AZ-Gravis-McSally+1 (user search)
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  AZ-Gravis-McSally+1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ-Gravis-McSally+1  (Read 4696 times)
UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« on: September 09, 2018, 02:32:57 PM »

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2018, 02:40:53 PM »

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

McCain's funeral had a net positive effect on the GOP, just like the Reagan funeral did, but I don't think things are this simple for the GOP, there are huge deficits as far as the eye can see and entitlement reform should of been dealt with by Trump in addition to tax reform, and just like in 2006 and 2012, wave years for Dems, out of control spending, is trouble for the conservative movement.
Oh Dems will do very will in November. They're prohibitive favorites in the house and will limit their senate losses way below what they 'should' be based on PVI etc. But the notion that Arizona is a true purple state because Hillary overperformed there massively by winning over suburbanite R moderates is silly. Arizona remains a red state (though probably only for another ten years or so) and McSally just isn't the type of GOP nominee to drive away the 'moderate' R vote.

This race has GA-6 written all over it, and I guarantee you Sinema knows it - why do you think she is running to the right as fast as she can? Democrats have been talking up their chances in Arizona ever since 2016 so much that some of them started to actually believe it.

At least in Tennessee some Rs will actually vote for Bredesen, and in Texas Beto will gin up base turnout. Both of them will have more appeal to the voters they need to win than Sinema will to moderate Rs in the Phoenix suburbs - why would they vote for a pho-Republican when they can vote for a 'respectable' version of the real deal?

And no, this isn't some doom or gloom post for the Dems. Again, Dems will do very well overall in November. Just not in Arizona.
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UncleSam
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2018, 11:13:24 PM »


Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.


Right on cue!

Extra points for being of the "Sinema is horrendous, she'll lose by ~5%" variety
When McSally wins comfortably I'm sure you'll admit that I was right and won't just conveniently forget how delusional you were / are being

Trump will have to be indicted by Mueller for McSally to lose unless Sinema runs a campaign that has stronger appeal to the liberal base.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2018, 02:17:58 AM »

When McSally wins comfortably I'm sure you'll admit that I was right and won't just conveniently forget how delusional you were / are being

Trump will have to be indicted by Mueller for McSally to lose unless Sinema runs a campaign that has stronger appeal to the liberal base.

Maybe I don't pay enough attention, but you seem uncharacteristically bullish about McSally. It seems even weirder taken in the context of 2018's Senate map, where Democrats are defending multiple seats in far more Republican states.

Arizona is not exactly a huge lift anymore. Democrats almost did it for this very seat 6 years ago in a considerably less favorable cycle.
I think you’ll be surprised (as will a lot of people) at how little Arizona shifts left in comparison to the rest of the nation vs Hillary’s margins. I believed Sinema would win prior to the primaries and her massive campaign shift right combined with McSally overperforming in the R primary and the subsequent solidification of the state GOP around her. The reality is that McSally has a great bio for a state like Arizona and lukewarm liberals in the vein of Ossof will not do much better if any than Hillary did in 2016. The opportunity for Democrats this year lies primarily in two sources: first, in flipping traditional Democrats who voted for Trump grudgingly back to their column (they’re doing great at this), and second, in getting the base to show up in massive numbers (generally a great job done here as well).

 Neither of these factors is at play when the Democrats run to the center in a midterm election in a state that Trump basically got the floor for a GOP presidential nominee. Sinema simply doesn’t have the charisma a candidate like O’Rourke has, and in a midterm year her best chance was to pray that the tilt of the year would cause the base to flock to her and deliver a win based on turnout. She is not running the right campaign to capitalize on this, however, and is running almost at odds to Garcia to boot. The Dems are basically doing their best to underperform in Arizona this year and the state is not nearly as close to being a true swing state as many believe - again, the state feels extremely similar to GA-6 to me, and I suspect McSally will win by Handel-like margins or a bit stronger when all is said and done (and that Ducey will win by roughly the same margin - I think the Arizona races will go the same way by the same margin).

Again, this is not to suggest Dems will disappoint elsewhere - far from it. All the signs are pointing towards a poor showing in Arizona  relative to the national swing, however.

O’Rourke is at least trying to win in a far tougher and even less elastic state.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2018, 10:20:35 AM »

Why is there anything to explain lol. A low turnout special election does not resemble the electorate of a midterm, and the reason that the special itself was so close was because the Democrat ran a progressive campaign that appealed to the base, something Sinema is not doing.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2018, 10:28:52 AM »

Why is there anything to explain lol. A low turnout special election does not resemble the electorate of a midterm, and the reason that the special itself was so close was because the Democrat ran a progressive campaign that appealed to the base, something Sinema is not doing.

There was more votes cast in that "low turnout" election than the 2014 general election.
You know as well as I do that turnout in 2018 will be way higher than it was in 2014.

Anyway one of us will be right and there’s no point in arguing about it. Special elections are great at showing which base is more enthused, but even Nate Silver has admitted that special elections are the least useful of the major indicators (generic ballot, presidential approval rating, PVI, incumbency) at projecting individual outcomes. Expecting a midterm to mimic a special is silly.
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UncleSam
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2018, 11:32:59 AM »

Why is there anything to explain lol. A low turnout special election does not resemble the electorate of a midterm, and the reason that the special itself was so close was because the Democrat ran a progressive campaign that appealed to the base, something Sinema is not doing.

There was more votes cast in that "low turnout" election than the 2014 general election.
You know as well as I do that turnout in 2018 will be way higher than it was in 2014.

Yes turnout will probably equal the special's. That's the point.
Turnout will far exceed the special, but it’s a moot point to argue at this juncture. Again, one of us will be right - if you’re not convinced by my reasoning at this point then that’s fine, we will see in November
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