FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3 (user search)
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  FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3  (Read 4437 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


« on: September 04, 2018, 01:45:32 PM »

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
That just increases Gillum's lead.

I think you may have career options as a Democratic Dean Chambers. Yes, DeSantis is not going to win 6/10 Hispanics, but that is not how one ought to interpret polls, by picking on one or 2 crosstabs one doesn't like and selectively saying "this cross-tab is wrong in favor of x party." Error will generally not be confined to a single crosstab and will normally go in multiple partially offsetting directions.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2018, 01:48:31 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2018, 01:54:30 PM by Cruz Will Win 👁 »

The crosstabs really don't make sense, DeSantis winning the Hispanic vote (56-43) while winning the white vote by 52-45, this.....seems off, if Gillum wins the Hispanic vote (which he should) then Gillum in actuality might be leading by a LOT more

That is not how to interpret polls. Yes, I think it will be a good Dem year and Gillum will more likely than not win, but a priori, it could almost as easily be that the Hispanic crosstab is entirely accurate and the White crosstab is overstating Gillum. This is only a bit less likely statistically because the white population (and hence sample size) is higher than the Hispanic population/sample.
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