AZ-Gravis-McSally+1

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/09/09/gravis-marketing-2018-battleground-poll-arizona/

McSally 49
Sinema 48

Sep. 5-7, 882 likely voters

Toss-up as expected.

[IceSpear]

A tied race here wouldn't really be surprising at all. For one thing, Sinema was only up 4 during the fierce and divisive Republican primary. Secondly, she's an awful massively overrated candidate and has been running an awful massively overrated campaign, like I've been saying for months now. McSally on the under hand has been underrated and running a great campaign. People expected her to struggle against Ward and Arpaio, but she destroyed them with ease, getting a majority of the vote in the process and even outperforming McCain. Now she's running scathing attacks on Sinema and hitting her where it hurts while Sinema does nothing but run the same moderate hero ads she's been running for the past year. Yawn.

Sinema is lucky the political environment is so good for Dems that it could drag her over the finish line still. LOL at the posters and pundits that thought AZ was more likely to flip than NV because of "muh weak Rosen and McSally, muh strong Sinema and Heller, muh 6 month early polls."

[Blair]

I’ve had has this on my mind for a while- but I have a nagging feeling that McSally is going to win.

I was always surprised to see this race rated as at worst a toss up, or a relatively straight forward pickup. It seems strange for three reasons.

1.) Sinema has no strengths as a candiate- like she doesn’t have one quality/attribute that other canidiates have. She just seems like a standard Congresswoman wanting promotion.

2.) McSally is a relatively good candiate- military experience, seasoned campaigner, not a gaffe prone wreck or ridiculously unlikeable (see Ted Cruz or Marsha Blackburn)

3.) Arizona is yet to have its breakthrough- I don’t see what’s dramatically changed since 2016 to make it any anything other than close.

Would appreciate some hopefully data feedback as I know little about AZ in terms of voting behaviour/demographics

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I’ve had has this on my mind for a while- but I have a nagging feeling that McSally is going to win.

I was always surprised to see this race rated as at worst a toss up, or a relatively straight forward pickup. It seems strange for three reasons.

1.) Sinema has no strengths as a candiate- like she doesn’t have one quality/attribute that other canidiates have. She just seems like a standard Congresswoman wanting promotion.

2.) McSally is a relatively good candiate- military experience, seasoned campaigner, not a gaffe prone wreck or ridiculously unlikeable (see Ted Cruz or Marsha Blackburn)

3.) Arizona is yet to have its breakthrough- I don’t see what’s dramatically changed since 2016 to make it any anything other than close.

Would appreciate some hopefully data feedback as I know little about AZ in terms of voting behaviour/demographics

I feel this way about GA-GOV, where I don't see what's changed to make it anything other than Lean R.

[junior chįmp]

Sigh

2.) McSally is a relatively good candiate- military experience,

Research in my forthcoming book suggests that veterans don't always have an advantage in the general election. There are occasional years and races in which veterans do hold an edge over commensurate nonveterans. But usually veterans do about as well as similarly situated nonveterans in general elections.

https://www.amazon.com/Why-Veterans-Run-Presidential-Elections/dp/1439914362/

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A massive new study reviews the evidence on whether campaigning works. The answer's bleak.

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Roy Blunt, Ron Johnson, and Pat Toomey were just ozzing charisma

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Disappointing numbers, but it wouldn't be too surprising if they were accurate. AZ is the FL of the west. It's boomerville.

You morons are taking this poll too seriously.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Disappointing numbers, but it wouldn't be too surprising if they were accurate. AZ is the FL of the west. It's boomerville.

You morons are taking this poll too seriously.

I don't take Gravis seriously, I'm just stating it wouldn't be surprising if it was right.

[Politician]

A tied race here wouldn't really be surprising at all. For one thing, Sinema was only up 4 during the fierce and divisive Republican primary. Secondly, she's an awful massively overrated candidate and has been running an awful massively overrated campaign, like I've been saying for months now. McSally on the under hand has been underrated and running a great campaign. People expected her to struggle against Ward and Arpaio, but she destroyed them with ease, getting a majority of the vote in the process and even outperforming McCain. Now she's running scathing attacks on Sinema and hitting her where it hurts while Sinema does nothing but run the same moderate hero ads she's been running for the past year. Yawn.

Sinema is lucky the political environment is so good for Dems that it could drag her over the finish line still. LOL at the posters and pundits that thought AZ was more likely to flip than NV because of "muh weak Rosen and McSally, muh strong Sinema and Heller, muh 6 month early polls."

*rolls eyes so hard they fall out of my skull*

The "Rosen is a weak candidate" strawman has been beaten into the ground so much it's not even funny.

Also Rosen is a mediocre candidate, although she's better than Sinema (who is godawful).

[UWS]

I knew it that  McSally could get a boost over Sinema since she won the GOP primary by 25 percentage points.

[IceSpear]

A tied race here wouldn't really be surprising at all. For one thing, Sinema was only up 4 during the fierce and divisive Republican primary. Secondly, she's an awful massively overrated candidate and has been running an awful massively overrated campaign, like I've been saying for months now. McSally on the under hand has been underrated and running a great campaign. People expected her to struggle against Ward and Arpaio, but she destroyed them with ease, getting a majority of the vote in the process and even outperforming McCain. Now she's running scathing attacks on Sinema and hitting her where it hurts while Sinema does nothing but run the same moderate hero ads she's been running for the past year. Yawn.

Sinema is lucky the political environment is so good for Dems that it could drag her over the finish line still. LOL at the posters and pundits that thought AZ was more likely to flip than NV because of "muh weak Rosen and McSally, muh strong Sinema and Heller, muh 6 month early polls."

*rolls eyes so hard they fall out of my skull*

The "Rosen is a weak candidate" strawman has been beaten into the ground so much it's not even funny.

Also Rosen is a mediocre candidate, although she's better than Sinema (who is godawful).

Uh...it's not even a strawman. You yourself (along with everyone else and their mother here) just said she was, LOL.

[Person Man]

Disappointing numbers, but it wouldn't be too surprising if they were accurate. AZ is the FL of the west. It's boomerville.

You morons are taking this poll too seriously.

[erſatz-york]

Unbeatable Titan Martha McSally

[_]

>GRAVIS

[Progressive Pessimist]

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/09/09/gravis-marketing-2018-battleground-poll-arizona/

McSally 49
Sinema 48

Sep. 5-7, 882 likely voters

Toss-up as expected.

Yep. Even if it is a low quality poll, it's not too out of left field. Sinema is not guaranteed to win. At the same time though, this is the best possible time for a Democrat to be elected Senator in the Grand Canyon State.

[junior chįmp]

Just ask Debbie Lesko how the polls went with an R+22 electorate

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[Former Kentuckian]

Y'all are going wild over a Gravis poll within the margin of error. Never change, Atlas.

[UncleSam]

Also, inb4 Atlas declares Sinema is DOA.

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

Right on cue!

Extra points for being of the "Sinema is horrendous, she'll lose by ~5%" variety

When McSally wins comfortably I'm sure you'll admit that I was right and won't just conveniently forget how delusional you were / are being

Trump will have to be indicted by Mueller for McSally to lose unless Sinema runs a campaign that has stronger appeal to the liberal base.

[Virginiá]

When McSally wins comfortably I'm sure you'll admit that I was right and won't just conveniently forget how delusional you were / are being

Trump will have to be indicted by Mueller for McSally to lose unless Sinema runs a campaign that has stronger appeal to the liberal base.

Maybe I don't pay enough attention, but you seem uncharacteristically bullish about McSally. It seems even weirder taken in the context of 2018's Senate map, where Democrats are defending multiple seats in far more Republican states.

Arizona is not exactly a huge lift anymore. Democrats almost did it for this very seat 6 years ago in a considerably less favorable cycle.

[BudgieForce]

When McSally wins comfortably I'm sure you'll admit that I was right and won't just conveniently forget how delusional you were / are being

Trump will have to be indicted by Mueller for McSally to lose unless Sinema runs a campaign that has stronger appeal to the liberal base.

Maybe I don't pay enough attention, but you seem uncharacteristically bullish about McSally. It seems even weirder taken in the context of 2018's Senate map, where Democrats are defending multiple seats in far more Republican states.

Arizona is not exactly a huge lift anymore. Democrats almost did it for this very seat 6 years ago in a considerably less favorable cycle.

Yeah, usually UncleSam is very measured but nothing is pointing to a comfortable win for anybody in Arizona.

[UncleSam]

When McSally wins comfortably I'm sure you'll admit that I was right and won't just conveniently forget how delusional you were / are being

Trump will have to be indicted by Mueller for McSally to lose unless Sinema runs a campaign that has stronger appeal to the liberal base.

Maybe I don't pay enough attention, but you seem uncharacteristically bullish about McSally. It seems even weirder taken in the context of 2018's Senate map, where Democrats are defending multiple seats in far more Republican states.

Arizona is not exactly a huge lift anymore. Democrats almost did it for this very seat 6 years ago in a considerably less favorable cycle.

I think you’ll be surprised (as will a lot of people) at how little Arizona shifts left in comparison to the rest of the nation vs Hillary’s margins. I believed Sinema would win prior to the primaries and her massive campaign shift right combined with McSally overperforming in the R primary and the subsequent solidification of the state GOP around her. The reality is that McSally has a great bio for a state like Arizona and lukewarm liberals in the vein of Ossof will not do much better if any than Hillary did in 2016. The opportunity for Democrats this year lies primarily in two sources: first, in flipping traditional Democrats who voted for Trump grudgingly back to their column (they’re doing great at this), and second, in getting the base to show up in massive numbers (generally a great job done here as well).

 Neither of these factors is at play when the Democrats run to the center in a midterm election in a state that Trump basically got the floor for a GOP presidential nominee. Sinema simply doesn’t have the charisma a candidate like O’Rourke has, and in a midterm year her best chance was to pray that the tilt of the year would cause the base to flock to her and deliver a win based on turnout. She is not running the right campaign to capitalize on this, however, and is running almost at odds to Garcia to boot. The Dems are basically doing their best to underperform in Arizona this year and the state is not nearly as close to being a true swing state as many believe - again, the state feels extremely similar to GA-6 to me, and I suspect McSally will win by Handel-like margins or a bit stronger when all is said and done (and that Ducey will win by roughly the same margin - I think the Arizona races will go the same way by the same margin).

Again, this is not to suggest Dems will disappoint elsewhere - far from it. All the signs are pointing towards a poor showing in Arizona  relative to the national swing, however.

O’Rourke is at least trying to win in a far tougher and even less elastic state.

[Lachi]

Holy crap, that margin of error.

[Brittain33]

@unclesam:

How do you explain the results of the high-turnout AZ-8 special where Republicans had a +22% advantage in the electorate?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

@unclesam:

How do you explain the results of the high-turnout AZ-8 special where Republicans had a +22% advantage in the electorate?

That special election is by far the best reason to think that Sinema is favored. Debbie Lesko, basically a normal generic R, did even worse than Joe Arpaio.

Granted, McSally is a better candidate than Lesko was, but AZ as a whole is much less Republican than AZ-08 and Sinema is also a pretty strong candidate (though her apparent desire to run a Feingold-like "positive campaign" and failure to respond to attacks gives one pause). Also, all politics is national and candidate quality matters much less than it did a few decades ago.

Again based on AZ-08, I am pretty doubtful that Sinema will have a real problem with base turnout. In 2018, simply having a D next to your name is enough to get good base turnout. Democratic voters are for the most part motivated to vote in order to vote against Trump, not to vote for the Democratic candidates.

[UncleSam]

Why is there anything to explain lol. A low turnout special election does not resemble the electorate of a midterm, and the reason that the special itself was so close was because the Democrat ran a progressive campaign that appealed to the base, something Sinema is not doing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is there anything to explain lol. A low turnout special election does not resemble the electorate of a midterm, and the reason that the special itself was so close was because the Democrat ran a progressive campaign that appealed to the base, something Sinema is not doing.

There was more votes cast in that "low turnout" election than the 2014 general election.