a Gravis poll giving McSally a margin of +1 to reinforce your argument. If a good poll comes out showing a similar result, I would agree, but so far, the race is still D favoured.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #58 on: September 10, 2018, 12:36:31 PM »

A certain User zaybay told us that Democrats had this one in the bag for months. Actually a lot of Democrats did say so.
Its a bit telling that you are using a Gravis poll giving McSally a margin of +1 to reinforce your argument. If a good poll comes out showing a similar result, I would agree, but so far, the race is still D favoured.

Actually Gravis has been very good this Cycle on Polling. We don't need the liberal Propaganda Polls from NBC/Marist who badly botched everything in 2014 & 2016.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #59 on: September 10, 2018, 12:38:56 PM »

I'm really of two minds on this race, articulated well by UncleSam vs. everyone else. On one hand, Sinema should win this race in a year like this. On the other hand, I really don't trust her to not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #60 on: September 10, 2018, 12:46:09 PM »

A certain User zaybay told us that Democrats had this one in the bag for months. Actually a lot of Democrats did say so.
Its a bit telling that you are using a Gravis poll giving McSally a margin of +1 to reinforce your argument. If a good poll comes out showing a similar result, I would agree, but so far, the race is still D favoured.

Actually Gravis has been very good this Cycle on Polling. We don't need the liberal Propaganda Polls from NBC/Marist who badly botched everything in 2014 & 2016.

are you serious? They have been wildly off and inconsistent this entire year. Just because you dont like the fact that Marist, which is much better and has been consistently close, has been getting results favourable to Rs doesnt make it less right.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #61 on: September 10, 2018, 12:55:24 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2018, 04:53:43 PM by GeorgiaModerate »

A certain User zaybay told us that Democrats had this one in the bag for months. Actually a lot of Democrats did say so.
Its a bit telling that you are using a Gravis poll giving McSally a margin of +1 to reinforce your argument. If a good poll comes out showing a similar result, I would agree, but so far, the race is still D favoured.

Actually Gravis has been very good this Cycle on Polling. We don't need the liberal Propaganda Polls from NBC/Marist who badly botched everything in 2014 & 2016.

are you serious? They have been wildly off and inconsistent this entire year. Just because you dont like the fact that Marist, which is much better and has been consistently close, has been getting results favourable to Rs doesnt make it less right.

You might as well save your breath.  The fact that he labels NBC/Marist (one of the best pollsters around) as "liberal Propaganda Polls" shows that he's already got his mind made up.  Facts will just bounce off his mental shields.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #62 on: September 10, 2018, 03:18:39 PM »

I think many of Ward and Arpaio’s voters were starting to now rally around her now that the primary is over.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #63 on: September 11, 2018, 02:06:35 AM »

Sinema has a +1 poll: Well, it's still a tossup and she's in a traditionally Republican state. McSally is a strong candidate as well. Tossup/tilt R

McSally has a +1 poll: Mmm it looks like Arpaio and Ward voters are rallying around her. Gonna be hard for Sinema to win those one, even on an amazing night. Turnout will be very low. Likely R, closer to Solid.
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #64 on: September 11, 2018, 04:13:16 PM »

>Gravis.

Anyway, the reason Sinema was/is favored here is not because she’s a "strong candidate" running a "strong campaign", but because of the national environment and her state's Democratic trend. Still Lean D (I disagree with UncleSam - if Republicans hold AZ, Dems won’t be having a good night), but she’s not some unbeatable electoral goddess.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #65 on: September 11, 2018, 05:13:32 PM »

>Gravis.

Anyway, the reason Sinema was/is favored here is not because she’s a "strong candidate" running a "strong campaign", but because of the national environment and her state's Democratic trend. Still Lean D (I disagree with UncleSam - if Republicans hold AZ, Dems won’t be having a good night), but she’s not some unbeatable electoral goddess.

Sinema is neither a strong candidate nor running a strong campaign.
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