IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6

[libertpaulian]

YAAAASSSSSS KWEEEEN

GO JOE GO!

Donnelly's been underestimated before.

[libertpaulian]

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...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.

[libertpaulian]

I am reminded of 2016 where Holcomb did not lead in a single poll post-Labor Day, yet still won by 6%. Hopefully INGOP will have similar success in 2018.

My only bones to pick with that are 1) we don't have Trump/Pence on top of the ballot, 2) anti-Trumpers will be more motivated to vote this year, and 3) Holcomb started to erase Gregg's lead in the last week.

We don't know if that analogy will work as of yet.