IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6 (user search)
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  IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6  (Read 14539 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 05, 2018, 04:03:37 PM »

This is NBC/Marist, so I’m going to guess Donnelly +8.

Almost.

So much for Donnelly being much more vulnerable than McCaskill, though.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2018, 04:16:56 PM »

IN, MO and FL definitely aren’t safe D, lol. ND is probably the best pick-up opportunity for the GOP at this point, though.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2018, 10:33:46 AM »



Wow, I agree with "several top R strategists" for once, although I’m not sure about that "by far" part. ND, MO, FL are the pure Tossups, with IN Tilt/Lean D right now. WV and MT are Lean D.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2018, 10:44:39 AM »





I’ve never understood why people were so convinced that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2018, 11:14:09 AM »

...weren’t you literally one of those people

At some point I thought it was likely, that’s true, but I never considered it a sure thing, and the "Hawley is the worst candidate ever, outsider Braun is so strong omg he is going to ruin Democrats' hopes for a Senate majority, McCaskill is ALWAYS underestimated and anyone who disagrees with that only does so because they hate her personally, MO more ancestrally D down-ballot than IN, etc." hype was probably way too overdone with hindsight.

I definitely overestimated Heitkamp though, to put it charitably. It would still be foolish to count her out, of course, but my pessimism wasn’t really warranted. I remember thinking she had Susan Collins or even lifer potential.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2018, 12:42:28 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2018, 12:46:21 PM by McCaskill 2020 »

This is NBC/Marist, so I’m going to guess Donnelly +8.

Have any of their polls been particularly unbelievable aside from that one in Wisconsin? Recently they had a tie in MO, Pritzker up double digits in IL, Casey/Wolf up double digits in PA, and Cruz up 4/Abbott up double digits in TX, which is basically the same as the consensus in all those races.

See, this is what I meant, but apparently it was "hackish" to be skeptical of their IN/MO/WI/OH/etc. numbers.
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