IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 27, 2022, 09:11:43 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4
Author Topic: IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6  (Read 10736 times)
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,990
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: September 05, 2018, 05:44:33 PM »

This is NBC/Marist, so Iím going to guess Donnelly +8.

Almost.

So much for Donnelly being much more vulnerable than McCaskill, though.

Both Donnelly and McCaskill have been under estimated before. At the end I think both finish fairly closely.

And IceSpear yes I do believe Donnelly could win over 60% in Hamilton County.

But several posters told me that Perfect Fit For The Suburbsô Hillary Clinton already hit the Democratic ceiling in the suburbs, and that Trump (or ESPECIALLY a "normal" Republican) would do far better there even though basically every Republican candidate since 2016 has done worse than him in the suburbs, and sometimes significantly worse!
Democrats have been over performing far more in rural areas than in suburbs.

Not really.

KS-04: Thompson kept it relatively close because he cleaned up in Wichita and the suburbs, even winning Sedgwick County. He got crushed in the rural areas.
MT-AL: Quist mostly ran up the score in what passes for urban/suburban areas in Montana like Missoula, Bozeman (Gallatin County), Helena (Lewis and Clark County), and Butte (Silver Bow County.) He still got curbstomped in the rural areas.
VA-Gov: Northam did even better than Clinton in NoVa which hardly anyone expected, while also making massive improvements in the Virginia Beach and Richmond suburbs. He did far worse than even McAuliffe in the rural areas.
AL-Sen: Moore actually did better in the rural areas than he did in 2012. He lost because he got burbstomped in the Birmingham/Mobile/Huntsville cities and their suburbs, along with the Black Belt. Look at the swing in Jefferson, Shelby, and Madison Counties.
PA-18: Lamb won because of the Pittsburbstomping in Allegheny County, he was still soundly rejected in Washington/Greene/Westmoreland Counties.
AZ-08: Dems got a massive swing in a heavily Republican district that consists entirely of Phoenix suburbs.
OH-12: Same story as PA-18 basically, with a slightly different ending. O'Connor dominated in suburban Columbus (Franklin County) and put in an amazing performance for a Democrat in suburban Delaware County. It wasn't quite enough to make up for the thumping he got in the rural areas of the district.

Really the only counter example and the reason the whole "suburbs are fools gold" narrative got started is because of GA-06, which is a pretty obvious outlier at this point.
Yep, Dems are DOA in rural areas at this point.  Does not bode well for the Senate.
Democrats won special elections in rural districts Trump won by 30 points, lol.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,850
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: September 05, 2018, 06:47:37 PM »

New Poll: Indiana Senator by Marist College on 2018-08-29

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,400
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: September 05, 2018, 07:48:57 PM »

I'm trying to imagine a world where a Democrat gets re-elected in Indiana, yet another Democrat loses in Florida.
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,514
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: September 05, 2018, 09:26:18 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 69,884
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: September 05, 2018, 09:28:52 PM »

Donnelly isn't gonna lose
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,151


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: September 05, 2018, 10:05:07 PM »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned AZ.  I don't recall seeing any post-primary polls there.
Logged
👁️👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,636


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: September 05, 2018, 10:42:24 PM »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned AZ.  I don't recall seeing any post-primary polls there.

Because we already know that Prada Socialist Queen Sinema will be up by a bit.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,778
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: September 05, 2018, 10:43:42 PM »

If itís not North Dakota, I hope itís either Tennessee or Mississippi.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: September 05, 2018, 11:11:54 PM »

Toss-Up
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,693
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: September 05, 2018, 11:16:28 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.


A place like Hamilton County may be in the single digits for Braun.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,387
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: September 05, 2018, 11:31:09 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
...wow.  If you're a Braun supporter, these numbers are bad.  Like...really bad.

If you compare those numbers to 2016...

Trump won rural voters 65%-30%, compared to this poll, which shows Braun winning that group by a mere 52-38%.

Trump won non-college whites 69%-26%, compared to Braun's 47%-42%.

Trump won white evangelicals 75%-22%, compared to 61%-32% for Braun.

Trump won the Indy suburbs 63-31%, compared to Braun's 54-40%.

Of course, we still have two months, which is like two years in politics.  Anything can happen.  However, these are horrifying numbers for a Republican in Indiana to start off with going into the post-Labor Day marathon (it's no longer a sprint)!  

If Election Day was tomorrow, I'd bank all of my assets on a Donnelly victory.


A place like Hamilton County may be in the single digits for Braun.

Yeah, I think there is a decent chance that Braun in the suburbs turns out to be what we thought vs what happened for Gillespie in NOVA in 2017, myself included as well.

I am changing this race rating in my opinion from Tilt R---> Tilt D. Those two polls showing Braun ahead by 1-2 points was just a primary bump after a thriller primary while Donnelly was hibernating during that time. Then we got the Banks internal that showed Donnelly only down by 8 points (losing 50-42) in Indiana 3rd, then that trafalgar thing which was obviously junk, but I still kept it on the back burner of my mind for some reason. Then this poll came out, and that was the third strike and it was enough for me to reconsider. The thing that looked pretty bad for Braun too is Trump is not beloved in Indiana, so he can't even really attempt too strong of a bailout for Braun like he can for even people like Morrisey and Cramer. Maybe Pence could help out though, I guess we will see. But I can tell you that I have seen enough to move this race into Donnelly's column for at least now.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 37,147
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: September 05, 2018, 11:34:32 PM »

People are really underestimating Democrats chance at flipping the senate.
Logged
Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
MohamedChalid
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,027
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: September 06, 2018, 01:26:34 AM »

Donnelly is more safe than Nelson at this point. I'd rate this race as tilt D for the moment.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,429
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: September 06, 2018, 02:29:19 AM »

Beautiful poll! The fundamentals, Donnelly's incumbency advantage, and the polling makes this race at least Tilt D.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,567
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: September 06, 2018, 10:15:14 AM »

Logged
Josh Shapiro for Governor
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,763
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: September 06, 2018, 10:27:05 AM »

Whereís that Marist poll we were promised well over an hour ago?
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,232
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: September 06, 2018, 10:29:08 AM »



Yeah ND is quickly becoming my main concern, if for no reason other than that itís a data black hole
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,066
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: September 06, 2018, 10:30:08 AM »



Yeah ND is quickly becoming my main concern, if for no reason other than that itís a data black hole
I agree, it does seem that ND is the only seat that is truly R favoured, or a complete tossup. All of our other seats are D favoured at the moment.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,927
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: September 06, 2018, 10:33:46 AM »



Wow, I agree with "several top R strategists" for once, although Iím not sure about that "by far" part. ND, MO, FL are the pure Tossups, with IN Tilt/Lean D right now. WV and MT are Lean D.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,380
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: September 06, 2018, 10:34:37 AM »

I am reminded of 2016 where Holcomb did not lead in a single poll post-Labor Day, yet still won by 6%. Hopefully INGOP will have similar success in 2018.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,066
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: September 06, 2018, 10:34:47 AM »



Yeah ND is quickly becoming my main concern, if for no reason other than that itís a data black hole

I was called a concern troll once upon a time for saying ND was the most likely Republican gain
Atlas will call you a hack/troll no matter what you argue
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,567
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: September 06, 2018, 10:37:54 AM »

I am reminded of 2016 where Holcomb did not lead in a single poll post-Labor Day, yet still won by 6%. Hopefully INGOP will have similar success in 2018.

Certainly didn't hurt him that Trump won IN by 19.
Logged
ltomlinson31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 450
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: September 06, 2018, 10:42:56 AM »



Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,927
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: September 06, 2018, 10:44:39 AM »





Iíve never understood why people were so convinced that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill.
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,776


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: September 06, 2018, 10:46:55 AM »





Iíve never understood why people were so convinced that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill.

I never understand why people had both Donnelly and McCaskill going down by larger margins than Blanche Lincoln did.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 13 queries.