FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 49, Scott 49

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nelson will win. My 4 month old poodle is a better candidate then Rick Scott.

The second part is not true at all. This race would not even be remotely competitive if Scott did not run.

[IceSpear]

Nelson will win. My 4 month old poodle is a better candidate then Rick Scott.

The second part is not true at all. This race would not even be remotely competitive if Scott did not run.

A better revision would be a "My 4 month old poodle would be a better candidate than Rick Scott if Rick Scott wasn't rich."

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nelson will win. My 4 month old poodle is a better candidate then Rick Scott.

The second part is not true at all. This race would not even be remotely competitive if Scott did not run.

A better revision would be a "My 4 month old poodle would be a better candidate than Rick Scott if Rick Scott wasn't rich."

Lol, now that’s better.

[Zaybay]

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

Source?

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This isn’t really true, though:

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695

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Depends on what you mean by "break"? He’s doing (significantly, depending on what poll you are inclined to believe more) better among Hispanic voters than Trump did in 2016.

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Yeah, that result wouldn’t be surprising at all, I just find your reasoning a little bizarre.

1. My proof is Nelson's victories in 2006 and 2012, where Nelson relied on GOTV, getting some of the best results in the state. TBH, the FLGOP is a bit overhyped in this category.

2. I seem to have gotten the numbers wrong, the actual expenditures are

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According to the last FEC report.

But for airtime, I am mostly correct. According to current reports:

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So, currently, the airwaves are 30% Nelson, and 70% Scott. Most of Nelson's ads are by outside groups. If/When Nelson starts putting money behind the operation, we could actually see more Nelson ads on air than Scott ads.

3. That is true, Scott is trying to break the D coalition, but, if he were, we should see a better result for him. And while Q showed him doing great with Hispanics, it is just one poll, and the overall majority shows him flopping with him. Its clear that is his strategy, it seems that even DeSantis is going to attempt it, but, with the money coming in for Nelson, its hard to see Scott improving. This should have been his glorious moment, and in the end, he can only tie.

Anyway, I think it will be close, but I dont rate it a tossup. Even with a low margin, I just think thats the state's inelastic tendencies not to go out of the 5% zone, unless you break the armour, and I dont see either candidate doing that. Nelson does have a clear advantage, though.

[Ye We Can]

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

Source?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This isn’t really true, though:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Depends on what you mean by "break"? He’s doing (significantly, depending on what poll you are inclined to believe more) better among Hispanic voters than Trump did in 2016.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, that result wouldn’t be surprising at all, I just find your reasoning a little bizarre.

1. My proof is Nelson's victories in 2006 and 2012, where Nelson relied on GOTV, getting some of the best results in the state. TBH, the FLGOP is a bit overhyped in this category.

2. I seem to have gotten the numbers wrong, the actual expenditures are

You must be logged in to read this quote.

According to the last FEC report.

But for airtime, I am mostly correct. According to current reports:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, currently, the airwaves are 30% Nelson, and 70% Scott. Most of Nelson's ads are by outside groups. If/When Nelson starts putting money behind the operation, we could actually see more Nelson ads on air than Scott ads.

3. That is true, Scott is trying to break the D coalition, but, if he were, we should see a better result for him. And while Q showed him doing great with Hispanics, it is just one poll, and the overall majority shows him flopping with him. Its clear that is his strategy, it seems that even DeSantis is going to attempt it, but, with the money coming in for Nelson, its hard to see Scott improving. This should have been his glorious moment, and in the end, he can only tie.

Anyway, I think it will be close, but I dont rate it a tossup. Even with a low margin, I just think thats the state's inelastic tendencies not to go out of the 5% zone, unless you break the armour, and I dont see either candidate doing that. Nelson does have a clear advantage, though.

(((Damage Control)))

[Zaybay]

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

Source?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This isn’t really true, though:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Depends on what you mean by "break"? He’s doing (significantly, depending on what poll you are inclined to believe more) better among Hispanic voters than Trump did in 2016.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, that result wouldn’t be surprising at all, I just find your reasoning a little bizarre.

1. My proof is Nelson's victories in 2006 and 2012, where Nelson relied on GOTV, getting some of the best results in the state. TBH, the FLGOP is a bit overhyped in this category.

2. I seem to have gotten the numbers wrong, the actual expenditures are

You must be logged in to read this quote.

According to the last FEC report.

But for airtime, I am mostly correct. According to current reports:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, currently, the airwaves are 30% Nelson, and 70% Scott. Most of Nelson's ads are by outside groups. If/When Nelson starts putting money behind the operation, we could actually see more Nelson ads on air than Scott ads.

3. That is true, Scott is trying to break the D coalition, but, if he were, we should see a better result for him. And while Q showed him doing great with Hispanics, it is just one poll, and the overall majority shows him flopping with him. Its clear that is his strategy, it seems that even DeSantis is going to attempt it, but, with the money coming in for Nelson, its hard to see Scott improving. This should have been his glorious moment, and in the end, he can only tie.

Anyway, I think it will be close, but I dont rate it a tossup. Even with a low margin, I just think thats the state's inelastic tendencies not to go out of the 5% zone, unless you break the armour, and I dont see either candidate doing that. Nelson does have a clear advantage, though.

(((Damage Control)))

All I did was clarify FEC numbers. Im still sticking to a lean D rating for the exact same reasoning.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Neil DeGrasse Tyson doesn't even have as many ties as this race does!

[Adam Griffin]

I can confidently predict that, without a doubt, Nelson will retain his senate seat. Moving this seat to lean D.

https://youtu.be/SHG0ezLiVGc?t=1m36s

[Adam Griffin]

Anyway, with regard to crosstab debate earlier, FL is pretty simple: a decent Democrat will lose whites by 20, and a decent Republican will lose Latinos by 20. In a close race, black turnout probably makes the difference.

The only way Scott wins Latino voters by 20 is if every non-Cuban Latino is violently removed from the premises prior to Election Day.

[TheSaint250]

I’ve had this race at lean D for the entirety of this cycle because I believe Nelson will win due to the national environment, but to look at this poll and think Nelson is in a better place than before simply isn’t true. Still lean D in my eyes but much, much closer to tossup than likely D.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Nelson will win. My 4 month old poodle is a better candidate then Rick Scott.

The second part is not true at all. This race would not even be remotely competitive if Scott did not run.

A better revision would be a "My 4 month old poodle would be a better candidate than Rick Scott if Rick Scott wasn't rich a good governor ."

FTFY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A tie does the GOP no good in the state like FL, unless its Jeb on the ballot. Minority turnout will be big and with a tie, the minorities will ensure a Democratic victory

[IceSpear]

A tie does the GOP no good in the state like FL, unless its Jeb on the ballot.

lol

[Xing]

Nelson will win. My 4 month old poodle is a better candidate then Rick Scott.

The second part is not true at all. This race would not even be remotely competitive if Scott did not run.

A better revision would be a "My 4 month old poodle would be a better candidate than Rick Scott if Rick Scott wasn't a good governor. a rich governor who was seen as pretty bad until he handled a hurricane well"

FTFY

Now it's fixed.

[Dukakisite1988]

My prediction is that Nelson will eek out somewhere around a 1-point win. Which will mean the lead on the night will flow back and forth like a roller coaster.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A tie does the GOP no good in the state like FL, unless its Jeb on the ballot.

lol

This is Cory Booker's best post ever.