"Realigning elections"
J. J.:
Quote from: A18 on October 15, 2005, 10:48:01 PM
J.J., how do you personally define a realignment?
It was defined, when I was in school as:
A set of changes that occur usually over a 6-10 year period, are durable (usually 36-40 years) and usually a result of a domestic crisis (the hyper inflation and stagnant growth of the late 1970's).
These changes include:
1. Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).
2. Electioneering tactics (how the election is run)
3. Candidate recruitment (who runs).
4. Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom)
5. Formation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).
(This is from a paper I wrote in 1984, and based on, among other things, the work of V. O. Key and his "critical elections.")
It does not necessarily mean that there was a shift in the party label of the group controlling Congress or the White House. 1986-1902 is generally considered to be a time realignment, yet all presidential elections, but two (same candidate) in the 36 years prior to that, were won by Republicans. Likewise, in the 32 years after that, all presidential elections, but two (same candidate) in the 36 years prior to that, were won by Republicans. It's been argued that the Republicans of the latter period were much different than the Republicans of the first period.
J. J.:
I want expand on some of these changes:
1. Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).
In the early 1980's we called them Yuppies; they have aged and turned into the Soccer Moms. These are the the swing group, figure 25-55, that is the key swing vote. It defeated GHW Bush in 1992 and arguably gave GW Bush his victory in 2004. It's a key demographic and it''s not tied to a party.
You have also seen the social conservatives rise and solidly support the GOP.
2. Electioneering tactics (how the election is run)
The big one. 1980 was the year that outside money, spent separately from began in earnest. The American Conservative PAC was possibly the greatest force in creating a GOP Senate in 1980. We saw the same thing with Soros last year. We're seeing now the advent of "soft money."
3. Candidate recruitment (who runs). In a word on the presidential level, Governors. 7 of the last 8 presidential elections were won by Governors. 7 of the 8 eight previously were not won by Governors. All eight were won by people that were Senators (5) or held a major Federal appointment prior to election (3).
4. Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom). I'd have to do much greater research, but it seems that the "chattering class" has become more Republican that it was in 1980. I can point to three nationally known commentators prior to 1980, Safire (probably a moderate by today's standard), Buckley, and Reagan himself. George Will had just entered the scene, doing some television commentaries (though he was writing since the mid 70's). Would you care to list them today?
One group that lost national influence was big labor; it has lost elite status, which it pretty much had from the early 1930 through the 1970's.
5. Formation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).
Here are some examples. Free Trade, this was unthinkable in the 1970's, especially for Democrats. Defense, from 1981 onward, we no longer looked at "containment" of anything. Tax policy, okay the only figures I could find were on capital gains. At the highest rates, in the late 1970's they were 70%; today the maximum rate is 20%. There was an almost immediate reduction in 1981. The public policy world has been turned upside down by the election of 1980.
That is a realignment. Let me put it this way. I was laying on the floor in front of the television at about 10:15 PM (EST) on November 4, 1980, when I flung my arms out and grabbed on to the carpet. I turned to my father, who was sitting in his favorite chair and said, "Dad, did you feel that?"
He said, "Feel what?"
I said, "The entire country just shifted to the Right." :) It's still there.
A18:
The Republicans post-1876 were very different from the Republicans pre-1876. I don't know how the Republicans from 1877-1896 were any different from the post-1896 Republicans.
Emsworth:
Quote from: A18 on October 18, 2005, 06:02:59 PM
The Republicans post-1876 were very different from the Republicans pre-1876. I don't know how the Republicans from 1877-1896 were any different from the post-1896 Republicans.
Indeed, it was the Democratic Party that changed during the latter time period (moving dramatically from Grover Cleveland to William Jennings Bryan).
J. J.:
You don't think that McKinley was greatly different from Ben Harrison? Certainly in foreign policy, there was a difference of night and day. The entire anti-international wing of the party collapsed; Reed voluntarily left office.
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