IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6
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  IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6
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Author Topic: IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6  (Read 14160 times)
TheSaint250
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« Reply #75 on: September 06, 2018, 10:47:45 AM »

I’ve never understood why people were so convinced that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #76 on: September 06, 2018, 10:51:50 AM »





I’ve never understood why people were so convinced that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill.

Probably because of their respective margins in 2012, but one major problem with that (other than assuming uniform swing from 2012) is that Mourdock's gaffe came very late in the game, whereas Akin's happened in August, so it stands to reason that McCaskill benefitted much more than Donnelly did.

Anyway, I never understood why people assumed that Heitkamp was far less vulnerable than McCaskill and Donnelly.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #77 on: September 06, 2018, 10:52:37 AM »

MO has always seemed to dislike McCaskill, while Donnelly seems a pretty good fit for IN.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #78 on: September 06, 2018, 10:53:04 AM »

I am reminded of 2016 where Holcomb did not lead in a single poll post-Labor Day, yet still won by 6%. Hopefully INGOP will have similar success in 2018.
My only bones to pick with that are 1) we don't have Trump/Pence on top of the ballot, 2) anti-Trumpers will be more motivated to vote this year, and 3) Holcomb started to erase Gregg's lead in the last week.

We don't know if that analogy will work as of yet.

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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #79 on: September 06, 2018, 11:14:09 AM »

...weren’t you literally one of those people

At some point I thought it was likely, that’s true, but I never considered it a sure thing, and the "Hawley is the worst candidate ever, outsider Braun is so strong omg he is going to ruin Democrats' hopes for a Senate majority, McCaskill is ALWAYS underestimated and anyone who disagrees with that only does so because they hate her personally, MO more ancestrally D down-ballot than IN, etc." hype was probably way too overdone with hindsight.

I definitely overestimated Heitkamp though, to put it charitably. It would still be foolish to count her out, of course, but my pessimism wasn’t really warranted. I remember thinking she had Susan Collins or even lifer potential.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #80 on: September 06, 2018, 11:15:53 AM »

I am the only one who has ever always had MO-Sen 2018 as a toss up. Right now a majority of predictions, by a laughably wide margin, have McCaskill wining.

I only have FL and MO shifting from D to R right now.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #81 on: September 06, 2018, 11:21:33 AM »

I am reminded of 2016 where Holcomb did not lead in a single poll post-Labor Day, yet still won by 6%. Hopefully INGOP will have similar success in 2018.

Certainly didn't hurt him that Trump won IN by 19.

It also didnt hurt that Obama was in the White House and Hillary was on the ballot....2 of the greatest motivators for the increasingly derranged GOP electorate
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #82 on: September 06, 2018, 02:57:44 PM »

I don't see Dems losing any more than one, maybe two seats.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #83 on: September 06, 2018, 05:30:48 PM »

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...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.


A place like Hamilton County may be in the single digits for Braun.

Yeah, I think there is a decent chance that Braun in the suburbs turns out to be what we thought vs what happened for Gillespie in NOVA in 2017, myself included as well.

Maybe Pence could help out though, I guess we will see.

Pence could've lost Hamilton County if he ran for Governor in 2016. He wasn't going to win the state at all. This myth that Pence was a popular figure in Indiana who can save the INGOP needs to go away, especially in the suburbs, where he was most unpopular in comparison to a generic Indiana Republican (ala Eric Holcomb or Mitch Daniels)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #84 on: September 06, 2018, 05:57:26 PM »

Dems always had a better chance in TN as opposed to TX
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #85 on: September 06, 2018, 06:03:29 PM »

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...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.


A place like Hamilton County may be in the single digits for Braun.

Yeah, I think there is a decent chance that Braun in the suburbs turns out to be what we thought vs what happened for Gillespie in NOVA in 2017, myself included as well.

Maybe Pence could help out though, I guess we will see.

Pence could've lost Hamilton County if he ran for Governor in 2016. He wasn't going to win the state at all. This myth that Pence was a popular figure in Indiana who can save the INGOP needs to go away, especially in the suburbs, where he was most unpopular in comparison to a generic Indiana Republican (ala Eric Holcomb or Mitch Daniels)
Yep. I was a poll worker in Hamilton County for the 2016 primaries —there were a record number of blank votes in the Republican gubernatorial race then, when Pence was running unopposed; it was fairly obvious his interest in the vice presidency was motivated by the knowledge that he was not getting a second term as governor. I think the predictions that Donnelly will carry Hamilton County are overly optimistic at this stage, but if these numbers hold, he's certain to improve on Clinton's margin and may well carry Democrats to victory in some of the local races (including Senate District 29, where far-right fundamentalist Mike Delph is facing his 2014 opponent, who gave him the closest race of his career against the backdrop of a GOP landslide in the rest of the state).
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #86 on: September 06, 2018, 07:37:42 PM »

People are really underestimating Democrats chance at flipping the senate.

It would be such a pleasant surprise if they do.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #87 on: September 06, 2018, 11:46:23 PM »



The question is, is it "dropping down target lists" solely due to overreaction to this poll (like the pundits, who sometimes overreact just as much as Atlas posters) or was this the case even before this poll was released? If it was the latter, you'd think these takes would've started coming out before this poll dropped, not after.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #88 on: November 11, 2018, 01:54:19 PM »

People are really underestimating Democrats chance at flipping the senate.

The only tossups this year are TN, TX, and ND

The rest....at least under this environment...are a foregone conclusion.

lmao at this

lmao at all the other "Donnelly will win" predictors in this thread
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #89 on: November 11, 2018, 02:31:29 PM »

NBC/Marist confirmed trash, worse than TRAFALGAR.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #90 on: November 18, 2018, 12:42:28 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2018, 12:46:21 PM by McCaskill 2020 »

This is NBC/Marist, so I’m going to guess Donnelly +8.

Have any of their polls been particularly unbelievable aside from that one in Wisconsin? Recently they had a tie in MO, Pritzker up double digits in IL, Casey/Wolf up double digits in PA, and Cruz up 4/Abbott up double digits in TX, which is basically the same as the consensus in all those races.

See, this is what I meant, but apparently it was "hackish" to be skeptical of their IN/MO/WI/OH/etc. numbers.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #91 on: November 18, 2018, 12:48:34 PM »

Hotline Josh was right.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #92 on: November 20, 2018, 07:11:08 PM »

I am reminded of 2016 where Holcomb did not lead in a single poll post-Labor Day, yet still won by 6%. Hopefully INGOP will have similar success in 2018.
Since we live in hell world that will probably happen
Not bad.
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