Even more House seats!
District 134:Democrat: Thomas ApplebachRepublican: Ryan Mackenzie (I)A partial Berks/Lehigh County district, District 134 has been almost competitive in some past elections, especially in 2012. However, overall this district has a significant Republican advantage.
Likely R.District 135:Democrat: Steve Samuelson (I)Uncontested partial Northampton County district, including parts of Bethlehem city.
Strong D.District 136:Democrat: Robert Freeman (I)Uncontested partial Northampton County district, including the county seat city of Easton.
Strong D.District 137:Democrat: Amy CozzeRepublican: Joe Emrick (I)Libertarian: Ed ReaganAnother partial Northampton County district, this one was represented by a Democrat up until 2010, but since then has elected a Republican representative by comfortable margins. This is almost a Likely R seat, but because of the wave, plus a Libertarian candidate in the mix, I'm going to rate it as a little bit more vulnerable.
Lean R.District 138:Democrat: Dean DonaherRepublican: Marcia Hahn (I)Libertarian: Jake TowneAlso a partial Northampton County district, this one is similar to the prior district, and is in much the same situation, with a Republican incumbent and both a Democratic and Libertarian challenger.
Lean R.District 139:Democrat: Orlando MarreroRepublican: Michael Peifer (I)A partial Wayne/Pike County district that is pretty Republican, District 139's incumbent Peifer hasn't been challenged for his seat in a decade. That changed this year, but it looks very unlikely that challenger Marrero will unseat him, as both primaries were uncontested, and the Republican primary garnered nearly three times as many votes.
Strong R.District 140:Democrat: John Galloway (I)Uncontested partial Bucks County district.
Strong D.District 141:Democrat: Tina Davis (I)Republican: Anthony SposatoIn this partial Bucks County district, incumbent Tina Davis barely won the seat by 2 points in 2010, but since then, has been re-elected by more comfortable margins. Those include taking 72 percent of the vote in 2012 against current challenger Anthony Sposato, and it looks unlikely that Davis will do any worse this year.
Strong D.District 142:Democrat: Lauren LareauRepublican: Frank Farry (I)A more northern Bucks County district, this district has had only had one term of Democratic control since 1969. The Republican lean of this district should keep it in in Farry's hands.
Likely R.District 143:Democrat: Wendy UllmanRepublican: Joseph FloodAn open northern partial Bucks County district, this seat looks to be very competitive this cycle. If this seat wasn't an open seat, I'd rate it as Lean/Tilt R, but the loss of longtime incumbent Marguerite Quinn will open the race up more, and more Democrats came out to vote in the primary than Republicans.
Tossup.District 144:Democrat: Meredith BuckRepublican: F. Todd PolinchockIt's another partial Bucks County district! This one is also an open Republican seat, but looks to be a bit more Republican than the previous district, based off primary numbers. However, this one is gonna be tight, too.
Tossup.District 145:Democrat: Brian KlineRepublican: Craig Staats (I)Guess which county we're in? You guessed right, this is another partial Bucks County district. This one has an incumbent, but his vote margins in 2016 were some of the smallest of the Bucks County Republicans. He might be able to hold on, but he's going to have to fight for it.
Tilt R.District 146:Democrat: Joseph CiresiRepublican: Thomas Quigley (I)This partial Montgomery County district has a messy electoral history. Incumbent Quigley represented the district from 2004 to 2012, then lost the district to Mark Painter, then took it back in 2014, and then fended off current challenger Joseph Cirsei by only 3 points in 2016. It looks like Cirsei's second shot at the seat was well-timed.
Tilt D.District 147:Democrat: Joshua CameronRepublican: Marcy Toepel (I)Another partial Montgomery County district, this one is significantly more Republican. GOP vote margins sit around the 2 to 1 range, and it's unlikely that can be made up enough to make it competitive.
Likely R.District 148:Democrat: Mary Jo Daley (I)Uncontested partial Montgomery County district.
Strong D.District 149:Democrat: Tim Briggs (I)Uncontested partial Montgomery County district.
Strong D.District 150:Democrat: Joseph WebsterRepublican: Nick FountainAnother partial Montgomery County district, this one is an open Republican seat, and should be very competitive. The electoral environment, plus a slight edge in the primary vote totals, looks to give Webster the edge this cycle.
Tilt D.District 151:Democrat: Sara Johnson RothmanRepublican: Todd Stephens (I)Partial Montgomery County district. This is a competitive district, and it's going to come down to turnout and Democratic energy versus incumbency and the slight Republican lean of the district.
Tilt R.District 152:Democrat: Daryl BolingRepublican: Thomas Murt (I)This partial Montgomery County district also includes a little chunk of Philadelphia, and has not been represented by a Democrat in 50 years. However, Democratic turnout in the primary was 125% of Republican turnout, so there's clearly energy in this race, and it looks to be competitive. This could easily move to Tilt R/Tossup closer to November.
Lean R.District 153:Democrat: Ben SanchezRepublican: Douglas Beaver Jr.Libertarian: Marc BozzaccoA partial Montgomery County district, District 153's former Democratic incumbent Madeleine Dean regularly won re-election by 2-1 margins. The seat is open now, but with the partisan lean, electoral environment, and Libertarian candidate siphoning off traditionally Republican votes, this seat should stay on the Dem side of the aisle.
Strong D.District 154:Democrat: Steve McCarter (I)Republican: Kathleen BowersWe're still in Montgomery County, and this district is a 4-1 Democratic district. For some reason, Republicans keep challenging McCarter, and he keeps crushing them. Not likely to change this year.
Strong D.District 155:Democrat: Danielle OttenRepublican: Becky Corbin (I)A partial Chester County district, this is one to watch. District 155 has had Democratic representatives in the past, but not since 1990. Incumbent Becky Corbin is vulnerable in this cycle, though she managed to pull nearly as many voters in the primary as the contested Democratic primary. I'm going to give this to her for now, but only just.
Tilt R.District 156:Democrat: Carolyn Comitta (I)Republican: Nicholas DeminskiAlso part of Chester County, this district is going to be tight. Current incumbent Comitta squeaked out a win in 2016 by 25 votes, and both uncontested primaries this year were separated by only 3 votes, but she should hang onto this seat based off of the polling we've seen of the Philly suburbs this cycle.
Tilt D.District 157:Democrat: Melissa ShustermanRepublican: Warren Kampf (I)Partial Chester/Montgomery County district, and incumbent Warren Kampf should be very, very scared. He won by 12 points in 2016, but previous elections saw him winning by as close as 2 points, and the uncontested Democratic primary turned out almost 1,400 more voters than the uncontested GOP primary. He's very much in trouble.
Tilt D.District 158:Democrat: Christina SappeyRepublican: Eric Roe (I)Another partial Chester County district, this one should also be close. In the good Republican cycle in 2016, incumbent Eric Roe only managed to win by 6 points, and the contested Republican primary this year only drew 127 more voters than the Democratic one.
Tossup.District 159:Democrat: Brian Kirkland (I)Republican: Ruth MotonThis Delaware County district was won in 2016 by incumbent Kirkland with 75% of the vote. This year's challenger Ruth Moton won't topple him, barring a miracle.
Strong D.District 160:Democrat: Anton AndrewRepublican: Stephen Barrar (I)District 160 is split between Chester/Delaware County, and incumbent Barrar regularly wins over 60% of the vote. He's not likely to lose this district, though it could be his tightest re-election in a long time.
Likely R.District 161:Democrat: Leanne Krueger-Braneky (I)Republican: Patti Rodgers MorrisetteA Delaware County district, this is a very competitive area. Out of the past five elections, only one candidate was able to win more than 55% of the vote. In 2016, current incumbent Krueger-Braneky held the seat by only 2 points. Her challenger from that election wants a rematch, but will probably not be able to take the seat, especially if suburban swing goes the way polling has suggested.
Tilt D.District 162:Democrat: David DellosoRepublican: Mary HopperThis riverside Delaware County district is much more Republican than most Delaware County districts, and though former incumbent Nick Miccarelli retired, leaving the seat open, the partisan lean of the district should allow Mary Hopper to hold the seat for the GOP.
Likely R.District 163:Democrat: Michael ZabelRepublican: Jamie Santora (I)Another Delaware County district, this one is more competitive. Republicans have not been able to break 55% of the vote since 2010, and this cycle should be tough for incumbent Santora.
Tossup.District 164:Democrat: Margo Davidson (I)Republican: Inderjit BainsIn this Delaware County district, incumbent Davidson only won the seat in her initial 2010 election by about 7 points. However, since then, she's settled out at around 80% of the vote, and in a rematch of 2016 against Bains, she's unlikely to lose.
Strong D.District 165:Democrat: Jennifer OmaraRepublican: Alexander Charlton (I)The current incumbent of this Delaware County district won the seat in 2016 by 12 points, and this is his second term, so voters will have had a chance to get comfortable with him. This isn't the most competitive Delaware County district, but as stated in other races, suburban swing, electoral environment, and incumbency are all going to be big factors here.
Tilt R.District 166:Democrat: Gregory Vitali (I)Republican: Baltazar RubioSplit between Delaware County and Montgomery County, District 166's incumbent Vitali has represented the district since the year of my birth, and seems to have been steadily increasing his win margins in recent elections. I wouldn't rate him as vulnerable.
Strong D.District 167:Democrat: Kristine HowardRepublican: Duane Milne (I)We're hopping back over to Chester County for this district, which has leaned Republican in recent elections. I'd have to do more research into the 2016 race to find out why incumbent Milne dropped 4.5 points between 2014 and 2016, but even with that anamalous statistic, Milne looks like the favorite to win.
Lean R.District 168:Democrat: Kristin SealeRepublican: Christopher Quinn (I)Heading back into Delaware County, this district is yet another competitive one. Current incumbent Quinn won the seat in 2016 with 56% of the vote, so it's down to how much his legislative record and recognition bonus weigh against energized Democratic voters.
Tilt R.District 169:Democrat: Sarah HammondRepublican: Kate Anne Klunk (I)Electoral information was a little hard to get for this York County district, but based on what I could find, and looking at the demographics of the area, it looks like incumbent Klunk should be holding this seat after November.
Strong R.District 170:Democrat: Michael Doyle JrRepublican: Martina White (I)This Philadelphia district has to be a top target for state Dems, as it was represented until 2015 by Democrat Brendan Boyle. Current incumbent Martina White won the special election to replace him, and managed to hold her seat in 2016 with less than 54% of the vote. This cycle looks dire for her, as Democrat Doyle Jr garnered nearly 1,200 more uncontested primary votes than uncontested incumbent White did, in a district that was decided by only around 2,000 votes last cycle.
Tilt D.District 171:Democrat: Erin McCrackenRepublican: Kerry Benninghoff (I)This district spans parts of Centre County and Mifflin County, and is pretty Republican. Challenger McCracken managed to draw pretty close in primary vote totals, but incumbent Benninghoff is still the heavy favorite here.
Likely R.District 172:Democrat: Kevin Boyle (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district that also includes a tiny bit of Montgomery County.
Strong D.District 173:Democrat: Michael Driscoll (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 174:Democrat: Edward Neilson (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 175:Democrat: Mary IsaacsonUncontested open Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 176:Democrat: Claudette WilliamsRepublican: Jack Rader Jr (I)This 30%+ minority Monroe County district leans more Republican than I initially expected, and a contested primary on the Democratic side didn't come anywhere near the vote total of the uncontested Republican primary. Despite some historically close elections in this district, it doesn't look to be super competitive this cycle.
Lean R.District 177:Democrat: Joseph HohensteinRepublican: Patty KozlowskiBack to Philadelphia, and this district is another hot one! Republican incumbent since 1985 John Taylor is not up for re-election this cycle, and the winner of the 4-way Democratic primary still managed to get more primary votes than Republican Kozlowski, even with his winning percentage of only 37%. This looks to be a pickup for Dems.
Lean D.District 178:Democrat: Helen Tai (I)Republican: Wendi ThomasIn this Bucks County district, incumbent Helen Tai has only held the seat since this May's special election, which she won by only 2 points. In the primary elections, also held in May, Thomas garnered about 400 more votes than Tai, which suggests that independents broke harder for Tai. I'm going to give Tai the winner's Tilt advantage, but this is going to be close.
Tilt D.District 179:Democrat: Jason Dawkins (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 180:Democrat: Angel Cruz (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 181:Democrat: Malcolm KenyattaRepublican: Thomas StreetTo give you an idea of how Democratic this open Philadelphia district is, 57 times as many Democrats voted in the primary as Republicans.
Strong D.District 182:Democrat: Brian Sims (I)Independent: James McDevittThis Philadelphia district is represented by Daryl Metcalfe target, queer PA icon, and consummate daddy, Brian Sims. He's facing an outside challenge by also gay independent James McDevitt, who is running to the left of Sims(on some issues, not all), and also focusing on issues in the racial minority portions of the Philly queer community. However, I couldn't find a campaign website for McDevitt, and only some rudimentary Facebook pages. Either way this race goes, the winner would caucus with the Dems, and Sims will probably hold the seat.
Strong D.District 183:Democrat: Jason RuffRepublican: Zachary Mako (I)For District 183, we're headed back up to Lehigh County and Northampton County, and to an incumbent with a cool shark last name. Mako won the seat in 2016 with 58% of the vote, but Jason Ruff only got 500 less primary votes than Mako, so it looks to be significantly tighter than 2016. Still advantage Mako.
Lean R.District 184:Democrat: Elizabeth FiedlerUncontested open Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 185:Democrat: Maria Donatucci (I)Uncontested Delaware County and Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 186:Democrat: Jordan Harris (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 187:Democrat: Michael Blichar JrRepublican: Gary Day (I)This Berks/Lehigh County district has a pretty Republican lean, and current challenger Blichar Jr got on the ballot after primary winner Archie Follweiler withdrew in June.
Likely R.District 188:Democrat: James Roebuck Jr (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 189:Democrat: Adam RodriguezRepublican: Rosemary Brown (I)In this Monroe/Pike County district, incumbent Rosemary Brown has built up comfortable 63%+ wins the past two elections, though if you look towards the beginning of her tenure in this seat, the margins drop by almost 10 points. This should be a tougher year for her than usual, though she starts off as the favorite, due to both her tenure and a lackluster Democratic primary.
Lean R.District 190:Democrat: Vanessa Lowery Brown (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 191:Democrat: Joanna McClinton (I)Uncontested Delaware County/Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 192:Democrat: Morgan Cephas (I)Uncontested Philadelphia district.
Strong D.District 193:Democrat: Matthew NelsonRepublican: Torren EckerHeavily Republican open Adams/Cumberland County district. Republicans regularly win 70%+ of the vote.
Strong R.District 194:Democrat: Pamela DeLissio (I)Republican: Sean StevensLibertarian: Matthew BaltsarMontgomery County/Philadelphia district with a hefty Democratic advantage. Toss in a Libertarian candidate, and DeLissio looks very safe.
Strong D.Last batch of seats, starting with District 195: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300810.msg6407560#msg6407560