FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:16:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3  (Read 4439 times)
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 04, 2018, 01:11:45 PM »

50/47. Interesting crosstabs, with DeSantis winning Hispanics and Gillum Indies.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2018, 01:13:34 PM »

Tossup/Tilt D.

I said Gillum was fine, but all the concern trolls were like "DeSantis is going to win BIG! FBI investigation the next Watergate!" LOL at PNM and IceSpear saying he would be destroyed by one random investigation nobody cares about.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2018, 01:13:37 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2018, 01:21:05 PM by President Johnson »

Great poll! Especially because Gillum is at 50%. Still a toss-up, though, but encouraging.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2018, 01:14:40 PM »

Lol, DeSantis ain’t winning the Latino vote and not by that margin either. Anyways, great to see Gillum ahead.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2018, 01:16:12 PM »

Trump approval at 47/51. He's definitely in a better position in FL than in the rest of the country. For some reason.

Also, lol @ the Atlas meltdown on the day of the primary.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2018, 01:16:17 PM »

Wow, hes even at 50. This is tilt/lean D, especially because of the quality of the pollster.

And if DeSantis is winning the Latino vote in this poll, then I worry for DeSantis.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2018, 01:24:05 PM »

4.3% margin of error though, so keep that in mind.

Base vs. bases Gillum keeps 93% of Democrats & DeSantis keeps 92% of GOP.

And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,027
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2018, 01:26:02 PM »

4.3% margin of error though, so keep that in mind.

Base vs. bases Gillum keeps 93% of Democrats & DeSantis keeps 92% of GOP.

And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2018, 01:27:19 PM »

4.3% margin of error though, so keep that in mind.

Base vs. bases Gillum keeps 93% of Democrats & DeSantis keeps 92% of GOP.

And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
That just increases Gillum's lead.
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,860
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2018, 01:28:21 PM »


And independents are breaking for Gillum 55% to 42%.... DAMN

NPA voters are sick of the GOP.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2018, 01:29:19 PM »

Tilt D.

November 6 is going to be an amazing night for progressive grassroots in the Deep South.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,613
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2018, 01:31:26 PM »

I guess the crosstabs must have some pretty big MoE.
Anyway, I doubt that even Florida Hispanics will vote overwhelmingly a Trump Mini-Me.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,027
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2018, 01:31:51 PM »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,764
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2018, 01:31:55 PM »

DeSantis isn't even leading in QU poll.
Logged
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2018, 01:33:22 PM »

Desantis is done
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2018, 01:37:58 PM »

Surprised that nobody has noted that Gillum is winning white women by 7 points (HRC lost Florida white women by 24).
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2018, 01:38:27 PM »

Tilt D. No Senate numbers, or will they be released tomorrow?
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,027
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2018, 01:41:53 PM »

The crosstabs really don't make sense, DeSantis winning the Hispanic vote (56-43) while winning the white vote by 52-45, this.....seems off, if Gillum wins the Hispanic vote (which he should) then Gillum in actuality might be leading by a LOT more
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2018, 01:45:32 PM »

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
That just increases Gillum's lead.

I think you may have career options as a Democratic Dean Chambers. Yes, DeSantis is not going to win 6/10 Hispanics, but that is not how one ought to interpret polls, by picking on one or 2 crosstabs one doesn't like and selectively saying "this cross-tab is wrong in favor of x party." Error will generally not be confined to a single crosstab and will normally go in multiple partially offsetting directions.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2018, 01:46:49 PM »

the crosstabs aren't great though, there's no way DeSantis is winning almost 6/10 Hispanics
That just increases Gillum's lead.

I think you may have career options as a Democratic Dean Chambers. Yes, DeSantis is not going to win 6/10 Hispanics, but that is not how one ought to interpret polls, by picking on one or 2 crosstabs one doesn't like and selectively saying "this cross-tab is wrong in favor of x party." Error will generally not be confined to a single crosstab and will normally go in multiple partially offsetting directions.

Agreed. DeSantis only winning Whites by 7 seems off as well.
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2018, 01:48:31 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2018, 01:54:30 PM by Cruz Will Win 👁 »

The crosstabs really don't make sense, DeSantis winning the Hispanic vote (56-43) while winning the white vote by 52-45, this.....seems off, if Gillum wins the Hispanic vote (which he should) then Gillum in actuality might be leading by a LOT more

That is not how to interpret polls. Yes, I think it will be a good Dem year and Gillum will more likely than not win, but a priori, it could almost as easily be that the Hispanic crosstab is entirely accurate and the White crosstab is overstating Gillum. This is only a bit less likely statistically because the white population (and hence sample size) is higher than the Hispanic population/sample.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2018, 01:53:07 PM »

Still a Toss-Up, but maybe Atlas was wrong to start congratulating Governor-elect DeSantis the second Gillum won the primary?
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,860
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2018, 02:10:27 PM »

Logged
gottsu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 822
Poland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2018, 02:39:19 PM »

I think that Independents are disgusted by trumpism of DeSantis, and Hispanics carry ethnic resentment to Afroamericans, and that's why they side mostly with GOP in this poll.
Logged
Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,490
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2018, 03:26:43 PM »

I think that Independents are disgusted by trumpism of DeSantis, and Hispanics carry ethnic resentment to Afroamericans, and that's why they side mostly with GOP in this poll.
I think Florida Hispanics are misinformed and believe that DeSantis himself is Hispanic.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 14 queries.