Suffolk: FL/OH bellwether county polls: Scott +1 in Volusia; Brown +15 in Clark

[RI]

https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/11_5_2018_volusia_county_marginals.pdf

https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/11_5_2018_clark_county_marginals.pdf

[IceSpear]

How exactly is a county that McCain and Romney won a "bellwether?"

[ElectionsGuy]

If Scott's only winning Volusia by one he's in deep trouble.

[psychprofessor]

If Scott's only winning Volusia by one he's in deep trouble.

A county Trump won by 13 and Scott is only "up" 1...yikes

[Person Man]

Its probably not good for DeSantis's seat. That type of score really puts it in danger.

[Badger]

I'm not sure I would consider Clark County a Bellwether anymore. One could argue that in 2000 or 2004, but since then it's drifted heavily Republican. I would say Stark or Lake County are better bellwethers for this state.

[Person Man]

I'm not sure I would consider Clark County a Bellwether anymore. One could argue that in 2000 or 2004, but since then it's drifted heavily Republican. I would say Stark or Lake County are better bellwethers for this state.

I Brown is up that much there then Connor should at least keep it very close and could win.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Why did Suffolk poll just my county? I feel special lol

[Mr. Smith]

Those aren't bellwethers.

What are Hillsborough and Pinellas at?

[RI]

If Scott's only winning Volusia by one he's in deep trouble.

A county Trump won by 13 and Scott is only "up" 1...yikes

Scott won it by 4 in 2014 while winning statewide by 1, so it's not an outlandish choice.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What's the point? Bellwethers can come and go. San Benito used to be California's bellwether, but it's too Republican now. Now Santa Barbara is a better bellwether, it used to be too Republican.

[Aurelio21]

This spells doom for both Rs. Volusia County
A) Modell 2014: It validates that the race is D+2 and thus confirms the poll average
B) Modell 2016: This is even much worse and would spell doom for the GOP legislature (At least FL Sen flipping). Trump's victory was propelled by this type of counties: The Obama Coalition collapsed there. Andrew Gillum fixed it.

Based on this, this (barring any flukes) suggests an 1-2 % margin of victory for Nelson and Gillum 2-3 %

Clark County:
Basically, it shows the same pattern: The "Trump Coalition" of WWC Democrats is in dire shape. There is no "Red Wave" the Trumpistas are talking about in their echo chambers.
Brown leading shows that the populist part of the democratic coalition can be won back. Yet their concerns must be taken seriously, e g with a sensible Bill-Clinton-Immigration law.

[RFayette]

If Scott's only winning Volusia by one he's in deep trouble.

A county Trump won by 13 and Scott is only "up" 1...yikes

Scott won it by 4 in 2014 while winning statewide by 1, so it's not an outlandish choice.

Yeah, Scott has more Latino support than Trump, so he can definitely win with a smaller margin in Volusia by not getting shellacked as much in Miami-Dade.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Scott's only winning Volusia by one he's in deep trouble.

A county Trump won by 13 and Scott is only "up" 1...yikes

Scott won it by 4 in 2014 while winning statewide by 1, so it's not an outlandish choice.

Yeah, Scott has more Latino support than Trump, so he can definitely win with a smaller margin in Volusia by not getting shellacked as much in Miami-Dade.

It should also be noted that Nelson has historical strength in this area as well. His old congressional district was based around neighboring Brevard County.

In 2000, when it went to Gore by about 8%, Nelson won it by 13%, while winning statewide by only 5% 
In 2006. Nelson got 60% statewide and 63% in Volusia
In 2012, Nelson performed about a point better in Volusia than statewide.

[Use Your Illusion]

Those aren't bellwethers.

What are Hillsborough and Pinellas at?

Not sure but given historic trends they will be carried by Nelson. They are both reliably Democratic and Pasco County immediately north has a habit of flip floppong but unless Scott really runs up the score there he's looking at better than a 100,000 vote deficit from the Bay Area. God help him already because Gillum unexpectedly won every county with a massive population center.

My prediction is that Duval will be the back breaker for the Scott/DeSantis ticket if Gillum gets them out to vote.

[Person Man]

Those aren't bellwethers.

What are Hillsborough and Pinellas at?

Not sure but given historic trends they will be carried by Nelson. They are both reliably Democratic and Pasco County immediately north has a habit of flip floppong but unless Scott really runs up the score there he's looking at better than a 100,000 vote deficit from the Bay Area. God help him already because Gillum unexpectedly won every county with a massive population center.

My prediction is that Duval will be the back breaker for the Scott/DeSantis ticket if Gillum gets them out to vote.

I am in Duval right now. I feel special.

[Use Your Illusion]

Scott can't afford small margins on the Space Coast. Nelson will get his margins from I-4 corridor, Miami-Dade and Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg and possibly Duval. Unless every single Republican from rural areas like Okeechobee, counties towards the center of the state like Polk, Lake, Sumter and all along the west coast of the panhandle gets out to vote this is going to be an uncomfortable situation for him.

All hinges on whether or not the younger people are staying home

[Use Your Illusion]

Those aren't bellwethers.

What are Hillsborough and Pinellas at?

Not sure but given historic trends they will be carried by Nelson. They are both reliably Democratic and Pasco County immediately north has a habit of flip floppong but unless Scott really runs up the score there he's looking at better than a 100,000 vote deficit from the Bay Area. God help him already because Gillum unexpectedly won every county with a massive population center.

My prediction is that Duval will be the back breaker for the Scott/DeSantis ticket if Gillum gets them out to vote.

I am in Duval right now. I feel special.

You should. FL is like TX in that you can have so many major cities that vote Democrat all they want but the rest of the state will keep it Republican. Duval/Jacksonville is just about the only major population center in the state that Republicans can count on to balance everything out. We're talking 200,000 votes at a time here during presidential elections and 240,000 for Marco Rubio.

Scott needs to perform well there. I believe he will but God help him with a razor thin margin because he's facing a man who has won 200,000 votes there before too.

[Badger]

Those aren't bellwethers.

What are Hillsborough and Pinellas at?

Not sure but given historic trends they will be carried by Nelson. They are both reliably Democratic and Pasco County immediately north has a habit of flip floppong but unless Scott really runs up the score there he's looking at better than a 100,000 vote deficit from the Bay Area. God help him already because Gillum unexpectedly won every county with a massive population center.

My prediction is that Duval will be the back breaker for the Scott/DeSantis ticket if Gillum gets them out to vote.

I am in Duval right now. I feel special.

You should. FL is like TX in that you can have so many major cities that vote Democrat all they want but the rest of the state will keep it Republican.

Outside the border counties.

[RI]

Scott ended up winning Volusia by 10 points. Brown lost Clark by 2 points. This is why you don't poll single counties, ladies and gents.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Scott ended up winning Volusia by 10 points. Brown lost Clark by 2 points. This is why you don't poll single counties, ladies and gents.

I would point out that the poll conducted of bellweather counties in 2016 was very helpful in gauging the level of support Trump had in the rust belt that state level polls missed. It showed he had massive leads in Luzerne, PA and Sandusky Ohio and those proved to be accurate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Scott ended up winning Volusia by 10 points. Brown lost Clark by 2 points. This is why you don't poll single counties, ladies and gents.

I would point out that the poll conducted of bellweather counties in 2016 was very helpful in gauging the level of support Trump had in the rust belt that state level polls missed. It showed he had massive leads in Luzerne, PA and Sandusky Ohio and those proved to be accurate.

Regions would be better than single counties. Unless you're talking about some massive county like LA or Clark or something.