FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 49, Scott 49

[Zaybay]

Whoa, thats really close. And the sample was notablely GOP heavy, but I wont draw conclusions from that. Basically, Scott has failed in his one objective, get Nelson below him before Nelson ramps up the ads.

[Zaybay]

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

BUT 20 IS RIDICULOUS!! Come on man!

Well, this pollster did give DeSantis a large majority of Hispanics as well. Perhaps the sample is Cuban heavy.

[Zaybay]

Bagel and Shadow, it might just be the sample. Their poll of Gillum has similar results, with DeSantis winning a large amount of Hispanics, while the White vote is unusually close. Dont take one poll as gospel, use the average.

[Zaybay]

As with their senate gubernatorial poll, I think this poll oversamples the GOP by a little.

^ this

[Zaybay]

I can confidently predict that, without a doubt, Nelson will retain his senate seat. Moving this seat to lean D.

[Zaybay]

Only two reactions to that post? Thought I would get more. Anyway, the race is definitely tilt D/lean D for two reasons.

1. The structure of waves: Undecideds always go to the oppo party

2. Scott and Nelson's strategy: Scott relies on high spending and ads, while Nelson relies on blitzing at the end, and GOTV.

Scott's victory would require him leading at this point, for him to be leading Nelson before Nelson starts the blitz. The fact that hes still tied shows that he has failed his one objective, and its unlikely that he can retain a tie with the Nelsonkrieg occurring.

By calling it a pure tossup, you are only looking at if the election occurred today. It wont be a pure tossup in NOV at this rate.

TBH, its just as hackish to claim a race will never change and what happens in July will happen in Nov. as to claim that Nelson will win by 20+

[Zaybay]

And Nelson hasn't even started his ad blitz yet? Tilt D.

yep, Nelson has the advantage. Scott cant get him past a tie or perhaps a little in favour of him, and Nelson is starting to spend. He released his first ad a week ago, and hes got 40$ million more to throw.

[Zaybay]

I again change my opinion. It's pure Tossup

what makes you say that?

[Zaybay]

2. Scott and Nelson's strategy: Scott relies on high spending and ads, while Nelson relies on blitzing at the end, and GOTV.

1. Um, when did the FL GOP abandon its GOTV efforts?
2. You’re acting as if Nelson will have the airwaves all to himself, but it’s not as if Scott has canceled his ads.
3. It’s also somewhat paradoxical when people say that Scott's money doesn’t matter because it’s a wave year and FL doesn’t have that many swing voters anyway, but at the same time predict that his numbers will collapse Evan Bayh style once Nelson starts his advertising "blitzkrieg".

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

2. Again, of course, I did not say that Nelson would suddenly gain the airwaves to himself. But it will disrupt his control. Currently, 100% of the airwaves are Scott ads. If that changes, to, lets say, 65% Scott ads, then Nelson would be able to get his name out there. Its the same problem many Dems running against the moderate governors are facing, but Nelson can break it.

3. Well, its rather simple. As I refer in another post, most FL voters are in partisan bubbles, but there are two chinks in the armour. The FLDEMs have the Latino vote, which is able to defect to the right R(Rubio, the FL house Rs), while the FLGOP has the panhandle white vote, which Nelson has exposed multiple times. So, considering that Scott isnt able to really break the DEM armour, its possible that Nelson may be able to use the wave the break the GOPs. I personally dont think so, but thats probably what can lead posters to say such an idea.

I think the race is tilt/lean D, but also that Nelson will win by around 2-3%, not a blowout, for the reasons I have stated previously.

[Zaybay]

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

Source?

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This isn’t really true, though:

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695

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Depends on what you mean by "break"? He’s doing (significantly, depending on what poll you are inclined to believe more) better among Hispanic voters than Trump did in 2016.

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Yeah, that result wouldn’t be surprising at all, I just find your reasoning a little bizarre.

1. My proof is Nelson's victories in 2006 and 2012, where Nelson relied on GOTV, getting some of the best results in the state. TBH, the FLGOP is a bit overhyped in this category.

2. I seem to have gotten the numbers wrong, the actual expenditures are

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According to the last FEC report.

But for airtime, I am mostly correct. According to current reports:

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So, currently, the airwaves are 30% Nelson, and 70% Scott. Most of Nelson's ads are by outside groups. If/When Nelson starts putting money behind the operation, we could actually see more Nelson ads on air than Scott ads.

3. That is true, Scott is trying to break the D coalition, but, if he were, we should see a better result for him. And while Q showed him doing great with Hispanics, it is just one poll, and the overall majority shows him flopping with him. Its clear that is his strategy, it seems that even DeSantis is going to attempt it, but, with the money coming in for Nelson, its hard to see Scott improving. This should have been his glorious moment, and in the end, he can only tie.

Anyway, I think it will be close, but I dont rate it a tossup. Even with a low margin, I just think thats the state's inelastic tendencies not to go out of the 5% zone, unless you break the armour, and I dont see either candidate doing that. Nelson does have a clear advantage, though.

[Zaybay]

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

Source?

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This isn’t really true, though:

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695

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Depends on what you mean by "break"? He’s doing (significantly, depending on what poll you are inclined to believe more) better among Hispanic voters than Trump did in 2016.

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Yeah, that result wouldn’t be surprising at all, I just find your reasoning a little bizarre.

1. My proof is Nelson's victories in 2006 and 2012, where Nelson relied on GOTV, getting some of the best results in the state. TBH, the FLGOP is a bit overhyped in this category.

2. I seem to have gotten the numbers wrong, the actual expenditures are

You must be logged in to read this quote.

According to the last FEC report.

But for airtime, I am mostly correct. According to current reports:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, currently, the airwaves are 30% Nelson, and 70% Scott. Most of Nelson's ads are by outside groups. If/When Nelson starts putting money behind the operation, we could actually see more Nelson ads on air than Scott ads.

3. That is true, Scott is trying to break the D coalition, but, if he were, we should see a better result for him. And while Q showed him doing great with Hispanics, it is just one poll, and the overall majority shows him flopping with him. Its clear that is his strategy, it seems that even DeSantis is going to attempt it, but, with the money coming in for Nelson, its hard to see Scott improving. This should have been his glorious moment, and in the end, he can only tie.

Anyway, I think it will be close, but I dont rate it a tossup. Even with a low margin, I just think thats the state's inelastic tendencies not to go out of the 5% zone, unless you break the armour, and I dont see either candidate doing that. Nelson does have a clear advantage, though.

(((Damage Control)))

All I did was clarify FEC numbers. Im still sticking to a lean D rating for the exact same reasoning.