...wow. If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad. Like...really bad.
If you compare those numbers to 2016...
Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.
Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.
Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.
Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.
Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics. Anything can happen. However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!
If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.
A place like Hamilton County may be in the single digits for Braun.
Yeah, I think there is a decent chance that Braun in the suburbs turns out to be what we thought vs what happened for Gillespie in NOVA in 2017, myself included as well.
I am changing this race rating in my opinion from Tilt R---> Tilt D. Those two polls showing Braun ahead by 1-2 points was just a primary bump after a thriller primary while Donnelly was hibernating during that time. Then we got the Banks internal that showed Donnelly only down by 8 points (losing 50-42) in Indiana 3rd, then that trafalgar thing which was obviously junk, but I still kept it on the back burner of my mind for some reason. Then this poll came out, and that was the third strike and it was enough for me to reconsider. The thing that looked pretty bad for Braun too is Trump is not beloved in Indiana, so he can't even really attempt too strong of a bailout for Braun like he can for even people like Morrisey and Cramer. Maybe Pence could help out though, I guess we will see. But I can tell you that I have seen enough to move this race into Donnelly's column for at least now.
