NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1043448772280438784?s=21

So they've been "hearing how bad his numbers are for months", but keep it as a toss up all that time? Yet they have no problem moving other districts to lean R based on internals. Or moving PA-01 to lean R based on a public poll showing the Republican incumbent up 1 point...

Pundits this cycle have been pulling out all the stops for Republicans, so this doesnt surprise me.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1043448772280438784?s=21

So they've been "hearing how bad his numbers are for months", but keep it as a toss up all that time? Yet they have no problem moving other districts to lean R based on internals. Or moving PA-01 to lean R based on a public poll showing the Republican incumbent up 1 point...

Pundits this cycle have been pulling out all the stops for Republicans, so this doesnt surprise me.

Let me guess the reason pundits are doing this: "MUH 2016"

[Virginiá]

That will be self-correcting (at least at the House level) in 2022 if Dems are winning governorships in most of the states Trump won by less than 8.  Also, due to all of the gerrymandering, there is a threshold around a D+11 popular vote win where Dems go from winning 230-40ish seats to 290-300ish seats.  They may well cross that threshold at the rate things are going.

This will also be self-correcting in the EC once GA and TX are competitive statewide, and even faster if Trump's results in Michigan were really a one-off event.

The senate is the place to worry about for persistent skewed results vs. what national majorities want.  

I don't think D+11 is enough. I can't remember who it was, either Cohn or Silver, but they posted some numbers for this and said that the magic number for gerrymanders to start breaking down was around D+14 or D+15. This isn't really my forte though so all I can say is that I've read different from one of the punditocracy's more data-oriented peeps.

Although it's worth pointing out that D+11 may be enough for a gerrymander to break in one or two particular states, but not everywhere. Depends largely on where the most Democratic gains in support are coming from.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1043448772280438784?s=21

So they've been "hearing how bad his numbers are for months", but keep it as a toss up all that time? Yet they have no problem moving other districts to lean R based on internals. Or moving PA-01 to lean R based on a public poll showing the Republican incumbent up 1 point...

Pundits this cycle have been pulling out all the stops for Republicans, so this doesnt surprise me.

Let me guess the reason pundits are doing this: "MUH 2016"

Perhaps, it was the same thing with Democrats in 2010/2014.

[OkThen]

Man it feels like the TX-32 poll has been painstakingly slow. I'm pretty sure it's been stuck at 445 people polled for 2+ hours...

[Florida Man for Crime]

I started a new thread to talk about how National Popular Vote/GCB translates into seats, to stop this thread from going off topic.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302134.0

[Xing]

Man it feels like the TX-32 poll has been painstakingly slow. I'm pretty sure it's been stuck at 445 people polled for 2+ hours...

That poll is pretty much a hot mess, considering how they changed their weighting halfway through.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, I think the Pennsylvania gerrymander map as it was before the state supreme court invalidated it was probably the most vulnerable to being broken in a wave election. If it were the Ohio or North Carolina maps that got struck down instead, I think it would have actually had a bigger impact on the national situation, while it probably would have had the same impact if the Michigan map was struck down instead.

North Carolina and Ohio have extremely durable gerrymanders, that probably simultaneously resulted in Republicans winning multiple additional seats compared to what they would have won in a fair map, and kept all of the seats quite secure.

[cvparty]

how tf is andy kim leading by so much :O his lead is almost beyond the moe

[Pericles]

how tf is andy kim leading by so much his lead is almost beyond the moe

Guess MacArthur's constituents remember him being responsible for Trumpcare passing the House.

[Florida Man for Crime]

how tf is andy kim leading by so much his lead is almost beyond the moe

His lead is beyond the MOE. It was the same thing with Sharice Davids early in KS-03. It got closer, but she still has a solid lead with the poll almost done. NJ-03 could be similar.

[IceSpear]

how tf is andy kim leading by so much his lead is almost beyond the moe

Don’t take this poll seriously until we reach at least 150 people. We’re at 90.

[Gass3268]

Really slow day for responses.

[Xing]

how tf is andy kim leading by so much his lead is almost beyond the moe

Don’t take this poll seriously until we reach at least 150 people. We’re at 90.

Feel free to freak out at every minute change once we're at 151, however.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL Yoder.

[Florida Man for Crime]

THEY'RE GOING TO POLL NE-02!!!

[Zaybay]

THEY'RE GOING TO POLL NE-02!!!

YESSSS!!!

[ON Progressive]

THEY'RE GOING TO POLL NE-02!!!

YESSSS!!!

[Xing]

Atlas is going to get triggered so hard if Eastman ends up ahead. My prediction is Eastman +5, but if Bacon ends up even 1 point ahead at any point, we'll be getting lots of #analysis about how this race is Lean/Likely R with a #socialist but would be Safe D with Moderate Electable Megatitan Brad Ashford.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Atlas is going to get triggered so hard if Eastman ends up ahead. My prediction is Eastman +5, but if Bacon ends up even 1 point ahead at any point, we'll be getting lots of #analysis about how this race is Lean/Likely R with a #socialist but would be Safe D with Moderate Electable Megatitan Brad Ashford.

#analysis incoming ---> If the first respondent is for Bacon, this race is safe R. Triage Eastman!

[cvparty]

Atlas is going to get triggered so hard if Eastman ends up ahead. My prediction is Eastman +5, but if Bacon ends up even 1 point ahead at any point, we'll be getting lots of #analysis about how this race is Lean/Likely R with a #socialist but would be Safe D with Moderate Electable Megatitan Brad Ashford.

#analysis incoming ---> If the first respondent is for Bacon, this race is safe R. Triage Eastman!

THE FIRST RESPONDENT SUPPORTS EASTMAN. IT'S 100% FOR HER RIGHT NOW. SAFE D

[Florida Man for Crime]

THE FIRST RESPONDENT SUPPORTS EASTMAN. IT'S 100% FOR HER RIGHT NOW. SAFE D

It is a middle age white non-college independent male, also.

Exactly who Eastman's SOCIALIST POPULISM should be appealing to.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bacon will be ahead by 2-3 is my guess.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seems dumb to poll NJ-03 during the Eagles and the Giants games.

[Politician]

Don Bacon has taken the lead. I told you we need to nominate MODERATE HEROES like Brad Ashford. Bernie Sanders socialism doesn't play here. Titanium R.