IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 27, 2022, 10:59:44 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4
Author Topic: IN SEN (NBC/Marist): Donnelly+6  (Read 10737 times)
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,856
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 05, 2018, 04:24:46 PM »

Cheesy
Logged
new_patomic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 943


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2018, 04:25:10 PM »

In the generic ballot question Republicans are at 48% and Democrats at 44%

Does that lend itself to making a seat like IN-02 or IN-09 competitive?
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,232
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 05, 2018, 04:27:37 PM »

Wow!

I guess Bismarck was right. He does live in Indiana after all...
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,066
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 05, 2018, 04:32:42 PM »

People are really underestimating Democrats chance at flipping the senate.

The only tossups this year are TN, TX, and ND

The rest....at least under this environment...are a foregone conclusion.
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,415
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: September 05, 2018, 04:34:16 PM »

I'm gonna devil's advocate and say that this doesn't mean much until Braun gets higher name rec, not mentioning IN polls tend to favor Republicans.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,850
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: September 05, 2018, 04:35:39 PM »

This is NBC/Marist, so Iím going to guess Donnelly +8.

Almost.

So much for Donnelly being much more vulnerable than McCaskill, though.

Both Donnelly and McCaskill have been under estimated before. At the end I think both finish fairly closely.

And IceSpear yes I do believe Donnelly could win over 60% in Hamilton County.

But several posters told me that Perfect Fit For The Suburbsô Hillary Clinton already hit the Democratic ceiling in the suburbs, and that Trump (or ESPECIALLY a "normal" Republican) would do far better there even though basically every Republican candidate since 2016 has done worse than him in the suburbs, and sometimes significantly worse!
Democrats have been over performing far more in rural areas than in suburbs.

Not really.

KS-04: Thompson kept it relatively close because he cleaned up in Wichita and the suburbs, even winning Sedgwick County. He got crushed in the rural areas.
MT-AL: Quist mostly ran up the score in what passes for urban/suburban areas in Montana like Missoula, Bozeman (Gallatin County), Helena (Lewis and Clark County), and Butte (Silver Bow County.) He still got curbstomped in the rural areas.
VA-Gov: Northam did even better than Clinton in NoVa which hardly anyone expected, while also making massive improvements in the Virginia Beach and Richmond suburbs. He did far worse than even McAuliffe in the rural areas.
AL-Sen: Moore actually did better in the rural areas than he did in 2012. He lost because he got burbstomped in the Birmingham/Mobile/Huntsville cities and their suburbs, along with the Black Belt. Look at the swing in Jefferson, Shelby, and Madison Counties.
PA-18: Lamb won because of the Pittsburbstomping in Allegheny County, he was still soundly rejected in Washington/Greene/Westmoreland Counties.
AZ-08: Dems got a massive swing in a heavily Republican district that consists entirely of Phoenix suburbs.
OH-12: Same story as PA-18 basically, with a slightly different ending. O'Connor dominated in suburban Columbus (Franklin County) and put in an amazing performance for a Democrat in suburban Delaware County. It wasn't quite enough to make up for the thumping he got in the rural areas of the district.

Really the only counter example and the reason the whole "suburbs are fools gold" narrative got started is because of GA-06, which is a pretty obvious outlier at this point.
Logged
Mehmet Oz is a charlatan psychopath
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,087
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2018, 04:36:23 PM »

I've always been confused as to why people thought Donnelly was DOA, he's not at all a bad fit for the state.
Logged
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,856
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2018, 04:37:19 PM »

I'm gonna devil's advocate and say that this doesn't mean much until Braun gets higher name rec, not mentioning IN polls tend to favor Republicans.
But isnít getting a little late for Braun to still be this unknown? Trump already has done like 2 rallies with the guy. This shows heís doing something wrong campaign wise at least
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,567
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2018, 04:42:38 PM »

So Trafalgar wasn't that far off and Donelly really was ahead, huh?
Logged
Xing (reluctantly no longer on strike)
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,550
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2018, 04:43:29 PM »

So much for Donnelly being much more vulnerable than McCaskill, though.

I mean, Marist is a pretty good pollster, but I'd like to see more than one poll before concluding that with certainty, though.

Still a Toss-Up for now, but it does seem like Donnelly may have been underestimated (or maybe Braun was overestimated?)
Logged
Overturn Dobbs
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,879


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2018, 04:49:02 PM »

This is certainly good news for Donnelly, but at this point in the '16 Senate race, there were polls showing Evan Bayh up anywhere from 4 to 9. He ended up losing by 10.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,429
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: September 05, 2018, 04:49:41 PM »

This is certainly good news for Donnelly, but at this point in the '16 Senate race, there were polls showing Evan Bayh up anywhere from 4 to 9. He ended up losing by 10.

Moot point. The fundamentals are fundamentally different this year.
Logged
081088
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,982
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: September 05, 2018, 04:49:56 PM »

Mystery poll tommorrow....maybe ND?

Logged
JG
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,147


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2018, 04:52:04 PM »

Mystery poll tommorrow....maybe ND?



I'm hoping for Missouri or North Dakota. Please, not another FL poll showing a tie.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,850
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2018, 04:52:50 PM »

Mystery poll tommorrow....maybe ND?



I'm hoping for Missouri or North Dakota. Please, not another FL poll showing a tie.

They just released a Missouri poll yesterday showing a tie, lol.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,109
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2018, 04:53:08 PM »

Mystery poll tommorrow....maybe ND?



I'm hoping for Missouri or North Dakota. Please, not another FL poll showing a tie.

Marist already did FL not too long ago, so I don't think that's it.
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,540
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: September 05, 2018, 04:55:11 PM »

The Trafalgar poll was suspicious, but this really does make a decent Donnelly advantage seem way more likely. At this juncture, the only particularly vulnerable seats the Dems have are ND, where Heitkamp has been consistently trailing by a slim margin, and MO, where it looks like Hawley's gotten up to speed and it's pretty much a tie.
Logged
JG
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,147


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: September 05, 2018, 05:01:17 PM »

Mystery poll tommorrow....maybe ND?



I'm hoping for Missouri or North Dakota. Please, not another FL poll showing a tie.

They just released a Missouri poll yesterday showing a tie, lol.

Oops. Didn't realize it was Marist.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,429
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: September 05, 2018, 05:03:32 PM »

Mystery poll tommorrow....maybe ND?



I'm hoping for Missouri or North Dakota. Please, not another FL poll showing a tie.

I'm definitely hoping for ND. Feeling Better about McCaskill atm than I am about Heitkamp.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,387
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: September 05, 2018, 05:10:01 PM »

LETíS GO!!
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,399
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: September 05, 2018, 05:11:43 PM »

Logged
Devout Centrist
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,326
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: September 05, 2018, 05:13:07 PM »

So, uh, Hollingsworth is in deep trouble, right?
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,540
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: September 05, 2018, 05:15:40 PM »

So, uh, Hollingsworth is in deep trouble, right?

I wouldn't say deep trouble, but he and Walorski are in for some serious races.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,044
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: September 05, 2018, 05:20:58 PM »

Certainly a good poll for Donnelly. The question is, has he hit his ceiling? How much higher can Braun go?
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,031


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: September 05, 2018, 05:23:30 PM »

This is NBC/Marist, so Iím going to guess Donnelly +8.

Almost.

So much for Donnelly being much more vulnerable than McCaskill, though.

Both Donnelly and McCaskill have been under estimated before. At the end I think both finish fairly closely.

And IceSpear yes I do believe Donnelly could win over 60% in Hamilton County.

But several posters told me that Perfect Fit For The Suburbsô Hillary Clinton already hit the Democratic ceiling in the suburbs, and that Trump (or ESPECIALLY a "normal" Republican) would do far better there even though basically every Republican candidate since 2016 has done worse than him in the suburbs, and sometimes significantly worse!
Democrats have been over performing far more in rural areas than in suburbs.

Not really.

KS-04: Thompson kept it relatively close because he cleaned up in Wichita and the suburbs, even winning Sedgwick County. He got crushed in the rural areas.
MT-AL: Quist mostly ran up the score in what passes for urban/suburban areas in Montana like Missoula, Bozeman (Gallatin County), Helena (Lewis and Clark County), and Butte (Silver Bow County.) He still got curbstomped in the rural areas.
VA-Gov: Northam did even better than Clinton in NoVa which hardly anyone expected, while also making massive improvements in the Virginia Beach and Richmond suburbs. He did far worse than even McAuliffe in the rural areas.
AL-Sen: Moore actually did better in the rural areas than he did in 2012. He lost because he got burbstomped in the Birmingham/Mobile/Huntsville cities and their suburbs, along with the Black Belt. Look at the swing in Jefferson, Shelby, and Madison Counties.
PA-18: Lamb won because of the Pittsburbstomping in Allegheny County, he was still soundly rejected in Washington/Greene/Westmoreland Counties.
AZ-08: Dems got a massive swing in a heavily Republican district that consists entirely of Phoenix suburbs.
OH-12: Same story as PA-18 basically, with a slightly different ending. O'Connor dominated in suburban Columbus (Franklin County) and put in an amazing performance for a Democrat in suburban Delaware County. It wasn't quite enough to make up for the thumping he got in the rural areas of the district.

Really the only counter example and the reason the whole "suburbs are fools gold" narrative got started is because of GA-06, which is a pretty obvious outlier at this point.
Yep, Dems are DOA in rural areas at this point.  Does not bode well for the Senate.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 13 queries.