FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:19:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: FL-Quinnipiac: Gillum +3  (Read 4449 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,809
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 04, 2018, 04:35:31 PM »

Once again FL turns election upside down and turns a safe R state to a Tilt D race.😁
Logged
Chief Justice Keef
etr906
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 04, 2018, 04:46:20 PM »

Still a Toss-Up, but maybe Atlas was wrong to start congratulating Governor-elect DeSantis the second Gillum won the primary?

YEAH BUT THE NICE WHITE LADY WOULD BE LEADING BY 10
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 04, 2018, 04:58:10 PM »

Tossup/Tilt D.

I said Gillum was fine, but all the concern trolls were like "DeSantis is going to win BIG! FBI investigation the next Watergate!" LOL at PNM and IceSpear saying he would be destroyed by one random investigation nobody cares about.

I find it pretty amusing you rate it as a toss up yet simultaneously find it so outrageously offensive that people would have the audacity to give Gillum 30% odds of winning, lol.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 04, 2018, 05:01:32 PM »

New Poll: Florida Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2018-09-03

Summary: D: 50%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: September 04, 2018, 05:12:29 PM »

Come on Gillum go get em!!
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: September 04, 2018, 05:13:19 PM »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: September 04, 2018, 05:16:25 PM »

If DeSantis was ahead, IceSpear would lecture us on how the evil racist Nazi Republicans will give DeSantis a double digits landslide and how Democrats should triage this race. Oh, and DeSantis can't possibly go down, because scandals and attack ads don't EVER effect Republicans.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: September 04, 2018, 06:27:16 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2018, 06:31:28 PM by Zaybay »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

It’s almost like the public hasn’t heard much about the FBI investigation yet. Imagine that! Gillum has admittedly a pretty good response to that, but if Zaybay and Politician want to count their eggs now, go right ahead. Florida is known for burning Democrats.

The FBI investigation has been known for a long time, and its unlikely to change any minds for one reason. This isnt MA, where an R can win if he runs the right campaign and turns enough heads. This is FL, where its a turnout game.

Most voters are already in their bubble before the election even starts, and there are very little swing voters. There are, of course, chinks in both party's armour, the FLDEM Hispanics and the FLGOP Panhandle Whites, but most of the time, these groups dont budge.

If you want an example of how this game works, look at 2010, and 2014. Scott tried to rely on only R voters, and the Ds were able to hold him to one point. Scott, knowing this, has been targeting Hispanics for a reason, its the D chink. DeSantis, not following Scott's lesson, is doing the exact same thing 2010 Scott did, and there is no R wave year to give him the 1-2% needed for him to win.

And candidates can still win with scandals. Scott defrauded medicare, which is probably a more serious offense than Gillum's. But the base of voters didnt care, and thats what gave Scott the win in the end.

Politics plays differently in different states. While MT, ND, IN, MA, VT, NH, and so on are convincing games, FL is a turnout game.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: September 04, 2018, 06:58:25 PM »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: September 04, 2018, 07:02:31 PM »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.
Its the "candidate quality only affects Ds and national environment isnt a thing" take.
Logged
scutosaurus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,665
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: September 04, 2018, 07:05:30 PM »

This is still a tossup race (just like it always has been), with poor candidates on both sides. National environment should probably carry Gillum over the edge, but I wouldn't count DeSantis out at all.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: September 04, 2018, 07:09:06 PM »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.
Its the "candidate quality only affects Ds and national environment isnt a thing" take.

Where does it imply anything about the national environment? IceSpear even says the ads could work against him or not, because the scandal is there, and they're going to be used against him. That's not true for DeSantis yet,, but could very well be in the future.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: September 04, 2018, 07:10:10 PM »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.
Its the "candidate quality only affects Ds and national environment isnt a thing" take.

Where did I say the political environment didn't matter? If this was a neutral year I'd see Gillum winning as a huge longshot, and if it was a Republican wave he'd be DOA.

And candidate quality clearly matters less for Rs than it does for Ds. Look at the incumbent president.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: September 04, 2018, 07:13:44 PM »

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.
Its the "candidate quality only affects Ds and national environment isnt a thing" take.

Where did I say the political environment didn't matter? If this was a neutral year I'd see Gillum winning as a huge longshot, and if it was a Republican wave he'd be DOA.

And candidate quality clearly matters less for Rs than for Ds. Look at the incumbent president.

Just wait until DeSantis and co start to release those attack ads, I am optimistic for Gillum, but the main campaign hasn't started yet

Whoa, don't go using too much logic here. Didn't you get the memo? The September 4th Quinnipiac poll has replaced the November election, and Gillum is now Gov-elect!

Just like how Scott's polling advantage wasn't all it was cracked up to be due to Nelson's campaign not getting off the ground until now, the same is true of this race. Gillum has yet to be targeted in a negative ad blitz. That'll change very soon. It could move the numbers, or it could not. We'll see.

This is the correct take.
Its the "candidate quality only affects Ds and national environment isnt a thing" take.

Where does it imply anything about the national environment? IceSpear even says the ads could work against him or not, because the scandal is there, and they're going to be used against him. That's not true for DeSantis yet,, but could very well be in the future.

As I said before in a previous post, FL is not the state where scandals and head turning can work. Its a turnout state, and Gillum is clearly doing the right thing. And, if you guys think Gillum is scandal plagued, I would like to hear your opinion on DeSantis, who got into two controversies in the first day.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: September 04, 2018, 07:45:37 PM »

I think that Independents are disgusted by trumpism of DeSantis, and Hispanics carry ethnic resentment to Afroamericans, and that's why they side mostly with GOP in this poll.
I think Florida Hispanics are misinformed and believe that DeSantis himself is Hispanic.

I don't know why people can't comprehend that it's an Italian last name. It has "De" as a prefix. That automatically scrams Italian to me. I know two people with the DeSantis surname here in New Jersey (Italians in New Jersey? Who saw that coming?) and they are blonde Italians, pretty far from Hispanic/Latin-American.

Anyway, this is yet another encouraging poll and I will admit to be being one of those hand-wringers on the night of the primary. I look back on those posts with slight embarrassment, and I hope to be even more embarrassed if Gillum manages to pull off a win. It's still a tossup though. I don't want my eagerness for a Gillum win to be too premature either.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2018, 12:15:02 AM »

Once again FL turns election upside down and turns a safe R state to a Tilt D race.😁

When has a recent Safe R election in FL suddenly turn Tilt D? Not that this race was ever Safe R.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,809
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: September 05, 2018, 12:45:51 AM »

The Senate candidates are leading Democratic candidates to victory in these red states like these.
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,510
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: September 05, 2018, 11:01:10 AM »

The race is Tossup
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: September 05, 2018, 11:40:43 AM »

Uh, the only reason Scott didn’t win by double digits like the rest of the statewide ticket in 2010 and 2014 was because he was “scandaled.” My God the hackery  on this forum sometimes
I'm sorry you refuse to accept Gillum has yet to trail in a single poll where the national environment can only get better for Democrats because "MUH GILLUM UNELECTABLE".
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: September 05, 2018, 11:42:26 AM »

Uh, the only reason Scott didn’t win by double digits like the rest of the statewide ticket in 2010 and 2014 was because he was “scandaled.” My God the hackery  on this forum sometimes
I'm sorry you refuse to accept Gillum has yet to trail in a single poll where the national environment can only get better for Democrats because "MUH GILLUM UNELECTABLE".
Yeah, if anything, Gillum is the one who will improve, not DeSantis. I cant believe that GA, where Abrams is losing, is considered a tossup, but a state where we have a modest lead is also considered a tossup because of....reasons?
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,711


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: September 05, 2018, 12:27:48 PM »

I think it's worth noting that this same poll found Scott/Nelson tied at 49 each... so Gillum is running ahead of Nelson.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: September 05, 2018, 01:40:08 PM »

I think it's worth noting that this same poll found Scott/Nelson tied at 49 each... so Gillum is running ahead of Nelson.

Even though I know the Venn (sp?) Diagram would only cover 1-2% of the electorate, I'm having a hell of a time conceiving a Gillum-Scott voter.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,809
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: September 05, 2018, 01:53:45 PM »

It's a wave election not a neutral one and Nelson will help Gillum over the finish line
Logged
Donerail
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,345
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: September 05, 2018, 02:03:14 PM »

I think it's worth noting that this same poll found Scott/Nelson tied at 49 each... so Gillum is running ahead of Nelson.

Even though I know the Venn (sp?) Diagram would only cover 1-2% of the electorate, I'm having a hell of a time conceiving a Gillum-Scott voter.

Puerto Rican voter in Kissimmee?
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: September 05, 2018, 02:10:21 PM »

Uh, the only reason Scott didn’t win by double digits like the rest of the statewide ticket in 2010 and 2014 was because he was “scandaled.” My God the hackery  on this forum sometimes
I'm sorry you refuse to accept Gillum has yet to trail in a single poll where the national environment can only get better for Democrats because "MUH GILLUM UNELECTABLE".

Terri Lynn Land can't possibly do worse than she's doing now because the environment will only get better for Republicans. Safe R.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 12 queries.