FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 49, Scott 49

[MT Treasurer]

Three ties in a row? Yup, pure Florida Tossup.

[MT Treasurer]

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

Yeah, if we’re trying to find fault with the crosstabs, Scott "only" winning Whites by 11 seems off as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Nelson Always does well with white voters that's part of his coalition he's not going to win them this time but the fact that he's keeping it close means that he's still at least holding onto a big part of his coalition.

Most other polls have shown him winning them by more. Anyway, all I’m saying is that we shouldn’t "unskew" these polls or obsess over the crosstabs, since the overall result (a tie) is completely believable and in line with previous polls.

[MT Treasurer]

2. Scott and Nelson's strategy: Scott relies on high spending and ads, while Nelson relies on blitzing at the end, and GOTV.

1. Um, when did the FL GOP abandon its GOTV efforts?
2. You’re acting as if Nelson will have the airwaves all to himself, but it’s not as if Scott has canceled his ads.
3. It’s also somewhat paradoxical when people say that Scott's money doesn’t matter because it’s a wave year and FL doesn’t have that many swing voters anyway, but at the same time predict that his numbers will collapse Evan Bayh style once Nelson starts his advertising "blitzkrieg".

[MT Treasurer]

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

Source?

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This isn’t really true, though:

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695

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Depends on what you mean by "break"? He’s doing (significantly, depending on what poll you are inclined to believe more) better among Hispanic voters than Trump did in 2016.

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Yeah, that result wouldn’t be surprising at all, I just find your reasoning a little bizarre.