OH-Change Research-Brown +4
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Author Topic: OH-Change Research-Brown +4  (Read 2856 times)
Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #25 on: September 08, 2018, 01:48:40 PM »

Change isn't the greatest pollster (putting it mildly) but would this result really surprise you guys that much? Remember that Brown beat trash-tier candidate Josh Mandel by only 6 points in 2012, and Ohio has veered sharply to the right since then. Yeah, 2018 will likely be a better environment for Dems, but 2012 wasn't exactly a poor environment for Senate Democrats either. I've always thought this race was going to narrow. I'd be way more shocked at Brown winning by double digits than I would be at him winning by 4.

Right now it's an outlier. Every other poll has had Brown double digits
Yep!  RCP DOES NOT EVEN LIST IT!  But you have to admit they ran a good poll of the Florida Democrat Governor’s race!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #26 on: September 08, 2018, 01:59:55 PM »

Change isn't the greatest pollster (putting it mildly) but would this result really surprise you guys that much? Remember that Brown beat trash-tier candidate Josh Mandel by only 6 points in 2012, and Ohio has veered sharply to the right since then. Yeah, 2018 will likely be a better environment for Dems, but 2012 wasn't exactly a poor environment for Senate Democrats either. I've always thought this race was going to narrow. I'd be way more shocked at Brown winning by double digits than I would be at him winning by 4.

Right now it's an outlier. Every other poll has had Brown double digits
Yep!  RCP DOES NOT EVEN LIST IT!  But you have to admit they ran a good poll of the Florida Democrat Governor’s race!

If I was you I’d be a little happier about this right now. Everybody that wasn’t an atlas dem blusterer knew that Brown was never gonna win big league and this race was always going to tighten like AZ and would be GOP winnable. Granted, I still think Brown wins, and by something like 4-6 points, but Ohio is still overestimated for dems.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #27 on: September 08, 2018, 04:11:39 PM »

Change isn't the greatest pollster (putting it mildly) but would this result really surprise you guys that much? Remember that Brown beat trash-tier candidate Josh Mandel by only 6 points in 2012, and Ohio has veered sharply to the right since then. Yeah, 2018 will likely be a better environment for Dems, but 2012 wasn't exactly a poor environment for Senate Democrats either. I've always thought this race was going to narrow. I'd be way more shocked at Brown winning by double digits than I would be at him winning by 4.

Right now it's an outlier. Every other poll has had Brown double digits

The last poll was 3 months ago.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
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« Reply #28 on: September 09, 2018, 09:10:24 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2018, 09:13:42 PM by DTC »

Brown losing steam fast, as +16 lead went down to +4. Tim Ryan will win OH-Sen, as roots of the black community and youth are essential, however it looks like Dewine and Renacci will be winning the day in Nov, unless the Latino rodeo comes to town
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #29 on: September 09, 2018, 09:30:29 PM »

These polls showing Dems as well as GOP candidates winning and losing are reflecting change. Dems will lose as well as incumbent GOPers, but more GOPers are on ballot and it will be a bad midterm for the GOP.

Brown and Cordray are running against DeWine, who is kinda overrated like he was in 2006
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