North Dakota AARP poll of those 50 and over: Cramer 46 and Heitkamp 43
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  North Dakota AARP poll of those 50 and over: Cramer 46 and Heitkamp 43
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Author Topic: North Dakota AARP poll of those 50 and over: Cramer 46 and Heitkamp 43  (Read 1988 times)
Former Kentuckian
Cal
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« on: September 10, 2018, 02:22:42 PM »

I posted this in the North Dakota megathread, and it only covers one demographic, but I thought I'd post it here anyway since we're getting nothing out of North Dakota.

AARP polled North Dakotans over 50:

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Source: https://states.aarp.org/nd-2018-election-poll/
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2018, 02:25:27 PM »

These polls where they only poll one demographic are really annoying.
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Former Kentuckian
Cal
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2018, 02:27:40 PM »

These polls where they only poll one demographic are really annoying.

Agreed. Maybe I'm just imagining it, but it seems like it is happening more frequently. But I'm desperate for anything out of North Dakota, so I posted this one.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2018, 02:29:24 PM »

These polls where they only poll one demographic are really annoying.

Agreed. Maybe I'm just imagining it, but it seems like it is happening more frequently. But I'm desperate for anything out of North Dakota, so I posted this one.

Insofar as it tells us anything, I think it just says "still tossup." Heitkamp is probably doing somewhat better with younger voters (not sure how much), and that should more or less make up the difference.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2018, 02:32:17 PM »

These polls are meaningless but if Cramer is only up 3 with this group then I’d give Heitkamp a good shot
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2018, 02:36:34 PM »

A lot of the older population in ND are old-school, farming, WWC Dems. The younger  generation is Likely R due to the oil boom.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2018, 02:38:45 PM »

AARP is one of the most Democratic organizations in the country.  I am not saying the poll is not legit. I hope you will forgive me for totally disregarding this poll.
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JG
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2018, 02:41:35 PM »

A lot of the older population in ND are old-school, farming, WWC Dems. The younger  generation is Likely R due to the oil boom.

The last time the Democrats won North Dakota at the presidential level is 1964 (which itsel was the first time since 1936). I don't think there are much ancestral democrats roots there.
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2018, 02:41:59 PM »

AARP is one of the most Democratic organizations in the country.  I am not saying the poll is not legit. I hope you will forgive me for totally disregarding this poll.

They haven't been that wrong in the past.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2018, 02:42:52 PM »

A lot of the older population in ND are old-school, farming, WWC Dems. The younger  generation is Likely R due to the oil boom.

The last time the Democrats won North Dakota at the presidential level is 1964 (which itsel was the first time since 1936). I don't think there are much ancestral democrats roots there.


I think he is thinking of Southeastern SOUTH Dakota around Vermilion. That's pretty much the place in the Dakotas where you have Minnesota-style populists.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2018, 02:56:25 PM »

That seems like good news.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2018, 02:58:30 PM »


I would agree.
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DaWN
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« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2018, 02:59:29 PM »

Does anyone know if there's an age group breakdown for ND for 2016 or any previous years anywhere?
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2018, 03:05:12 PM »

Does anyone know if there's an age group breakdown for ND for 2016 or any previous years anywhere?

I looked for exit polls for the Dakotas in recent elections. There are none. Though IIRC, Prop 6 in South Dakota flopped amongst the younger voters and was neck and neck with older ones. This was in 2006.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2018, 03:25:14 PM »

We can't infer too much from this poll, but I am skeptical of the idea that older voters are always more Republican than younger voters in every state. In this state I think there's good reason to believe younger voters (maybe not 20's, but 30-50) vote more Republican than those over 50.
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2018, 03:26:59 PM »

Still Tilt R, but a decent poll for Heitkamp.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2018, 03:53:06 PM »

Does anyone know if there's an age group breakdown for ND for 2016 or any previous years anywhere?

I looked for exit polls for the Dakotas in recent elections. There are none. Though IIRC, Prop 6 in South Dakota flopped amongst the younger voters and was neck and neck with older ones. This was in 2006.

Getting old now, but 2008 exit poll: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NDP00p1

18-29: Obama +4
30-44: McCain +16
45-64: McCain +13
65+: Too low to sample

18-24: Obama +12
24-29: Too low to sample
30-39: McCain +16
40-49: McCain +20
50-64: McCain +9
65+: Too low to sample

White 18-29: TIE
White 30-44: McCain +19
White 45-64: McCain +14

McCain won ND by 9.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2018, 03:53:50 PM »

Heidi will win narrowly.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2018, 04:54:40 PM »

Does anyone know if there's an age group breakdown for ND for 2016 or any previous years anywhere?

I looked for exit polls for the Dakotas in recent elections. There are none. Though IIRC, Prop 6 in South Dakota flopped amongst the younger voters and was neck and neck with older ones. This was in 2006.

This old Gravis poll from February that had Heitkamp leading by 2% had an age breakdown:



Then again...it is Gravis
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2018, 05:07:30 PM »

Yeah, I'm really not sure what to make of this. It could plausibly be interpreted as good news for either candidate. Single demographic polls suck anyway.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2018, 06:10:35 PM »

Does anyone know if there's an age group breakdown for ND for 2016 or any previous years anywhere?

I looked for exit polls for the Dakotas in recent elections. There are none. Though IIRC, Prop 6 in South Dakota flopped amongst the younger voters and was neck and neck with older ones. This was in 2006.

Getting old now, but 2008 exit poll: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NDP00p1

18-29: Obama +4
30-44: McCain +16
45-64: McCain +13
65+: Too low to sample

18-24: Obama +12
24-29: Too low to sample
30-39: McCain +16
40-49: McCain +20
50-64: McCain +9
65+: Too low to sample

White 18-29: TIE
White 30-44: McCain +19
White 45-64: McCain +14

McCain won ND by 9.

Well, this was 10 years ago, so today's over 50s were most likely in the 40-65 range at the time. So that looks like a strongly Republican demographic.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2018, 06:13:05 PM »

Yeah, I'm really not sure what to make of this. It could plausibly be interpreted as good news for either candidate. Single demographic polls suck anyway.

I actually disagree. I'd much rather look at a poll with a decent sample size that's focused on one demographic than go through the crosstabs of regular polls like Atlas loves to do, where the subsamples are so small as to become meaningless.
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OneJ
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« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2018, 06:19:23 PM »

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« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2018, 07:32:01 PM »

Literally what purpose does this poll serve
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2018, 07:34:40 PM »

Lemme state the obvious, WHY CAN’T THEY JUST POLL THE DAMN RACE?!

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