TX CD 23 in 2018 and Historical Context and Electoral Data

[NOVA Green]

Now that we are starting to see some precinct level results flowing in some Counties within this Congressional District, it is time to go back and take a look at these results in further detail....

Let's start with the Vote Share by County from 2012 to 2018 for the US-House Race to see what that tells us when it comes to the overall distribution of voters by Place....



Perhaps not surprisingly, especially in a Midterm Election Bexar County continued to expand their vote share, now accounting for 51.4% of Ballots Cast and Accepted for the CD-23 election....

The next largest Vote Bank within CD-23 (a sliver of El Paso County), has continued to oscillate when it comes to Presidential Election Years versus Midterm elections, but still finished +2.5% greater total CD-23 House Vote share compared to 2014.

Although El Paso County lost 0.5% of Vote Share compared to the 2016 GE House Vote, it's the only other County other than Baxter, which has actually gained Vote Share compared to 2012...

Medina County did narrowly gain vote share compared to 2016 GE Results, although still 0.8% lower than the 2014 Midterms.

Ok--- now let's look at the raw vote margins by County for CD-23 House Elections between '12 and '18....



So we see the Republican stronghold within CD-23 of Bexar County, have the best performance for a Democratic House Candidate since before 2012....

We see El Paso County precincts of CD-23 well out-perform the 2014 CD-23 election, and even 2012 Presidential Year Election US-House Election numbers within the District (!!!).

We see heavily Republican Medina County, come close to their 2016 CD-23 House Election margins (!!!).

We see Democratic Margins collapse in Val Verde County, which has been traditionally even in the 2014 Midterm Election, been a reliable DEM RAW VOTE MARGIN BANK....

This is extremely odd, especially if we contrast against 2014, but unfortunately I haven't been able to smoke out the precinct results yet for that County, but certainly something we all need to examine in much more detail....

Maverick County still performs much better than their 2014 CD-23 performance for a DEM candidate...

Uvalde County: Again something weird going on there (See Val Verde County above)....

Zavala County: Holds their own and DEM margins increase significantly compared to 2014.

Meanwhile, DEM RAW VOTE MARGINS take hits in many of the small rurals and "OTHER Counties" category (We'll get back to that later once I start going through County level detail).

Now let's look at the raw margin swing by County '16 to '18 for the US-House Race in TX-CD-23



What we see here are the types of swings the DEM Candidate needed to hit in the right places....

Those Bexar County swings are crazy....

I will be going back and taking a look at this in greater detail, starting with the precincts of Bexar County, but it's pretty clear the DEM had a major issue among a handful of overwhelmingly DEM Counties in the Rio Grande Valley, even after adjusting for lower voter turnout in some of these heavily Latino border Counties, although this pattern was not universal which raises the question as to why....

[NOVA Green]

Let's go back to Bexar County precincts of TX-CD-23 and take a look at how the relatively affluent Anglos that dominate the voting population have historically voted (Although there are certainly plenty of Latino populations within the Bexar portion of the District)....

Although many of these voters are "Anglo Water Park Moms" that take their kids down to mingle with the heavily Tejano and 2nd and 3rd Generation Mexican-Americans all trying to beat the heat of the hot Central Texas sun, people retreat to their neighborhoods, and the temp cools off quicker in the Hills around SA, and plus Central AC helps out (Although it comes with a massive cost, especially the bigger the house).

I digress:

Here are how voters within TX CD-23 have voted for Federal Elections between 2012 and 2016 in a Chart Form:



ok--- that's a bit of a crap graph....

Let's look at it from another angle....



WOW---this is absolutely Crazy---- !!!

Blue is Democrat and Orange is Republican....

BETO won the Anglo 'Burbs of SA in CD-23....

Next stop delving further into the Weeds of this mystery, to see *** WHERE *** all of this occurred so maybe we can decipher the *** WHY ***

I do know that there are CD-23 precincts where Ortiz-Jones did better than BETO and the contrary, but regardless these are some pretty devastating numbers for PUBs in TX....

As I observed in the late '80s and early '90s in Oregon / Washington, once the 'Burbs start to flip and see themselves as a "Metro United" vs "Metro Divided", things start to shift....

We some something similar in NorCal in the early / Mid 1990s, and a bit later on in SoCal....

Still, not enough data points, but if DJT is the PUB PRES candidate, I suspect there is a good chance his numbers will collapse further in out here, and a decent chance he will drag down Hurd with him....

[NOVA Green]

Time to shift gears a little bit and start to break down Bexar County CD-23 into slightly greater detail....

Let's start with looking at the most Republican part of the County, the Northeastern Part of the District....

It consists predominately of precincts located within the City of San Antonio, as well as some Unincorporated areas, that are effectively suburban in nature.



These precincts collectively accounted for 33.0% of the US REP '16 CD-23 part of Bexar County, and 39% of the US REP '14 CD-23 part of Bexar County....

Let's take a peak at how they voted in recent elections....



So we see that at the Congressional Level, this part of the District tends to vote 2:1 Republican, but that there was a huge 17% gap between 2016 PRES results vs 2014/2016 US-REP results....

Although Trump still won here convincingly, there was a +19% D Swing at the Presidential Level between 2012 and 2016....

If the ~ +20% Dem Pres swing number doesn't ring a bell with anyone, the Atlas Collective can provide a comprehensive list of places where these types of swings occurred.

Now, what is interesting here is that we didn't really see any impact between '14 and '16 at the US-House level....

One of the key questions that surely occurs to many of us, are the midterm polling and special election results we are seeing simply a lagging indicator in many districts where among certain populations there was a massive swing at the Presidential Level, but no real movement at the Congressional Level?

Will voters in TX CD-23 NE Bexar County vote Democratic for their local Representative at the same levels they did for US President in 2016?

If so, that could obviously make the difference, even in a Non-Presidential Election Year.

Social-Demographics of the Republican Strongholds of CD-23 Bexar County Northeast....

This gets tricky, because of the heavily distorted Pub Gerrymandered map makes it difficult to align Census Tract data with Precinct data, without spending hours and hours of time....

Let's start with the canary in the coalmine...

Here is a map of "White Non-Latino Population" by Census Tract...

The oval black outline roughly corresponds to the Anglo Population within Bexar County CD-23 NE.



So, here we see one of the more heavily Anglo portions of Bexar County... I could pull a graphic of the Latino % of total population, African-American, Asian-American, etc, but without really delving into the details of individual precincts, I'm not sure the labor-hours invested would be worth the ROI.

Still, it is important to remind folks out there that Latino % of Total Population does not equal Latino % of VAP.... This is a result of multiple factors, but one of the biggest is simply that the Latino population tends to be lower in age than other communities, including many under the age of 18.

Let's look at the big picture when it comes to MHI within this portion of the District...



So what we see here is that "generally" these places tend to have a much higher Median Household Income than most other places within Bexar County....

Now, I could post multiple maps of Educational Attainment (Would have to be multiple since the source I use splits the Census Maps by levels of Attainment).... but once again, you will see that same correlation....

So.... Will the most Republican Voters in TX CD-23 (Outside of smaller rurals---) pull a ballot for Ortiz-Jones (D) vs. Hurd (R-Incumbent)? It doesn't take a massive swing, basically these types of folks voting US-House closer to how they voted for US-PRES, to flip this seat.

Now that we have the precinct results available for Bexar County, I went back and reviewed the 2018 numbers for US House CD-23 and US-SEN-TX for this part of the district.

Let's go back to the Vote Share for US-REP from these NE Precincts...

2018: 33.5% of Bexar County CD-23
2016: 33.0% of Bexar County CD-23
2014: 39.0% of Bexar County CD-23

Essentially what this tells us here is that these precincts reverted to more of a typical vote share of a Presidential Election Year in 2018, rather than a Midterm Election Year (As the abysmal Turnout in 2014).

Now what do the Raw Votes tell us for Federal Elections between 2012 and 2018?



So here we see the total vote looking like the following:

2012: 33.5k to 34.0k  (US-House to PRES)
2014: 22.0k               (US-House)
2016: 38.0k to 38.5k  (US-House to PRES)
2018: 36.1k to 36.5k  (US-House to US-SEN)

Pretty impressive Turnout in 2018, considering that it was roughly 95% of the 2016 PRES numbers, and 7% higher than the 2012 PRES numbers, even if we account for some population growth here.

If we look at the Raw Vote by Party, we see BETO hit 15k raw Votes, for a +1.4k gain over HRC in 2016, and essentially created a new record performance for a DEM in this part of the District.

We see the DEM candidate for CD-23 gain a raw +1.7k Votes compared to the performance in 2016, which was the next highest raw DEM vote here.

On the PUB side, we see Cruz lose 2k votes compared to 2012, while BETO gained 6k votes compared to the DEM in 2012.

The PUB candidate for US REP lost 2.7k votes compared to 2016, but still well out-performed Cruz, and even beat Trump's 2016 Votes, still while losing a significant number of votes!

PUBs will typically bag a net +12k to +14k raw vote lead over their DEM challengers alone from these precincts, so a +6k to +10k lead is less than impressive regardless.

Now, let's look at that same data as a % of support for Federal Candidates 2012 to 2018 by Party:



So here we see that Republicans typically grab 67% to 70% of the vote, while Democrats have struggled to hit 30%.

Something changed for the 2016 Presidential Race, however as Republican support plummeted to 58.8%, and HRC garnered 35.4% of the Vote (With 5.8% going to 3rd Party Candidates).

For the US-SEN race in 2018, the DEM managed to capture 41.2% of the Vote, and Cruz numbers dropped to 58.0%.

For the CD-23 House race, the DEM came just slightly under HRCs numbers with 35.3% support, and the PUB sank to 63.2%.

One interesting item to look at here, is that appears that BETO benefited from 3rd Party voters (Combined with winning some Trump '16 Voters), but for the US-House race, that does not appear to have been as much the case.

Let's close with looking at the Swings compared to some previous elections...



If we look at the 2018 Senate Race we see a +25% DEM swing compared both the 2012 PRES race and the 2012 TX-SEN race!

If we compare the 2018 SEN race against the 2016 PRES race we see a +6.6% DEM Swing.

If we compare the 2018 CD-23 race against the 2016 PRES race, we see a +4.5% PUB swing.

If we compare the 2018 CD-23 race against the 2016 CD-23 race, we see a + 9.8% DEM swing.

So in closing, although BETOs performance we impressive, it's pretty clear the collapse of PUB support at the Federal level started at the Presidential Election of 2016, and that the 2018 TX-SEN race was simply a continuation of that trend.

If we look at the DEMs performance for CD-23, although PUB support was still higher than Trump's support, there was a significantly larger swing towards the DEMs contrasted against the Senate Race. As I suggested prior to the 2018 election, the US-House race was likely going to be a lagging indicator of a process that started for PUBs in these parts at the time of '16 PRES election.

It would not be surprising to see these trends continue in 2020 if Trump is still the de facto leader of the Republican Party.

[NOVA Green]

Now it's time to take a look at the NW Portion of Bexar County CD-23....



These precincts collectively account for:

2012: CD-23 REP Bexar County Vote Share: 14.9%
2014: CD-23 REP Bexar County Vote Share: 17.0%
2016: CD-23 REP Bexar County Vote Share: 15.2%

Let's take a look at how NW Bexar County CD-23 voted in recent elections:



So again we see similar numbers compared to NE Bexar County CD-23....

1.)  A +18% D swing between the '12 and '16 Presidential Elections
2.) An overwhelmingly Republican Electorate (70-73% for US-House '12/'16, TX-SEN '12, and US PRES '12.
3.) HRC hits 30% in a part of the District where DEMS typically would only hit 25-27% of the Vote, regardless of the Race.

Now let's pull up some maps by Census Tract of Bexar County CD-23 NW Precincts:



Let's look at the Census Tract Map of Bexar County CD-23 NW Precincts by total Latino Population:



These numbers might possibly explain some of the minor variances in places like Precinct # 3151 por ejemplo, but obviously we need to look at most of the voters in these precincts as being overwhelmingly Anglo...

We do see a few clusters of Census Block Group maps of Asian-Americans with ~ 6.5% -7.0% in the Middle Range around SH-10 (--- Old Man Eyes staring at precinct maps... ).

Very few Brothers and Sista's living out in these Neighborhoods....

Now let's look at the Bexar County CD-23 NW Precincts by Household Income...



Hmmm... on Average it looks like Household out yonder are clearing ~ $120k/Yr.

Again, I can pull up maps based upon educational attainment, but it would take a few of them, and I suspect Y'All already know the answer....

I'll be doing more work on this project, since ultimately it is a story about Texas, with CD-23 in many ways looking like a Microcosm of a much deeper story....

Although Hurd might well be able to survive the Tsunami, Cruz might well not if BETO is able to hit HRC '16 margins in these types of communities that exist all over the Great State of Tejas from the Metro areas of Houston, to DFW, Austin, and SA, and beyond....

Now let's review this in light of 2018 Precinct returns available for the CD-23 and US-SEN-TX race from Bexar County.

Let's start with the NW Bexar County portion of the CD-23 Bexar County Vote Share:

2012: CD-23 REP Bexar County Vote Share: 14.9%
2014: CD-23 REP Bexar County Vote Share: 17.0%
2016: CD-23 REP Bexar County Vote Share: 15.2%
2018: CD-23 REP Bexar County Vote Share: 16.4%

So it's pretty clear that this portion of the Bexar County portion of the District is growing faster than the NE portion of the district, and these two Republican Strongholds collectively accounted for 50% of the Bexar County portion of the CD-23 Vote.

Let's take a look at what the raw vote numbers for Federal Races between 2012 and 2018 tell us of these precincts?



TOTAL VOTES:

2012: 13.4k to 13.6k (US-HOUSE to US PRES)
2014:  9.4k               (US-HOUSE)
2016: 16.9k to 17.1k  (US-HOUSE to US PRES)
2018: 17.7k to 17.9k  (US-HOUSE to US-SEN)

More votes were cast in the 2018 Midterm than in the 2016 PRES election (!!!).

Likely the attractions are easy proximity to the I-10 as you start leaving Metro SA heading up in elevation towards the Hill Country, passing places like Forest Creek, Dominion, Leon Springs, River Rock Ranch, and Country Estates....

Almost 18k Votes were cast here in 2018, and the number will likely climb even higher in 2020.

We see relatively consistent PUB performance across the board in 2012, with PUB numbers increasing the closer you climb up the FED level....

2014 was once again horrible Turnout across the Board.

2016, we see both DEM and PUB numbers increase in the CD-23 race, and PUBs easily throw another +1.7k add on into their bag compared to 2012 Margins....

Meanwhile the PUB PRES nominee took a hit, as HRC cuts Trump's margins by 1.2k Votes compared to Obama-Romney 2012.

This is all the more remarkable considering there were 3.5k more voters for the '16 PRES election than the '12 PRES election.

DEMs captured a record 5.4k voters for PRES here in '16....

2018: Cruz barely beats Trump raw numbers and only adds 200 PUB votes, while BETO adds 1.4k more DEM voters in the Tally....

This was not reciprocated in the US-HOUSE race, where DEMs add +500 Votes compared to HRC and Hurd added +800 numbers compared to Trump....

Still overall Gina Ortiz-Jones managed to shave 1.8k Votes off of Hurd's margins compared to 2016!!!

So, as I did with NE portions of Bexar County CD-23 let's take a look at the raw % by Federal Races between 2012 and 2018....




So again, we see a similar pattern that was observed in the NE precincts of Bexar County CD-23.

Democratic support is even lower (Possibly because of correlation with even Higher income levels or greater % of Anglos ) with DEMs only capturing 25% of the Vote for FED elections from 2012/ 2014 and CD-23 (2016).

Something changes at the Presidential level in 2016....

We see HRC capturing 31.7% of the Vote vs Trump's 62.8% (5.5% Voting 3rd Party).

If we look at 2018, we see BETO capturing a record 38.2% vs CRUZ garnering 61.1%.

As my previous comments regarding NE Bexar indicated, it appears that BETO not only gained some Trump '16 voters, but also essentially bagged the overwhelming chunk of 3rd Party '16 and new voters....

Although the DEM candidate for CD-23 only garnered 33.5% vs Hurd's 65.2%, she still gained the 2nd highest share of Democratic voters ever in recent years in these precincts....

We still see her underperforming HRC when it comes to PUB vote % margins, but again it's pretty clear she exceeded benchmarks in these precincts.

Let's take a look at some of the swings between different Federal Elections in these precincts 2012 to 2018:



We see remarkable similarities to the NE-Bexar County portions of CD-23.

(Yes Cruz Will Win maybe you were right back in late SEP / early OCT that I should lump these together, but hey Devil is always in the details--- right?       )

2012 PRES to 2018 SEN:   +25% DEM Swing
2012 SEN to 2018 SEN:     +24% DEM swing
2016 PRES to 2018 SEN:    + 8% DEM Swing
2016 PRES to 2018 HOUSE: +0.6% PUB Swing
2016 House to 2018 HOUSE: + 11.9% DEM Swing (!!!)

[Bidenworth2020]

Thanks for the post game analysis! Very interesting to read. My prediction that Gina Ortiz Jones would lose ground in catholic areas was proved very wrong. As mentioned, Gina outperformed him in most rural areas, losing because of the large crossover in Bexar from Beto to Hurd. This was likely due to the low info surname voters (see Kenedy county) who voted for the person with the most Hispanic-sounding surname.

[NOVA Green]

Thanks for the post game analysis! Very interesting to read. My prediction that Gina Ortiz Jones would lose ground in catholic areas was proved very wrong. As mentioned, Gina outperformed him in most rural areas, losing because of the large crossover in Bexar from Beto to Hurd. This was likely due to the low info surname voters (see Kenedy county) who voted for the person with the most Hispanic-sounding surname.

Well, I wouldn't go that far yet, considering I've only just started the post-game analysis, covering roughly 50% of the voters in Bexar County CD-23, which also happen to be the most Anglo (Which in this part of Tejas tends to translate into the most affluent and educated voters in this part of Bexar County CD-23)...

My plan is to next take a stop to the "DEM" Vote banks of Bexar CD-23 in Western San Antonio, South San Antonio, and Southeast San Antonio....

We have established that overwhelmingly Anglo Upper-Income Voters, along with a much smaller number of Upper Middle-Class Latino and Asian-American Voters swung heavily DEM for the US-SEN and US-House race in 2018 in NE and NW CD-23 precincts of Bexar County.

I'll be taking a stroll down the Streets of some heavily Black/Latino precincts of South-East San Antonio, heavily Latino South San Antonio Precincts, and I believe I left off West San Antonio from my original coverage as well....

Also we do have precinct results available from El Paso County (Although a relatively small sliver of CD-23 still tends to be overwhelmingly Democratic), as well as a few other small Counties in Tejas (Frio, Upton, and Jeff Davis), we are missing massive amounts of data at this point, including from decent sized voting centers within the district such as (Medina, Val Verde, Maverick, Uvalde, and Brewster Counties)....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307483.msg6578445#msg6578445

Stay tuned....

[NOVA Green]

Time to take a trip down to the "Democratic Heartlands" of Bexar County CD-23, down to Southeast, South, and Southwest San Antonio....



Now some of you might say, wait why was this precinct in SE or South SA not included, but reality was that I was trying to focus on more heavy population dense precincts, since there are some additional precincts, not included in my outline that are technically part of the City, but don't appear to have high pop density....

Let's start with the SE Portion of San Antonio located within the CD-23 portions of Bexar County....



County Vote Share: 2016 US-House 4.9% of Bexar Co CD-23, 2014 US-House 4.9%, 2012 9.6% of US-REP vote Share....

So right there we have multiple questions:

1.) Why did the Vote Share of these precincts drop 50% between 2012 and 2014/2016?

       A.) The obvious answer is that other parts of Bexar County CD-23 are growing more rapidly in
            population, especially since the variance between '12/'16 US-REP numbers can't be
            explained by a low turnout '14 US-REP election.

      B.) An alternative hypothesis might be that for whatever reason, VAP population growth increased here between '12 and '16 roughly equivalent to elsewhere within the Bexar County CD-23 SE San Antonio precincts, but voters were less motivated than in other parts of the District within the County.

2.) Why was 2014 such a hot year for a Democratic House Candidate in the District compared to 2012 and 2016 (Which should be contrary to conventional political wisdom)?

3.) Why was there a +15.9% swing towards Trump in an overwhelmingly Democratic Neighborhood(s) of San Antonio?

    A.) 3rd Party Voting does not appear to be the primary reason at the Presidential Level,
         considering Dems lost 9.2% between '12 and '16 and Trump gained 6.7%.

    B.) Drop-Off of Down-Ballot Voters did play a factor in the margins between the 2014 and 2016 in
         the US House Race, but even there only account for maybe 30% of the -15% Dem numbers
         for that race and the +10% Rep numbers for that race when we compare 2014 to 2016.

Ok--- Let's take a look at the Demographics of Bexar CD-23 SE:

Let's start with the % of population that is African-American for the three Census Tracts overlapping these precincts.



Note that the African-American population is even higher for the 0-17% age range than the overall population of these Census Tracts...

Now what about the Latino population for these three Census Tracts?



And of course we need to look at the Anglo population by Census Tract:



Ok a few more data points:

Census Tract: 131200 (Far West Tract)-
MHI: $30.4k /Yr
ED Level: 7.6% > HS Diploma, 58.8% HS Diploma, 33.6% No HS Diploma
Relative Occupations: Construction (11.0%), Transportation (10.5%), Food Service (9.4%)
Relative Industries: Health Care (22.7%), Construction (14.3%)

Census Tract: 131300 (Middle Tract)-
MHI: $36.0k/Yr
ED Level: 27.4% > HS Diploma, 17.9% No HS Diploma
Rel Occupations: Administrative (25%)
Rel Industries: Retail / Construction

Census Tract: 131401 (Eastern Tract)-
MHI: $ 65.5k/Yr
ED Level: 31.8% > HS Diploma, 51.8% HS Diploma, 16.4% No HS Diploma
Rel Occupations: Administrative (16.9%), Repair (11.1%), Construction (10%)
Rel Industries: Health Care (14.5%), Hospitality (11.4%), Education (11.0%).

Whew--- Ok so basically the far Western area has an extremely large working-class African-American and Latino population, with the same rough pattern in the Central Area, and the Eastern Area is much more Middle-Class Latino...

So what does this tell us about the results of recent elections within the district?

In order to try to more closely overlap the Census Tract data with the precinct data, I needed to consolidate the precincts on the Western Part of the Loop 410 from the Eastern Part...

Let's look at the total Vote by Region by Party by Election from 2012 to 2016:



What are some key takeaways here?

1.) There was an increase in approximately 700 voters between the 2012 and 2016 Pres Election.

This growth was entirely concentrated in the Eastern portion.

2.) The Eastern portion, although it is still heavily Democratic, is much less so than the Western Portion, which accounted for the bulk of the total margin swings here between '12 and '16.

3.) In the more heavily African-American precincts of Western SE Bexar CD-23, there was no visible drop-off in support at the Presidential level between '12 and '16 for the Democratic Candidate (Obama 1,943 Votes 2012 and HRC 1,942 Votes 2012). Conversely on the Republican side (Romney 614 Votes and Trump 615 Votes) !!!

4.) The Republican Candidate for CD-23 gained an additional 120 votes between '12 and '16, which appear to have pretty much all come from DEM CD-23 Voters....

It could well be that Will Hurd is performing significantly better among African-American voters within the District than Republicans typically tend to perform.

5.) It will be interesting to see what turnout will look like here in Nov '18 with marquis elections for TX-SEN and TX-GOV attracting attention, compared to 2014....

6.) The Eastern portion of Bexar County CD-23 is where the growth is at, and Trump gained +224 Votes over Romney, whereas HRC gained only + 296 Votes over Obama. 3rd Party Candidates garnered 114 Votes.

7.) If we look at the '12 to '16 results in the Eastern Precincts for US-REP-CD 23, we see the PUB gain + 360 votes and the DEM gain + 101 votes.

Although I haven't looked at Population growth rates within this Census Tract, it's pretty clear there were a significant number of HRC > Hurd Voters in the Middle-Class and more heavily Latino precincts of the Eastern portion of this part of the District.

How will Middle-Class Latinos vote in November 2018 for TX-SEN and US-House- TX- CD 23?

Now time to take a look at a small handful of Precincts in South-East San Antonio that account for one of the largest concentrations of African-American Voters within CD-23.

This small neighborhood is basically on the edge of a relatively large historically Black Community in Eastern San Antonio, where Racist "Red-Line" real estate policies dictated who could live where as part of systematic policies practiced from the Northern States to the Deep South....

With the end of Racist Housing policies in the '60s, like many other Metro Areas in the Country, gradually Younger Residents relocated elsewhere, while older Residents stayed behind.

With the dramatic increase in Mexican Migration to America, many of these historically Black neighborhoods in Texas started to take on a more varied population, as newer immigrant populations created businesses and homes in small family neighborhoods.

TX CD-23 is not a major Black Community, if we look at it within the traditional context of the African-American experience, but yet within the Latino-American experience it is not unusual at all to have Black-Latinos from South America and the Islands living among Mexican and Central-American communities (As I experienced first hand with friends and co-workers in Houston Texas).

So, let's take a look at how this neighborhood has voted in Federal Elections from 2012 to 2018...



TOTAL VOTES:

1.) Obviously a significant decrease from '16 > '18

2012: Total Votes ran from 4.8k to 4.9k
2014: Total Votes--- 2.7k
2016: Total Votes---  5.5k to 5.6k (US-HOUSE to US-PRES)
2018: Total Votes--- 4.9k to 5.0k (US-HOUSE to US-SEN)

DEMS in '18 held steady at their 2012 numbers of +2.3k DEM > +2.6k DEM numbers in the TX-SEN race ( + 2.3k DEM) close to the +2.4k DEM numbers in the PRES race in '16.

DEM raw vote numbers in CD-23 dropped to +2.0k DEM, which matched the '16 HOUSE numbers, despite a much lower Turnout than in a PRES Election Year...

Still a pretty impressive performance compared to the 2012 GE overall, and certainly nothing to sneeze at in the TX-SEN and CD-23 Raw Vote Margins....

Now let's look at the % by Party for FED races 2012 to 2018:



William Hurd actually captured the highest % of a FED PUB in these precincts since before 2012, with 28.4% of the Vote (!!!).

Although these numbers might not sound impressive, he only won 27.7% in 2016, and the PUB only got 26.1% in 2014, and 21.3% in 2012. (!!!).

Although these aren't tons of votes, Turnout and Margins matter in close elections....

Meanwhile BETO captured 72.5% of the Vote, which although respectable, was still below Obama's 73.2% Vote in 2012, and the DEM HOUSE REP's 74.0% in that same Year....

We could blame it all on a Midterm Turnout deal, but in fact Ortiz-Jones actually lost 6% compared to the 2014 Mid-Term election.

Although the DEM margins of victory overall have relatively minor shifts for most of these elections, it is interesting that DEMs were winning with + 46-53% Margins in 2012 and 2014, and now only BETO hits the +46% Margin number....

Still relatively small chunk of the vote in Bexar, but important nonetheless, especially considering swings in some of the Anglo Neighborhoods within the CD in Bexar.

Next Stop South SA (San Antonio for those of you not familiar with Texas).

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- time to take a look at South San Antonio Precincts located within Bexar County CD-23...

So here's a slightly different map, that actually shows the State Highways and Interstate Highways better than my previous version.



This is basically the most Democratic region of Bexar County TX CD-23....

It accounted for 7.2% of the 2016 PRES vote Share within Bexar CD-23, was 7.6% in 2012 PRES vote share, and 6.5% in 2014 for TX-CD 23- US House....

Ok--- Let's look at the map of Latino % of the Population by Census Tracts...



I could try to break it down in greater detail, but basically we are looking at precincts that are 90% Latino...

So how did these precincts vote 2012 to 2016 as a % of Vote by Party by Election?



So basically we haven't seen a Republican garner over 20% of the Vote in any Federal Election....

The drop-off in Democratic PRES numbers between '12 and '16 came entirely off of defections to 3rd Party Candidates (Millennial Voters anyone ).

We did see a marginal increase in PUB support between '12/'14 and '16 for the TX-CD 23 race....

Now, time to take a look at the raw vote numbers by Election and Party for South San Antonio precincts within CD-23....



So.... what does this all mean???

1.) There was a raw +1k vote increase in these precincts between '12 and '16....

2.) DEMS significantly increased their total numbers between '12 and '16 at the PRES level, PUBs were stagnant and 3rd Party Voters increased significantly.

3.) At the TX CD-23 level PUBs improved their performance in '16 compared to '12.

4.) This was less a factor of voters within South Antonio switching political parties, but more a drop-off in support for down-ballot Democratic Candidates.

5.) How will working Class Latinos in South San Antonio turnout in 2018?   Will it be more like 2014 numbers or a bit higher with a US-TX-SEN race on the line? If so, will these voters, punch the down-ballot ticket for Ortiz-Jones or just vote for BETO???

Now we have some real precinct data from the 2018 Midterm Elections, let's take a look at the numbers at one of the largest DEM Vote Banks of Bexar County CD-23....

Let's start with the Vote Share:

2012:    7.6%
2014:    6.5%
2016:    7.2%
2018:    6.2%

So it's pretty clear that the Latino Population of these Precincts tend to be much less likely to vote in Mid-Term elections compared to Presidential Elections...

Now, let's look at the raw votes for Federal Elections 2012 > 2018.



So we see Total Votes floating around 7k in 2012...

Numbers drop down to 3.6k in 2014 in an extremely low-turnout election.

Hit a PRES Election Year in '16 and now numbers run around 8.0k for CD-23 and 8.2k for US-PRES.

Roll onto 2018, and suddenly we see total vote numbers drop to 6.7k (US-HOUSE) and 6.9k (TX-SEN).

Still not too shabby in terms of Turnout at all for a Midterm.

However in 2012 DEMs were clearing +3.8k D to +4.3k D raw voter margins in 2012, and + 4.2k D to +4.6k D margins in 2016....

Naturally only hitting +3.7k D (2018-HOUSE) and +4.0k D (2018-TX SEN) hit hard on the margins in CD-23, and perhaps represents that although there was relatively high Latino Turnout in parts of Tejas in the 2018 SEN election, wasn't quite enough for BETO to defeat Cruz....

Ok--- now let's look at the percentages of South San Antonio precincts between 2012 and 2018 for FED elections....



So if we look at the DEM % numbers and margins in 2018, DEMs aren't doing that bad at all with PUBs still stuck with 20% of the Vote, although the DEM candidate did worse as a % for CD-23 than in '12 and '14....

Still BETO did +3.0% better than HRC in '16 and performed slightly better than Obama in '12....

Regardless, the "Latino Surge" in Midterm elections in certain places does not equal massive swings, so much as it does keeping a reduction in Latino Working Class turnout low, as one of the most reliable Democratic Constituencies in Texas (80% + DEM).

[Bidenworth2020]

Time to take a trip down to the "Democratic Heartlands" of Bexar County CD-23, down to Southeast, South, and Southwest San Antonio....



Now some of you might say, wait why was this precinct in SE or South SA not included, but reality was that I was trying to focus on more heavy population dense precincts, since there are some additional precincts, not included in my outline that are technically part of the City, but don't appear to have high pop density....

Let's start with the SE Portion of San Antonio located within the CD-23 portions of Bexar County....



County Vote Share: 2016 US-House 4.9% of Bexar Co CD-23, 2014 US-House 4.9%, 2012 9.6% of US-REP vote Share....

So right there we have multiple questions:

1.) Why did the Vote Share of these precincts drop 50% between 2012 and 2014/2016?

       A.) The obvious answer is that other parts of Bexar County CD-23 are growing more rapidly in
            population, especially since the variance between '12/'16 US-REP numbers can't be
            explained by a low turnout '14 US-REP election.

      B.) An alternative hypothesis might be that for whatever reason, VAP population growth increased here between '12 and '16 roughly equivalent to elsewhere within the Bexar County CD-23 SE San Antonio precincts, but voters were less motivated than in other parts of the District within the County.

2.) Why was 2014 such a hot year for a Democratic House Candidate in the District compared to 2012 and 2016 (Which should be contrary to conventional political wisdom)?

3.) Why was there a +15.9% swing towards Trump in an overwhelmingly Democratic Neighborhood(s) of San Antonio?

    A.) 3rd Party Voting does not appear to be the primary reason at the Presidential Level,
         considering Dems lost 9.2% between '12 and '16 and Trump gained 6.7%.

    B.) Drop-Off of Down-Ballot Voters did play a factor in the margins between the 2014 and 2016 in
         the US House Race, but even there only account for maybe 30% of the -15% Dem numbers
         for that race and the +10% Rep numbers for that race when we compare 2014 to 2016.

Ok--- Let's take a look at the Demographics of Bexar CD-23 SE:

Let's start with the % of population that is African-American for the three Census Tracts overlapping these precincts.



Note that the African-American population is even higher for the 0-17% age range than the overall population of these Census Tracts...

Now what about the Latino population for these three Census Tracts?



And of course we need to look at the Anglo population by Census Tract:



Ok a few more data points:

Census Tract: 131200 (Far West Tract)-
MHI: $30.4k /Yr
ED Level: 7.6% > HS Diploma, 58.8% HS Diploma, 33.6% No HS Diploma
Relative Occupations: Construction (11.0%), Transportation (10.5%), Food Service (9.4%)
Relative Industries: Health Care (22.7%), Construction (14.3%)

Census Tract: 131300 (Middle Tract)-
MHI: $36.0k/Yr
ED Level: 27.4% > HS Diploma, 17.9% No HS Diploma
Rel Occupations: Administrative (25%)
Rel Industries: Retail / Construction

Census Tract: 131401 (Eastern Tract)-
MHI: $ 65.5k/Yr
ED Level: 31.8% > HS Diploma, 51.8% HS Diploma, 16.4% No HS Diploma
Rel Occupations: Administrative (16.9%), Repair (11.1%), Construction (10%)
Rel Industries: Health Care (14.5%), Hospitality (11.4%), Education (11.0%).

Whew--- Ok so basically the far Western area has an extremely large working-class African-American and Latino population, with the same rough pattern in the Central Area, and the Eastern Area is much more Middle-Class Latino...

So what does this tell us about the results of recent elections within the district?

In order to try to more closely overlap the Census Tract data with the precinct data, I needed to consolidate the precincts on the Western Part of the Loop 410 from the Eastern Part...

Let's look at the total Vote by Region by Party by Election from 2012 to 2016:



What are some key takeaways here?

1.) There was an increase in approximately 700 voters between the 2012 and 2016 Pres Election.

This growth was entirely concentrated in the Eastern portion.

2.) The Eastern portion, although it is still heavily Democratic, is much less so than the Western Portion, which accounted for the bulk of the total margin swings here between '12 and '16.

3.) In the more heavily African-American precincts of Western SE Bexar CD-23, there was no visible drop-off in support at the Presidential level between '12 and '16 for the Democratic Candidate (Obama 1,943 Votes 2012 and HRC 1,942 Votes 2012). Conversely on the Republican side (Romney 614 Votes and Trump 615 Votes) !!!

4.) The Republican Candidate for CD-23 gained an additional 120 votes between '12 and '16, which appear to have pretty much all come from DEM CD-23 Voters....

It could well be that Will Hurd is performing significantly better among African-American voters within the District than Republicans typically tend to perform.

5.) It will be interesting to see what turnout will look like here in Nov '18 with marquis elections for TX-SEN and TX-GOV attracting attention, compared to 2014....

6.) The Eastern portion of Bexar County CD-23 is where the growth is at, and Trump gained +224 Votes over Romney, whereas HRC gained only + 296 Votes over Obama. 3rd Party Candidates garnered 114 Votes.

7.) If we look at the '12 to '16 results in the Eastern Precincts for US-REP-CD 23, we see the PUB gain + 360 votes and the DEM gain + 101 votes.

Although I haven't looked at Population growth rates within this Census Tract, it's pretty clear there were a significant number of HRC > Hurd Voters in the Middle-Class and more heavily Latino precincts of the Eastern portion of this part of the District.

How will Middle-Class Latinos vote in November 2018 for TX-SEN and US-House- TX- CD 23?

Now time to take a look at a small handful of Precincts in South-East San Antonio that account for one of the largest concentrations of African-American Voters within CD-23.

This small neighborhood is basically on the edge of a relatively large historically Black Community in Eastern San Antonio, where Racist "Red-Line" real estate policies dictated who could live where as part of systematic policies practiced from the Northern States to the Deep South....

With the end of Racist Housing policies in the '60s, like many other Metro Areas in the Country, gradually Younger Residents relocated elsewhere, while older Residents stayed behind.

With the dramatic increase in Mexican Migration to America, many of these historically Black neighborhoods in Texas started to take on a more varied population, as newer immigrant populations created businesses and homes in small family neighborhoods.

TX CD-23 is not a major Black Community, if we look at it within the traditional context of the African-American experience, but yet within the Latino-American experience it is not unusual at all to have Black-Latinos from South America and the Islands living among Mexican and Central-American communities (As I experienced first hand with friends and co-workers in Houston Texas).

So, let's take a look at how this neighborhood has voted in Federal Elections from 2012 to 2018...



TOTAL VOTES:

1.) Obviously a significant decrease from '16 > '18

2012: Total Votes ran from 4.8k to 4.9k
2014: Total Votes--- 2.7k
2016: Total Votes---  5.5k to 5.6k (US-HOUSE to US-PRES)
2018: Total Votes--- 4.9k to 5.0k (US-HOUSE to US-SEN)

DEMS in '18 held steady at their 2012 numbers of +2.3k DEM > +2.6k DEM numbers in the TX-SEN race ( + 2.3k DEM) close to the +2.4k DEM numbers in the PRES race in '16.

DEM raw vote numbers in CD-23 dropped to +2.0k DEM, which matched the '16 HOUSE numbers, despite a much lower Turnout than in a PRES Election Year...

Still a pretty impressive performance compared to the 2012 GE overall, and certainly nothing to sneeze at in the TX-SEN and CD-23 Raw Vote Margins....

Now let's look at the % by Party for FED races 2012 to 2018:



William Hurd actually captured the highest % of a FED PUB in these precincts since before 2012, with 28.4% of the Vote (!!!).

Although these numbers might not sound impressive, he only won 27.7% in 2016, and the PUB only got 26.1% in 2014, and 21.3% in 2012. (!!!).

Although these aren't tons of votes, Turnout and Margins matter in close elections....

Meanwhile BETO captured 72.5% of the Vote, which although respectable, was still below Obama's 73.2% Vote in 2012, and the DEM HOUSE REP's 74.0% in that same Year....

We could blame it all on a Midterm Turnout deal, but in fact Ortiz-Jones actually lost 6% compared to the 2014 Mid-Term election.

Although the DEM margins of victory overall have relatively minor shifts for most of these elections, it is interesting that DEMs were winning with + 46-53% Margins in 2012 and 2014, and now only BETO hits the +46% Margin number....

Still relatively small chunk of the vote in Bexar, but important nonetheless, especially considering swings in some of the Anglo Neighborhoods within the CD in Bexar.

Next Stop South SA (San Antonio for those of you not familiar with Texas).

Interesting. It seems likely that these areas may be trending republican because as the older, more AA generation passes, they are replaced by 1) anglos looking for cheaper housing 2) latinos moving in. Both of these demographics, especially the former, are more favorable to republicans.  As for Hurds high performance with AA's his status as one himself must help .

[NOVA Green]

....

Now time to take a look at a small handful of Precincts in South-East San Antonio that account for one of the largest concentrations of African-American Voters within CD-23.

This small neighborhood is basically on the edge of a relatively large historically Black Community in Eastern San Antonio, where Racist "Red-Line" real estate policies dictated who could live where as part of systematic policies practiced from the Northern States to the Deep South....

With the end of Racist Housing policies in the '60s, like many other Metro Areas in the Country, gradually Younger Residents relocated elsewhere, while older Residents stayed behind.

With the dramatic increase in Mexican Migration to America, many of these historically Black neighborhoods in Texas started to take on a more varied population, as newer immigrant populations created businesses and homes in small family neighborhoods.

...

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Interesting observations and entirely plausible, although I don't to profess to be an expert, simply presenting the data that is available....

Still not convinced either #1 or #2 would benefit Hurd in 2020, unless he basically runs on a "Dump the Trump Platform"

Although, this is a relatively small slice of the historically Black Community of East San Antonio, but still we are not too far from the heart and soul of the neighborhood.

https://therivardreport.com/how-the-eastside-became-home-to-san-antonios-black-community/

https://www.expressnews.com/sa300/article/Historic-African-American-neighborhood-evolved-12432112.php

http://nowcastsa.com/blogs/east-side-and-west-side-coming-together-mural-honoring-african-american-women-san-antonio

What I'm curious on is now what do precinct level results look like on Eastside SA heavily Black neighborhoods outside of CD-23???

[NOVA Green]

Now it's time to take a look at a part of Bexar County CD-23 that I wasn't able to hit prior to the 2018 Midterm Elections: WEST SAN ANTONIO:

The precinct map outline looks slightly different than my first go-around for this part of the district, since after reviewing the Demographics, it made sense to lump these heavily Latino Precincts into one basket....

Let's start with a Map of the Precincts included in this exercise....



If we look at the overall Census Tract Data we see something like the following....

Anglo Population by % of Census Block Groups:



So basically Anglos run between 14% and 20% of the total Population....

Latino Population by % of Census Block Groups:



The Latino population runs between 62% and 74% depending upon which Block Group you are looking at...

Now, let's take a look at the Black Population of West SA living within these precincts by Census Block Tracts...



Time to take a look at the Median Household Income by Census Block Tract....



I could go into Educational Attainment, Occupations, and other such items, but unfortunately these take quite a bit of time to pull at a Micro level, but roughly it looks like 13% of the Pop has a Bachelor's Degree, and 25% has a Post-Secondary Degree, with these numbers higher in the Western Portion of the "Neighborhood".

So, I think this gives us something to work off of Demographic wise....

Now let's take a look at Election Results !!!!

First Let's start with the Bexar County Vote share of this part of CD-23 for US-House Elections between 2012 and 2018....

2012: 15.1 % of Bexar County CD-23 Vote Share
2014: 13.5 % of Bexar County CD-23 Vote Share
2016: 17.2 % of Bexar County CD-23 Vote Share
2018: 16.8 % of Bexar County CD-23 Vote Share

So apparently it's not just some of the Anglo 'Burbs that are increasing in vote share, with these precincts now accounting for roughly 17% of the County Vote in both '16 and '18 (I would not be surprised to see it higher in 2020)...


Here are the raw votes between 2012 and 2018 for Federal Elections in Bexar County--- West San Antonio Precincts....



So.... what does this tell us???

TOTAL VOTES:

1.) There was a massive surge in new voters between '12/'14 and '16 /'18 in this part of CD-23.

This may well have been driven by a multiplicity of factors:

A.) Expansion of Housing in a Fast Growing Metro Area with close proximity to the Freeways.

B.) Increase in voters coming of voting age (In this area more likely to be Latino).

C.) Dramatic increase in voter Registration and Turnout starting in 2016 compared to previous Elections in the notoriously low-turnout State of Tejas.

2.) Although without much more Political Electoral Forensics, we can't speak to the exact reason for the growth in total voting numbers, the outcome of voting in Federal elections is apparent.

A.) There has been a significant increase in Democratic Vote margins associated with these trends...

DEMs are now banking +5k Raw Vote Margins from this part of Bexar County....

HRC beat DJT by + 5.9k here in 2016....

BETO bear Cruz here by + 6.8k in the 2018 TX-SEN Election

B.) If we look at the CD-23 Race:

2012: + 4.4k DEM
2014: + 1.6k DEM
2016: + 3.9k DEM
2018: + 5.8k DEM

So, Gina Ortiz-Jones adds another +1.7k Votes into her bag in Bexar County...

Now let's look at the % support for Federal Candidates between '12 and '18 out here...



1.) Democrats hit record levels of support in 2018---

US-SEN: 67.9% DEM
US-HOUSE: 64.5% DEM

Republican numbers were 32% for US-PRES in '16 and only between 31-33% for (TX-SEN and CD-23) in '18....

Now let's look at the swings for selected races:



Quite a bit to digest with all of this, but again looking at the Bexar County CD-23 numbers, it's starting to look increasingly clear that at least in the 2018 US-SEN and CD-23 elections, Democrats performed quite well in a variety of different parts of the County.

[NOVA Green]

Now let's take a look at "Far South" San Antonio areas, basically most of the precincts in the district South of the 410 Loop.

It is a heavily Latino and predominately working-class part of the district with a population of roughly 35,000, albeit with a much much lower number of voters.

Here is a Precinct Map with some Census data thrown in:

So for example a 20/75 would indicate that it is 20% Anglo and 75% Latino.
The $ number indicates the Median Household income of the precinct.

Granted it is not 100% precise simply because Census tracts do not always cleanly align with precinct boundaries, and also MHI data isn't always able to be broken down by Census tracts.



Now let's take a look at these precincts vote share from 2012 to 2018 for US-REP CD-23 within the Bexar County portion of the district.

2012:  5.9%
2014:  5.4%
2016:  6.0%
2018:  6.0%

The vote share within these precincts has been remarkably consistent with the exception of the 2014 US-House race, which suggests that population growth / new voter registration is holding steady with the CD-23 portions of Bexar County at large.

Now let's look at the raw votes in these precincts between 2012 and 2018 for Federal Elections:



So, lot's to observe here... let's start with the Total Vote.

1.) The Total Vote appears remarkably low considering the number of people living within these precincts. Granted, likely over 30% of the Population is under the age of 18, roughly based upon the San Antonio South Bexar "neighborhood" Census data available. Roughly 75% of the population under the age of 18 are Latino, and these numbers drop to roughly 66% for the 18-44 age cohort, down to 57% for the 45-54, and 51% for the 55-74 group.

2.) These numbers would suggest that the Anglo proportion of voters is significantly higher than the Demographic data would indicate if we were to simply look at the overall Latino % of the population by precinct.

3.) If we look at the Total Votes between 2012 and 2018, we have roughly 1.5k more voters here in 2018 than in 2012.

One of the obvious questions would be how much of this increase in voters came from innate population growth of younger Latino voters coming of voting age, how much came from people moving into the area, where at least looking at the map, there's some pretty decent room for population growth, and easy access to freeways.

The 2018 US-SEN numbers were only (150) votes fewer than the 2016-US-PRES numbers, which would suggest either a significant increase in population between '16 > '18 and/or unusually high voter turnout numbers in a Midterm.

4.) The increase in Total Votes worked significantly to Democratic advantage in 2018, with Dems taking a record raw vote margin for US-SEN of 1,074 votes, with exceed Pete Gallego (D) margins of 1,036 in 2012.

Ortiz-Jones managed to squeeze a 790 vote margin out of these precincts in 2018, adding 352 votes to the DEM margins here in 2016, which exceeded HRCs 728 vote margin for US-PRES.

5.) That being said, Republicans also hit record raw vote numbers in these precincts in 2016 (~2.9k Votes) and 2018 (2.75k Votes), which suggests opportunities for Republicans in low election turnout years.

Now let's look at the % of Support for DEM and PUB Federal Candidates between 2012 and 2018.



Interesting:

1.) For an overwhelmingly Latino part of Bexar County, these are not impressive Democratic margins...

Democrats will typically take 53-55% of the vote, versus Republicans 42-43% in most elections.

2.) The outliers where DEMs performed better was 2018-SEN (57.5%) a record, and 2012-REP (56.2%).

The outlier where PUBs performed better was 2012-PRES (43.5% Romney).

3.) The DEM % Margins typically float in the 10-12% range, with 2012-House standing out, partially as a result of strong 3rd Party voting ( + 19.4% DEM), and 2018-SEN ( + 16.1% DEM), and on the flip side 2016-HOUSE ( + 6.6% DEM), with a high amount of 3rd Party Voting.

To what extent are these disappointing Democratic % numbers a result of low voter registration among a heavily Working-Class Mexican American population?

92% of the Population are US Citizens, and as I mentioned previously ~ 30% of the population is under voting age (75% Latino), but still it's pretty clear there are a large number of eligible voters that are not registered to vote.

Now to examine this a bit further, I thought it might be interesting to look again at the precinct map by Demographics to see what voter turnout numbers looked like 2018 and decrease of voter turnout between 2016 and 2018, to see if there appeared to be a significant drop-off of working-class Latinos between these two elections.

I skipped some of the extremely small precincts, with relatively small numbers of voters, but this should at least help convey the results.



What if anything does this tell us?

1.) Voter Turnout was highest in the relatively Middle-Class precincts of 4073 and 1089.

2.) It was also high in precinct 1123, where MHI data is difficult to obtain because of how it is split over multiple Census Tracts....

3.) Voter Turnout appears to have dropped the lowest between 2016 and 2018 in the most heavily Latino Precincts and Working-Class 1056 and 1124

4.) Voter Turnout appears to have dropped the most between '16 and '18 in Precincts with the highest % of Anglos.   (Precincts 4073, 1058, and 1063).

Although we don't know which voters in these precincts didn't show up between '16 and '18, we do have some Precinct Election Results available:

1.) Precinct 4073 (42% Anglo, 55 % Latino, MHI $ 63.9k /YR)

2012 PRES--- (42.8% Obama--- 54.9 % Romney)     + 12.1% REP
2016 PRES--- (47.2% HRC--- 47.2% Trump)             + 0 %      ( +12.1% DEM SWINGS '12 > '16)
2016 CD-23--- (40.8% DEM- 50.4% REP)                 + 9.6% REP
2018 TX-SEN-- (47.7% DEM- 50.8% REP)                 +3.1% REP   (+3.1 REP SWINGS PRES '16)
2018 CD-23--- (44.7% DEM- 51.3% REP)                  +6.6% REP   (+3.0% DEM SWINGS '16 > '18)

So it looks like drop-off in Turnout here likely impacted BETO and ORTIZ-JONES more than the PUBs.

2.) Precinct 1089 (17% Anglo, 77% Latino, MHI $ 74.9k/Yr)

2012 PRES: (54.9% DEM- 43.2% PUB)       +11.7% DEM
2016 PRES: (51.6% DEM- 42.7% PUB)       + 8.9% DEM     (+2.8% PUB SWINGS '12 > '16)
2016 CD-23: (45.9% DEM- 45.9% PUB)      + 0 %
2018 TX-SEN: (59.0% DEM- 40.6% PUB)    +18.4% DEM    (+9.5% DEM SWINGS '16 > '18)
2018 CD-23: (54.5% DEM- 42.0% PUB)      +12.5% DEM    (+12.5% DEM SWINGS '16>'18)

3.) Precinct 1056 (13% Anglo, 81% Latino, MHI $ 45.2k/Yr)

2012 PRES: (69.4% DEM- 29.0% PUB)       +40.4% DEM
2016 PRES: (63.6% DEM- 31.6% PUB)       + 32.0% DEM     (+8.4% PUB SWINGS '12 > '16)
2016 CD-23: (60.0% DEM- 32.7% PUB)      + 27.3% DEM
2018 TX-SEN: (67.6% DEM- 30.6% PUB)    +37.0% DEM    (+5.0% DEM SWINGS '16 > '18)
2018 CD-23: (64.5% DEM- 32.2% PUB)      +32.3% DEM    (+5.0% DEM SWINGS '16>'18)

4.) Precinct 1124 (8% Anglo, 83% Latino, MHI $ 45.2k/Yr

2012 PRES: (65.9% DEM- 32.4% PUB)       +33.5% DEM
2016 PRES: (61.2% DEM- 33.9% PUB)       + 27.3% DEM     (+6.2% PUB SWINGS '12 > '16)
2016 CD-23: (57.4% DEM- 32.8% PUB)      + 24.6% DEM
2018 TX-SEN: (65.0% DEM- 33.3% PUB)    +31.7% DEM    (+4.4% DEM SWINGS '16 > '18)
2018 CD-23: (62.8% DEM- 34.1% PUB)      +28.7% DEM    (+4.1% DEM SWINGS '16>'18)

So, I can keep rolling through the numbers, but appears that in many of the heavily Latino precincts in this part of Bexar, there was actually a swing towards Trump between 2012 and 2016 at the Presidential Level.

As I posted elsewhere quite a few years back, I suspect that part of the reason was there was a backlash against Obama (and by association against HRC in '16) because of the mass deportation policies that most directly impacted Working-Class Mexican-American populations.

What appears initially to be the case is that BETO was able to regain many of those Obama '12 Voters that sat out or voted 3rd Party for PRES in '16, as well as making inroads into Anglo Middle and Upper-Middle Class Texans.

What also appears to be the case, is that Ortiz-Jones was able to add enough support from Working-Class Latinos in Metro Bexar County, to be able to eat away at Will Hurd's margins, despite his relative popularity  among the Community, likely caused by distancing himself from some of the more unpopular policies of Trump....

I could roll through the rest of the precincts, but for now I think we're starting to see a clearer picture of what happened in Bexar County within CD-23 precincts, especially with only focusing on Federal Level Elections....

[NOVA Green]

This analysis increasingly convinced me that Beto probably would have won by the smallest of margins had Hispanics turned out like they did in 2012 and 2016. He clearly got or exceeded his benchmarks in all the predominantly white areas

Happy New Year!!!

So, although I agree with your General premise that BETO might likely have won had Working-Class Latino Turnout numbers resembled 2016 GE Turnout numbers in Tejas, I'm not convinced that 2012 Working-Class Latino GE Turnout numbers would have done the trick.

2012 was a relatively low turnout GE in Texas, and although working-class Latinos definitely turned out to vote in large numbers (Compared to historical percentages), it was quite likely a lower turnout event than the 2018 TX-SEN election.

That being said, what I suspect you are referring to with the Latino Turnout statement, is the support levels for Obama among Working-Class Latinos in Texas, who turned out in record numbers in 2012 and voted overwhelmingly Democratic for US-PRES-'12 (80% +).

As someone who lived in Houston between 2012 and 2016, where the vast majority of my Friends and Coworkers were working-class Latinos, something happened that caused a significant decrease of support for HRC and lower voter turnout in '16.

1.) The deportations of Non-Violent Foreign Mexican Nationals increased dramatically under Obama's 2nd Term.

What started as deportations of violent foreign nationals, turned into mandatory deportations of people convicted of relatively minor offenses, even something like a 1st time DUI or PCS-Marijuana, that would normally have been handled very differently by Harris County.

The forced deportations of Mexican Nationals, who had deep family roots and ties to American Citizens, including Spouses and Children, was a subject of conversation in hushed Spanish among those that I worked with in the large Factory / Office environment.

2.) Meanwhile there are growing tensions on the Factory Floor, and among Custodial Workers, where the Supervisors are Mexican-American and many of the rank and file are Central American and Caribbean.

3.) Trump's Nationalist message actually appealed to many working-class Latinos who saw his messaging as being targeted against the growing Central American population in Tejas, and not targeting working-class Latinos.

There are a variety of reasons for this, but one of the most obvious would be that Metro Houston after the Bush W. Recession, and slow economic recovery meant that Construction Jobs were being undermined by a growing number of Central American workers, willing to accept less than prevailing wages, and in the eyes of many working class Mexican-Americans was a direct threat to both job stability and wage security.

4.) Regardless, Working Class Latinos are the largest Democratic base in Texas, other than African-American voters.

5.) The biggest swings among Latinos in Texas actually occurred between '12 and '16, when Middle and Upper-Middle Class Latinos went from being a marginally Democratic voting block to a heavily Democratic Voting block.

Although this phenomenon was not observed by most (Since this community is scattered around Middle-Class precincts throughout Texas), you have a population that is most likely turnout to vote scattered throughout all of the Great State of Texas, swinging hard against Trump.

6.) I strongly suspect that the 2018 GE results in Texas indicate that these are where some of the biggest swings happened (Other than Educated Metro Anglo and Asian-American populations).

7.) BETO apparently winning back many of the Obama '12 Working Class Latinos was huge, in terms of both voter turnout and margins, but it appears these gains were uneven once we head down the Gulf Coast and into SouthTex Rural parts of the Rio Grande....

Obviously there is tons more data out there when it comes to Latino Voting in the 2018 GE in Texas, and my analysis of CD-23 is in no way intended to be a comprehensive discussion of TX-SEN-'18 results, especially regarding Latino Voting patterns....

Still,

One of the first items that concerned me on Election Night 11/6/18 was BETO's relatively small margins in Bexar County (That increased as the Night developed and further once Provisional Ballots were Counted):

2018-SEN (Beto 59.5% --- Cruz 39.6%)   +19.9% DEM  (+6.6% DEM SWING '16 PRES > '18 SEN)
2016-PRES (HRC 53.7%---Trump 40.4%) + 13.3% DEM (+8.7% DEM SWING '12 PRES to '16 PRES) 
2012- PRES (Obama 51.5%--- Romney 46.9%)  +4.6% DEM 

2018 SEN: RAW DEM MARGINS--- +109k DEM
2016 PRES: RAW DEM MARGINS--- + 79k DEM   (+30k DEM GAIN '16 > '18)
2012 PRES: RAW DEM MARGINS--- + 23k DEM   (+56k DEM GAIN '12 to '16)

At least in Bexar County CD-23, it appears that BETOs margins were massively inflated by Anglo Swing Voters, combined with high voter turnout among Middle-Class Latinos and Working-Class Latinos....

[NOVA Green]

Now to wrap up the remainder of Bexar County CD-23 precinct data, it's a bit of a smorgasbord, but still accounts for 16.5% of the CD-23 House Vote in 2018 within Bexar County.

It basically includes some fast growing heavily Anglo Upper Middle-Class Precincts in the NW, and some more heavily Latino and more Middle-Class precincts to the West and SW of San Antonio.

Let's look at the raw votes of these precincts.



So, several observations:

1.) The Total Vote has been increasing dramatically since '12 / '14, and the '18 numbers even surpassed '16 GE numbers.

There were +1.5k more votes in the 2018 TX-SEN race than there were in the 2016 PRES race, and (800) more votes for TX-CD-23 than in 2016.

2.) The Democratic candidate for TX-SEN received 2k more votes than HRC, and the candidate for CD-23 (500) more votes than HRC.

3.) The DEM candidate for CD-23 in '18 received 1.5k more votes, than the DEM in '16, while Hurd lost (40) votes.

4.) BETO actually won these precincts by (200) votes, contrasted against 1.2k DEM losses in the '12 CD-23, '16 PRES, and '18 CD-23 races, and ~ 2k DEM losses for '12 TX-SEN and '12 PRES, and 2.9k for '16 CD-23 REP.

Now let's look at this same data from a % of support for Federal Candidates 2012 to 2018:



So, what stands out here?

1.) We see Democratic support stuck at barely 40% in '12/'14 and even below that for CD-23 races in '14 and '16.

2.) We see Republican support ranging from 55-60% in 2012/2014, and even 2016 for CD-23. The only exception was 2012.

3.) Something changed at the 2016 PRES race, where the Republican Candidate only captured 50.6% of the Vote, and HRC garnered a record 43.6%.

4.) As mentioned before BETO actually won by 1% in the 2018 TX-SEN race, and Ortiz-Jones captured a record 45.2% for Rep from CD-23.

5.) If we look at this from the margins perspective, PUBs only won the '16 PRES and '18 CD-23 vote here by 7%, where typically they could bag 17% margins in a Presidential Election Year (2012) and the CD-23 election in (2016).

Let's look at a few selection margin swings to see how this worked out:



1.) Almost +10% DEM swings CD-23 REP 2016 to 2018.
2.) About +17-18% DEM swings TX-SEN '18 vs 2012 PRES and 2012 TX-SEN
3.) About +8% DEM swings TX SEN '18 vs '16 PRES
4.) Slight PUB swings CD-23 '18 vs '16 PRES

So, if these numbers look familiar they should, since it tends to mirror those in more Upper-Middle Class Anglo, and more Middle-Class suburban parts of Bexar County over the past 6 Years.

Now, the key question is since we have a fairly decent chunk of the Bexar County vote share here, can we narrow it down a bit more?

So, I'll roll through a few of the different areas and we'll do a quick peak of what's going on...

Let's start with a few of the NW Bexar County precincts not previously covered:


1.) Far NW (Precincts 3012 and 3126)

Here is a Census Tract map of the Anglo % of the population in these two precincts....

The non-shaded (White colored) areas on the map are likely nature preserves, or privately owned ranches up in the hill country part of NW S.A.

Best guess is these precincts are roughly 62% Anglo and 33% Latino, but much of the Latino population is under the age of 30, so Anglos represent a much higher share of the voting population.

MHI is $ 118k /Yr....

2012 PRES: (918) Total Votes    (24.7% DEM)--- (73.9% PUB)  + 49.2% PUB
2012 CD-23:                            (26.6% DEM)--- (69.2% PUB) + 42.6% PUB
2016 PRES: (1487 Total Votes) (33.3% DEM)--- (61.1% PUB)  + 27.8% PUB (+21.4% DEM SWING)
2016 CD-23:                           (27.2% DEM)--- (68.0% PUB)  + 40.8% PUB
2018 TX-SEN (1696 Votes)       (39.0% DEM)--- (60.7% PUB)  + 21.7% PUB
2018 CD-23:                           (33.9% DEM)--- (65.2% PUB)  + 31.3% PUB

Now let's take a brief look at some additional precincts in NW and Far Western Bexar County in CD-23:



These account for roughly 8.7% of the Bexar County portion of CD-23.

The Northern precincts are heavily Anglo Upper Middle-Class (53-38) with an MHI of $119k/Yr (At least the Census Block Group obviously overlapping with these precincts).



The Southern precincts still have a decent Anglo population, but are plurality Latino with a relatively large Black Population (9.2%), compared to many other parts of Metro San Antonio.

The MHI is $95.5k / Yr making this a solidly Upper Middle-Class part of Metro S.A.



Since, I'm trying to wrap up the Bexar County portion of CD-23, I'm not going to go as far into the Weeds and Seeds as I normally do, but instead consolidate the numbers from North and South Far West precincts....

Here are the raw votes from Far West Bexar:



So we see +3.3k votes added between the '12 and '16 Presidential election, and an additional (800) votes between the '18 TX-SEN and '16 PRES elections....  (Obviously a pretty fast growing part of Bexar).

DEM's flip the raw vote from + 900 Trump to + 35 BETO...

DEM's shave 1.1k vote margins off Hurd between '16 and '18 for CD-23.

Now let's look at the raw percentages....



We see a +24% Romney '12 area go to +10% for PRES in '16 and +22% for CD-23 turn around.

There was roughly a 10.4% swing towards BETO compared to HRC in '16, and +14.1% DEM swing from '16 to '18 for CD-23....

Apologies for the brief synopsis here, but would like to wrap up Bexar and then jump over to El Paso and maybe a few of the Rio Grande Counties, since there are other projects on the horizon...