TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2
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  TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2
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Author Topic: TN-SEN (NBC/Marist): Bredesen+2  (Read 12632 times)
TarHeelDem
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« Reply #25 on: September 06, 2018, 04:20:48 PM »

Beautiful poll! Tilt D.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #26 on: September 06, 2018, 04:21:51 PM »

Not sure what’s so surprising about this. This is very much in line with Marist's other polls, although better for Blackburn than I expected. Toss-up.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #27 on: September 06, 2018, 04:29:56 PM »

This is going to be a very close race. I know I sound like Captain Obvious here, but still.
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« Reply #28 on: September 06, 2018, 04:31:57 PM »

This is going to be a very close race. I know I sound like Captain Obvious here, but still.

That is not obvious at all. There have been lots of races in the past where polls have been close and then the actual results are not close. Substantial polling error does happen for various reasons, and indeed is the norm to a significant extent.
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« Reply #29 on: September 06, 2018, 04:35:09 PM »

Average error of Senate polls taken in August

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So this could easily end up being something like Bredesen +10 or Blackburn +6 (or more in either direction) by the time votes are actually counted.
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Xing
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« Reply #30 on: September 06, 2018, 04:45:29 PM »

Bredesen's numbers aren't as strong as they were earlier on in the cycle, but Blackburn is running out of time. I think that if Bredesen had entered the race in July and been up 10 a month ago, calling this Bayh 2.0 would be warranted, but this is definitely not the same situation. My gut tells me that Blackburn will pull it out thanks to the partisan lean of Tennessee, but I'm still not convinced that Texas is a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #31 on: September 06, 2018, 04:53:19 PM »

This poll is great, since he is nearly at 50%, but the trend line for Bredesen is really bad, as it seems hes losing support as time goes on. I worry what will happen to this race by election day.

You just said two contradicting things in your statement.
Not really, its good that he is near 50%, and that there are a lot of undecideds, but its bad because hes slowly bleeding support. Both can be true, it just depends on which way the race goes. The trend lines suggest that it will tighten, but Bredesen can also get a larger lead.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2018, 05:01:43 PM »

This poll is great, since he is nearly at 50%, but the trend line for Bredesen is really bad, as it seems hes losing support as time goes on. I worry what will happen to this race by election day.

You just said two contradicting things in your statement.
Not really, its good that he is near 50%, and that there are a lot of undecideds, but its bad because hes slowly bleeding support. Both can be true, it just depends on which way the race goes. The trend lines suggest that it will tighten, but Bredesen can also get a larger lead.

You said he was nearly at 50% and then said he's bleeding support...
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2018, 05:09:15 PM »

This poll simultaneously showing a R+13 lead for Governor? I'll take it. Go BIG Phil!
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Zaybay
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« Reply #34 on: September 06, 2018, 05:20:17 PM »

This poll is great, since he is nearly at 50%, but the trend line for Bredesen is really bad, as it seems hes losing support as time goes on. I worry what will happen to this race by election day.

You just said two contradicting things in your statement.
Not really, its good that he is near 50%, and that there are a lot of undecideds, but its bad because hes slowly bleeding support. Both can be true, it just depends on which way the race goes. The trend lines suggest that it will tighten, but Bredesen can also get a larger lead.

You said he was nearly at 50% and then said he's bleeding support...
yeah, he used to be at a much larger lead. What it shows is that
1. His base is solidifying-good
2. He is losing the voters he may need-bad
Its a pure tossup
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Skye
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« Reply #35 on: September 06, 2018, 06:35:18 PM »

Eh, it's clear that Blackburn is gaining ground, though we'll have to get closer to election day. I'll downgrade it to a Tossup for now.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #36 on: September 06, 2018, 06:36:27 PM »

Paging IceSpear
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #37 on: September 06, 2018, 07:22:23 PM »

Fail to see how Blackburn is moving in or Bredesen is trending down.

"he used to have a much larger lead"
"bredesen is trending down"

wut?

There has only been 3 polls of this race this entire summer, and one was Gravis. The last one was Gravis, actually, with Blackburn +4. So if we’re going by that, Bredesen is actually up. The one before that was Emerson with Bredesen +6 with RV, which is barely different than this one’s +4 RV. The one before that was from APRIL and had Bredesen +3. The only poll really out of line here was the Bredesen +10 from March which seemed like a clear outlier. Other than that, this race has been generally pretty damn close the entire time. Y'all are making up a narrative that doesn't exist.

Considering Bredesen has an enormous +40 favorable rating, and Blackburn only a +10… in Tennessee… and Trump has a +4 approval in a state that he won by 25, I’d say I’d rather be Bredesen now with less than two months to go.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #38 on: September 06, 2018, 07:44:56 PM »

Fail to see how Blackburn is moving in or Bredesen is trending down.

"he used to have a much larger lead"
"bredesen is trending down"

wut?

There has only been 3 polls of this race this entire summer, and one was Gravis. The last one was Gravis, actually, with Blackburn +4. So if we’re going by that, Bredesen is actually up. The one before that was Emerson with Bredesen +6 with RV, which is barely different than this one’s +4 RV. The one before that was from APRIL and had Bredesen +3. The only poll really out of line here was the Bredesen +10 from March which seemed like a clear outlier. Other than that, this race has been generally pretty damn close the entire time. Y'all are making up a narrative that doesn't exist.

Considering Bredesen has an enormous +40 favorable rating, and Blackburn only a +10… in Tennessee… and Trump has a +4 approval in a state that he won by 25, I’d say I’d rather be Bredesen now with less than two months to go.


Welcome to the Forum!  Nice first post.
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« Reply #39 on: September 06, 2018, 07:48:39 PM »

Fail to see how Blackburn is moving in or Bredesen is trending down.

"he used to have a much larger lead"
"bredesen is trending down"

wut?

There has only been 3 polls of this race this entire summer, and one was Gravis. The last one was Gravis, actually, with Blackburn +4. So if we’re going by that, Bredesen is actually up. The one before that was Emerson with Bredesen +6 with RV, which is barely different than this one’s +4 RV. The one before that was from APRIL and had Bredesen +3. The only poll really out of line here was the Bredesen +10 from March which seemed like a clear outlier. Other than that, this race has been generally pretty damn close the entire time. Y'all are making up a narrative that doesn't exist.

Considering Bredesen has an enormous +40 favorable rating, and Blackburn only a +10… in Tennessee… and Trump has a +4 approval in a state that he won by 25, I’d say I’d rather be Bredesen now with less than two months to go.


The new guy had to smack some sense into the naysayers.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #40 on: September 06, 2018, 07:51:20 PM »

Fail to see how Blackburn is moving in or Bredesen is trending down.

"he used to have a much larger lead"
"bredesen is trending down"

wut?

There has only been 3 polls of this race this entire summer, and one was Gravis. The last one was Gravis, actually, with Blackburn +4. So if we’re going by that, Bredesen is actually up. The one before that was Emerson with Bredesen +6 with RV, which is barely different than this one’s +4 RV. The one before that was from APRIL and had Bredesen +3. The only poll really out of line here was the Bredesen +10 from March which seemed like a clear outlier. Other than that, this race has been generally pretty damn close the entire time. Y'all are making up a narrative that doesn't exist.

Considering Bredesen has an enormous +40 favorable rating, and Blackburn only a +10… in Tennessee… and Trump has a +4 approval in a state that he won by 25, I’d say I’d rather be Bredesen now with less than two months to go.


Welcome to Atlas! This is superior to 70% of the content here so please stick around
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adrac
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« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2018, 07:58:11 PM »


This is absolutely incredible. I don't think there's time for Blackburn to drag his approvals down too much at this point. If he loses it will be in spite of his popularity with Tennesseans.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2018, 08:18:14 PM »

I still think the race is Lean R.  But this seems like a high quality poll with a very plausible result, and it bodes well for the Dems on several other fronts.

Also, while I think it is more likely than not that Blackburn will continue to inch up toward election day, there's gotta be a non-trivial chance that she pulls some sort of Todd Akin over the next eight weeks, right?  
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #43 on: September 06, 2018, 09:58:15 PM »

Fail to see how Blackburn is moving in or Bredesen is trending down.

"he used to have a much larger lead"
"bredesen is trending down"

wut?

There has only been 3 polls of this race this entire summer, and one was Gravis. The last one was Gravis, actually, with Blackburn +4. So if we’re going by that, Bredesen is actually up. The one before that was Emerson with Bredesen +6 with RV, which is barely different than this one’s +4 RV. The one before that was from APRIL and had Bredesen +3. The only poll really out of line here was the Bredesen +10 from March which seemed like a clear outlier. Other than that, this race has been generally pretty damn close the entire time. Y'all are making up a narrative that doesn't exist.

Considering Bredesen has an enormous +40 favorable rating, and Blackburn only a +10… in Tennessee… and Trump has a +4 approval in a state that he won by 25, I’d say I’d rather be Bredesen now with less than two months to go.


Absolutely, and he's almost at 50 in this poll, which is a good sign that he's raised the ceiling.
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jfern
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« Reply #44 on: September 06, 2018, 10:30:11 PM »

This poll is great, since he is nearly at 50%, but the trend line for Bredesen is really bad, as it seems hes losing support as time goes on. I worry what will happen to this race by election day.

He will likely go Bayh Bayh.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #45 on: September 06, 2018, 10:43:54 PM »

This poll is great, since he is nearly at 50%, but the trend line for Bredesen is really bad, as it seems hes losing support as time goes on. I worry what will happen to this race by election day.

He will likely go Bayh Bayh.

Yeah, he should have run governor again (if he can idk TN's rule on non conseq stuff) and if not some state house or senate seat like Beth Harwell's.
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« Reply #46 on: September 06, 2018, 11:17:55 PM »

So I am reading elsewhere that Marist does not weight by education. Because college educated voters are generally more likely to get polled, that could mean that the sample may be a bit too Dem friendly.
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« Reply #47 on: September 06, 2018, 11:18:58 PM »

So I am reading elsewhere that Marist does not weight by education. Because college educated voters are generally more likely to get polled, that could mean that the sample may be a bit too Dem friendly.
Yikes, Bredesen seems DOA, especially since Dems have been bleeding in non-educated demographics due to their elitism.
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Lachi
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« Reply #48 on: September 06, 2018, 11:29:18 PM »

So I am reading elsewhere that Marist does not weight by education. Because college educated voters are generally more likely to get polled, that could mean that the sample may be a bit too Dem friendly.
Where is this elsewhere?
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« Reply #49 on: September 06, 2018, 11:59:51 PM »


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