"Realigning elections"
A18:
I would argue it's way too early to be predicting 2008. But an equal number of incumbent ins and incumbent outs doesn't necessarily mean the parties have parity.
Consider:
1968: Out 1
1972: In 1, Out 1
1976: In 1, Out 2
1980: In 1, Out 3
1984: In 2, Out 3
1988: In 3, Out 3
1992: In 3, Out 4
1996: In 4, Out 4
2000: In 4, Out 5
2004: In 5, Out 5
That's 7 GOP wins, and 3 Democratic wins. But an even number of shifts.
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Yeah, I think the longest either party will control the presidency in the near future is 12 years.
J-Mann:
Quote from: A18 on October 15, 2005, 08:46:06 PM
Yeah, I think the longest either party will control the presidency in the near future is 12 years.
More than likely so. I can't imagine today's impatient public as willing to put up with one party in the White House for longer than that.
You're right, it's too early to be predicting 2008 since a lot can happen between now and then. In order for the Democrats to do well, they have to have leadership that can capitalize on Republican mistakes from 2001 on. Right now they don't have anyone who can effectively do that.
J-Mann:
On a similar note, what do you plan on studying in college, Philip? I know you'd enjoy constitutional law classes, and I wish I'd taken one or two myself. I think political science would be a good fit for you, either as a primary major or as a backup to something else.
J. J.:
My argument is that a realignment period is very long term, 6 years usually. 1932 was not the FDR Realignment. It started in 1930, and the GOP didn't bounce back until 1938.
If you take a look at the House from 1976 to 1980, there was a 49 seat GOP gain (darn close to the Gingrich Revolution). In the Senate, the same period produced a 15 seat gain (greater than the 1994 gains). This was no where near as powerful as 1930-36, but it was there.
Further, in 1976-1980, you had the famous Bole Weevils, conservative Southern Democrats that supported the GOP largely. They now have been replaced by Republicans. You basically had a GOP Congress in all but name.
Further, I would argue that every president elected since 1976 were more conservative than any nominee in the 1976, or even the 1972 elections.
We are talking about a conservative realignment, though not a Republican one.
A18:
I'm not sure what I'm going to study yet, but thanks for the thought.
J.J., how do you personally define a realignment?
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