FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 49, Scott 49

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I can confidently predict that, without a doubt, Nelson will retain his senate seat. Moving this seat to lean D.

Yeah, it's not lean D, it's still a pure toss-up. This is still Florida and Scott will be able to bring out the Republican base while Nelson with the help of Andrew Gillum will bring out the Democratic base the race here in Florida is going to be who can bring their base out and which way the undecideds will break.

[mds32]

I can confidently predict that, without a doubt, Nelson will retain his senate seat. Moving this seat to lean D.

This level of hackery is peak Atlas.

I agree.

Also to note that St. Pete's and Gravis confirmed these results earlier. But yet they are garbage. Quinnipac is an outside pollster and confirmed exactly what the state pollsters have confirmed. This race is simply too close to call at the moment.

Anyone saying Nelson is going to win at the moment is pretty much saying so with no data points on their side and nothing to back it up. 3 polls have shown nothing but a tie in the race and 2 months to go. At this point Rubio was starting to shift the race in 2016 for instance. Let's wait.

[Zaybay]

Only two reactions to that post? Thought I would get more. Anyway, the race is definitely tilt D/lean D for two reasons.

1. The structure of waves: Undecideds always go to the oppo party

2. Scott and Nelson's strategy: Scott relies on high spending and ads, while Nelson relies on blitzing at the end, and GOTV.

Scott's victory would require him leading at this point, for him to be leading Nelson before Nelson starts the blitz. The fact that hes still tied shows that he has failed his one objective, and its unlikely that he can retain a tie with the Nelsonkrieg occurring.

By calling it a pure tossup, you are only looking at if the election occurred today. It wont be a pure tossup in NOV at this rate.

TBH, its just as hackish to claim a race will never change and what happens in July will happen in Nov. as to claim that Nelson will win by 20+

[Tender Branson]

And the race is still a tossup.

Was it ever something else ?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My prediction still stands at

Nelson 49.3

Scott 49.1

[Comrade Funk]

Toss-up, but Nelson is in a better spot thanks to Gillum.

[mds32]

Toss-up, but Nelson is in a better spot thanks to Gillum.

What data point is telling you that?

[Comrade Funk]

Toss-up, but Nelson is in a better spot thanks to Gillum.

What data point is telling you that?

Nothing in general. I just think it's obvious Gillum has provided some much need enthusiasm for FL Dems

[ajc0918]

Nelson should be very pleased this race is still a toss up given the spending disadvantage.

[IceSpear]

Well, the people who were acting like it was SOOOOO hackish to still think Nelson would win because he trailed in July/August polls sure look pretty silly now. It's almost as if polls can change! Who would've thought?!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Three ties in a row? Yup, pure Florida Tossup.

It is enough to make one think that there is some herding going on, that the pollsters saw that everyone else has it tied, and so they tweak their LV screens to end up producing a tie as well.

With random variation they shouldn't all be tied!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Nelson will win. My 4 month old poodle is a better candidate then Rick Scott.

[ajc0918]

Three ties in a row? Yup, pure Florida Tossup.

It is enough to make one think that there is some herding going on, that the pollsters saw that everyone else has it tied, and so they tweak their LV screens to end up producing a tie as well.

With random variation they shouldn't all be tied!

There was a Nelson + 1 poll recently but I somewhat agree with you.

[IceSpear]

And the race is still a tossup.

Was it ever something else ?

Well, according to some of the hysterical people in these threads (among others) the race was Lean R at best for Nelson, and Sen-elect Scott should start measuring the drapes.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299389.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299473.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299682.0

[TarHeelDem]

And Nelson hasn't even started his ad blitz yet? Tilt D.

[Beet]

And Nelson hasn't even started his ad blitz yet? Tilt D.

He already put out his first ad on the 28th. Still more polls showing Scott ahead than vice versa, and nothing showing Nelson more than +1.

[Zaybay]

And Nelson hasn't even started his ad blitz yet? Tilt D.

yep, Nelson has the advantage. Scott cant get him past a tie or perhaps a little in favour of him, and Nelson is starting to spend. He released his first ad a week ago, and hes got 40$ million more to throw.

[😥]

I again change my opinion. It's pure Tossup

[Zaybay]

I again change my opinion. It's pure Tossup

what makes you say that?

[john cage bubblegum]

I mean, given the significant amount of tied polls, and the recent inclusion of high quality polling, this race is clearly a pure toss-up *right now*. 

However, I think it's reasonable to give Nelson the edge in this race, assuming no major shift in the national environment toward the Republicans.  Recent history suggests that incumbents like Nelson almost always win in wave mid-terms.  And of course, just because something's happened historically doesn't mean it can't go differently this year.  That's why I'd give Nelson the edge, as opposed to viewing him as an overwhelming favorite.

[MT Treasurer]

2. Scott and Nelson's strategy: Scott relies on high spending and ads, while Nelson relies on blitzing at the end, and GOTV.

1. Um, when did the FL GOP abandon its GOTV efforts?
2. You’re acting as if Nelson will have the airwaves all to himself, but it’s not as if Scott has canceled his ads.
3. It’s also somewhat paradoxical when people say that Scott's money doesn’t matter because it’s a wave year and FL doesn’t have that many swing voters anyway, but at the same time predict that his numbers will collapse Evan Bayh style once Nelson starts his advertising "blitzkrieg".

[Zaybay]

2. Scott and Nelson's strategy: Scott relies on high spending and ads, while Nelson relies on blitzing at the end, and GOTV.

1. Um, when did the FL GOP abandon its GOTV efforts?
2. You’re acting as if Nelson will have the airwaves all to himself, but it’s not as if Scott has canceled his ads.
3. It’s also somewhat paradoxical when people say that Scott's money doesn’t matter because it’s a wave year and FL doesn’t have that many swing voters anyway, but at the same time predict that his numbers will collapse Evan Bayh style once Nelson starts his advertising "blitzkrieg".

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

2. Again, of course, I did not say that Nelson would suddenly gain the airwaves to himself. But it will disrupt his control. Currently, 100% of the airwaves are Scott ads. If that changes, to, lets say, 65% Scott ads, then Nelson would be able to get his name out there. Its the same problem many Dems running against the moderate governors are facing, but Nelson can break it.

3. Well, its rather simple. As I refer in another post, most FL voters are in partisan bubbles, but there are two chinks in the armour. The FLDEMs have the Latino vote, which is able to defect to the right R(Rubio, the FL house Rs), while the FLGOP has the panhandle white vote, which Nelson has exposed multiple times. So, considering that Scott isnt able to really break the DEM armour, its possible that Nelson may be able to use the wave the break the GOPs. I personally dont think so, but thats probably what can lead posters to say such an idea.

I think the race is tilt/lean D, but also that Nelson will win by around 2-3%, not a blowout, for the reasons I have stated previously.

[Bidenworth2020]

Umm, this poll is crap, Scott is not winning hispanics by 20 lmao.

exit polls in 2014 had him losing them by 20. With the new found improvement with them, maybe 54-44 Nelson? High amount of white Dems will be crucial.
Then you have to disqualify most of the polls that have come out of Florida. You are not from Florida so you really don't know what's going on Hispanics here do for the most part generally like Rick Scott because of his handling of the hurricanes and Nelson hasn't been doing much. Well yes Scott is not going to win Hispanics by 20 there's a good shot he could do well with them

BUT 20 IS RIDICULOUS!! Come on man!

First of all stop using all caps it's annoying. Second they probably oversampled Cubans, which is pretty common among pollsters here. Also the factors on the ground at do suggest that Scott is going to do well with recent Puerto Rican immigrants that have registered to vote which will skew the Hispanic vote more in his favor. All I'm saying is because you see numbers that you don't like doesn't mean that you can instantly throw it away there are a lot of factors going on here that will make this race both interesting and unique.

All I'm saying is this race is going to be a toss-up it's probably going to be one of the races that's going to be the last to be called on Election night.

These aren't numbers that I don't like, they are completely unrealistic. If Scott wins hispanics by 20, it means Nelson was outed as a pedo.

That's a very interesting assumption that you're making. I'm not saying that he's going to win by 20 but I'm saying is he's probably at least going to keep it close

[Devils30]

The GOP numbers with Florida Hispanics make no sense. If I was Scott I’d be fretting that Nelson and Gillum are really up 5. Trump approval again is much higher than you’d expect

[MT Treasurer]

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

Source?

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This isn’t really true, though:

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695

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Depends on what you mean by "break"? He’s doing (significantly, depending on what poll you are inclined to believe more) better among Hispanic voters than Trump did in 2016.

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Yeah, that result wouldn’t be surprising at all, I just find your reasoning a little bizarre.