IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6

[Xing]

So much for Donnelly being much more vulnerable than McCaskill, though.

I mean, Marist is a pretty good pollster, but I'd like to see more than one poll before concluding that with certainty, though.

Still a Toss-Up for now, but it does seem like Donnelly may have been underestimated (or maybe Braun was overestimated?)

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1037717003660943360

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1037718280507727873?s=19

I’ve never understood why people were so convinced that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill.

Probably because of their respective margins in 2012, but one major problem with that (other than assuming uniform swing from 2012) is that Mourdock's gaffe came very late in the game, whereas Akin's happened in August, so it stands to reason that McCaskill benefitted much more than Donnelly did.

Anyway, I never understood why people assumed that Heitkamp was far less vulnerable than McCaskill and Donnelly.