imagine drawing conclusions from a poll where neither candidate is above 40%.
According to Nate Silver's "Myth of 50%", incumbent Governors and Senators can typically add 6.5% to an early prediction of how much vote they will get against an unnamed challenger. With 44% the chance of getting re-elected is just over 50%. With 43% the chance of getting re-elected is just under 50%. Chances rapidly approach one if one is above 44% or zero if the beginning number is below 43%. This holds true in both wave and non-wave elections, and it has held true in elections from 2010 to 2014. The assumption is that someone already elected has shown an ability to get a significant gain in electoral campaign from campaigning. This pattern is unreliable for appointed Senators or Governors who have never shown evidence that they can ever be elected.
But it is no longer early, so the incumbent should have numbers of at least 47% against an opponent by now to have a reasonable chance of winning.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/
