IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6
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  IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6
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Author Topic: IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6  (Read 14156 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #50 on: September 05, 2018, 05:44:33 PM »

This is NBC/Marist, so I’m going to guess Donnelly +8.

Almost.

So much for Donnelly being much more vulnerable than McCaskill, though.

Both Donnelly and McCaskill have been under estimated before. At the end I think both finish fairly closely.

And IceSpear yes I do believe Donnelly could win over 60% in Hamilton County.

But several posters told me that Perfect Fit For The Suburbs™ Hillary Clinton already hit the Democratic ceiling in the suburbs, and that Trump (or ESPECIALLY a "normal" Republican) would do far better there even though basically every Republican candidate since 2016 has done worse than him in the suburbs, and sometimes significantly worse!
Democrats have been over performing far more in rural areas than in suburbs.

Not really.

KS-04: Thompson kept it relatively close because he cleaned up in Wichita and the suburbs, even winning Sedgwick County. He got crushed in the rural areas.
MT-AL: Quist mostly ran up the score in what passes for urban/suburban areas in Montana like Missoula, Bozeman (Gallatin County), Helena (Lewis and Clark County), and Butte (Silver Bow County.) He still got curbstomped in the rural areas.
VA-Gov: Northam did even better than Clinton in NoVa which hardly anyone expected, while also making massive improvements in the Virginia Beach and Richmond suburbs. He did far worse than even McAuliffe in the rural areas.
AL-Sen: Moore actually did better in the rural areas than he did in 2012. He lost because he got burbstomped in the Birmingham/Mobile/Huntsville cities and their suburbs, along with the Black Belt. Look at the swing in Jefferson, Shelby, and Madison Counties.
PA-18: Lamb won because of the Pittsburbstomping in Allegheny County, he was still soundly rejected in Washington/Greene/Westmoreland Counties.
AZ-08: Dems got a massive swing in a heavily Republican district that consists entirely of Phoenix suburbs.
OH-12: Same story as PA-18 basically, with a slightly different ending. O'Connor dominated in suburban Columbus (Franklin County) and put in an amazing performance for a Democrat in suburban Delaware County. It wasn't quite enough to make up for the thumping he got in the rural areas of the district.

Really the only counter example and the reason the whole "suburbs are fools gold" narrative got started is because of GA-06, which is a pretty obvious outlier at this point.
Yep, Dems are DOA in rural areas at this point.  Does not bode well for the Senate.
Democrats won special elections in rural districts Trump won by 30 points, lol.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #51 on: September 05, 2018, 06:47:37 PM »

New Poll: Indiana Senator by Marist College on 2018-08-29

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #52 on: September 05, 2018, 07:48:57 PM »

I'm trying to imagine a world where a Democrat gets re-elected in Indiana, yet another Democrat loses in Florida.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #53 on: September 05, 2018, 09:26:18 PM »

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...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #54 on: September 05, 2018, 09:28:52 PM »

Donnelly isn't gonna lose
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #55 on: September 05, 2018, 10:05:07 PM »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned AZ.  I don't recall seeing any post-primary polls there.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #56 on: September 05, 2018, 10:42:24 PM »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned AZ.  I don't recall seeing any post-primary polls there.

Because we already know that Prada Socialist Queen Sinema will be up by a bit.
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OneJ
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« Reply #57 on: September 05, 2018, 10:43:42 PM »

If it’s not North Dakota, I hope it’s either Tennessee or Mississippi.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #58 on: September 05, 2018, 11:11:54 PM »

Toss-Up
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Devils30
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« Reply #59 on: September 05, 2018, 11:16:28 PM »

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...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.


A place like Hamilton County may be in the single digits for Braun.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #60 on: September 05, 2018, 11:31:09 PM »

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...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.


A place like Hamilton County may be in the single digits for Braun.

Yeah, I think there is a decent chance that Braun in the suburbs turns out to be what we thought vs what happened for Gillespie in NOVA in 2017, myself included as well.

I am changing this race rating in my opinion from Tilt R---> Tilt D. Those two polls showing Braun ahead by 1-2 points was just a primary bump after a thriller primary while Donnelly was hibernating during that time. Then we got the Banks internal that showed Donnelly only down by 8 points (losing 50-42) in Indiana 3rd, then that trafalgar thing which was obviously junk, but I still kept it on the back burner of my mind for some reason. Then this poll came out, and that was the third strike and it was enough for me to reconsider. The thing that looked pretty bad for Braun too is Trump is not beloved in Indiana, so he can't even really attempt too strong of a bailout for Braun like he can for even people like Morrisey and Cramer. Maybe Pence could help out though, I guess we will see. But I can tell you that I have seen enough to move this race into Donnelly's column for at least now.
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Badger
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« Reply #61 on: September 05, 2018, 11:34:32 PM »

People are really underestimating Democrats chance at flipping the senate.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #62 on: September 06, 2018, 01:26:34 AM »

Donnelly is more safe than Nelson at this point. I'd rate this race as tilt D for the moment.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #63 on: September 06, 2018, 02:29:19 AM »

Beautiful poll! The fundamentals, Donnelly's incumbency advantage, and the polling makes this race at least Tilt D.
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Skye
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« Reply #64 on: September 06, 2018, 10:15:14 AM »

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #65 on: September 06, 2018, 10:27:05 AM »

Where’s that Marist poll we were promised well over an hour ago?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #66 on: September 06, 2018, 10:29:08 AM »



Yeah ND is quickly becoming my main concern, if for no reason other than that it’s a data black hole
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Zaybay
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« Reply #67 on: September 06, 2018, 10:30:08 AM »



Yeah ND is quickly becoming my main concern, if for no reason other than that it’s a data black hole
I agree, it does seem that ND is the only seat that is truly R favoured, or a complete tossup. All of our other seats are D favoured at the moment.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #68 on: September 06, 2018, 10:33:46 AM »



Wow, I agree with "several top R strategists" for once, although I’m not sure about that "by far" part. ND, MO, FL are the pure Tossups, with IN Tilt/Lean D right now. WV and MT are Lean D.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #69 on: September 06, 2018, 10:34:37 AM »

I am reminded of 2016 where Holcomb did not lead in a single poll post-Labor Day, yet still won by 6%. Hopefully INGOP will have similar success in 2018.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #70 on: September 06, 2018, 10:34:47 AM »



Yeah ND is quickly becoming my main concern, if for no reason other than that it’s a data black hole

I was called a concern troll once upon a time for saying ND was the most likely Republican gain
Atlas will call you a hack/troll no matter what you argue
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Skye
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« Reply #71 on: September 06, 2018, 10:37:54 AM »

I am reminded of 2016 where Holcomb did not lead in a single poll post-Labor Day, yet still won by 6%. Hopefully INGOP will have similar success in 2018.

Certainly didn't hurt him that Trump won IN by 19.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #72 on: September 06, 2018, 10:42:56 AM »



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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #73 on: September 06, 2018, 10:44:39 AM »





I’ve never understood why people were so convinced that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #74 on: September 06, 2018, 10:46:55 AM »





I’ve never understood why people were so convinced that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill.

I never understand why people had both Donnelly and McCaskill going down by larger margins than Blanche Lincoln did.
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