CA-Probolsky Research: Newsom (D) +5

[Technocracy Timmy]

Toss-up.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Clearly Republicans are going to pick up Oregon and California while Democrats pick up South Dakota and Tennessee

Obviously you must mean the Tennessee Senate seat.   The Democrats are not going to pick up the Tennessee governorship.

With that caveat you never know.

Continued violence like that caused by Antfia may eventually cause a backlash.

Continuously raising taxes often causes a backlash.  So will the paying healthcare for illegals as their numbers continue to rise. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I live in CA and IL, Rahm Emmauel and Gavin Newsom are the same Unionites that haven't created better jobs for people, voters are looking for change, but this is secular California, who doesn't want Kavanaugh on the Crt to overturn SSM in the 9th Circuit, it will vote for Gavin Newsom.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Putting aside the idea of a GOP win, which is unlikely this year, would some of you  set out what GOP House seats could be saved at various levels of a possible growing vote for Cox?

[Skye]

Cox will be lucky if he even gets to 39%.

[Xing]

Clearly Republicans are going to pick up Oregon and California while Democrats pick up South Dakota and Tennessee

Obviously you must mean the Tennessee Senate seat.   The Democrats are not going to pick up the Tennessee governorship.

With that caveat you never know.

Continued violence like that caused by Antfia may eventually cause a backlash.

Continuously raising taxes often causes a backlash.  So will the paying healthcare for illegals as their numbers continue to rise. 

I mean the gubernatorial race, sarcastically. Democrats are not going to win TN-GOV and SD-GOV is a real longshot. And if they did somehow win both, there's no way that they'd lose OR-GOV and CA-GOV at the same time. Basically, I was saying that it was a ridiculous idea.

And if there's going to be a backlash, I'm pretty sure Trump's election is going to cause (if it hasn't already) a much larger backlash than Antifa would.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This poll is probablsky garbage.

[Badger]

Lol.

[Canis]

yes because a republican campaigning on totally banning abortion will win in a blue wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a Dem race. But, Newsom only won the primary by five points and he's not all that likeable, anybody but Cox would have made this race competitive. But Newsom isnt gonna win the 63-37 race he thought and Cuomo is in the same boat.

[President Johnson]

I remember some polls in 2010 cycle showing Meg ahead, then she lost by 14 points in a massive Republican year. And Arnie was also behind in some 2006 polls. California polling seems always a little weird. With just two names on the ballot, Newsom could crack 60%. I expect the result be anything between 62-38% to 65-35%.

[Holmes]

Dems aren't losing CA, but Newsom is in the same boat as Rahm Emmanuel, not very well liked among minorities, except in SF.

Says who? My latino family loves him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A lot of Blacks and Latinos in S.Cali voted for Villagragoa. However, Feinstein is a Clinton it's from the 90's it would of been better if Loretta Sanchez to have run for Senate, giving Newsom a boost. Sanchez is gonna replace Feinstein in 2024 anyways

[I’m not Stu]

I remember some polls in 2010 cycle showing Meg ahead, then she lost by 14 points in a massive Republican year. And Arnie was also behind in some 2006 polls. California polling seems always a little weird. With just two names on the ballot, Newsom could crack 60%. I expect the result be anything between 62-38% to 65-35%.

Cox just made a huge blunder. I think Newsom does better with whites than Hillary Clinton, who won the white vote in California. Newsom is more charismatic than Clinton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jerry Brown has made enroads into Black community, Newsom  energizes Latinos, but Blacks will eventually come home to Newsom. It would of been better had Feinstein retired and let Sanchez run.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

A lot of Blacks and Latinos in S.Cali voted for Villagragoa. However, Feinstein is a Clinton it's from the 90's it would of been better if Loretta Sanchez to have run for Senate, giving Newsom a boost. Sanchez is gonna replace Feinstein in 2024 anyways

Hahahaha

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This poll is probablsky garbage.

Underrated comment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This poll is probablsky garbage.

Underrated comment.

Thank you for appreciating my forced pun.

[Eraserhead]

I mean, I wish the Senate numbers were accurate.

Nothing about this poll is though.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not at all surprised by this, Newson isn’t the strongest candidate and support for Republicans in CA has held up surprisingly well even with Trump in the White House. This race is definitely more likely to flip than MT-SEN and maybe even NV-SEN and WV-SEN at this point, and it’s gonna come down to which candidate has the better retail politics, if you ask me.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I’m not at all surprised by this, Newson isn’t the strongest candidate and support for Republicans in CA has held up surprisingly well even with Trump in the White House. This race is definitely more likely to flip than MT-SEN and maybe even NV-SEN and WV-SEN at this point, and it’s gonna come down to which candidate has the better retail politics, if you ask me.

I’d go as far as to say John Cox has a better chance of winning this November than Sununu does.