Justice Kavanaugh Confirmation Hearing *DISCUSSION AND LIVE COMMENTARY*

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If BK isn't fit to be on the highest court, then shouldn't he also not be fit to be on the second highest court?

Agreed, he should be impeached and removed.

[Gass3268]

The Ramirez story is garbage.

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This proves nothing other than he didn't try to rape or stick his penis in any of these folks faces.

[BudgieForce]

While obviously I dont agree with their attitudes, I find it highly unlikely that this story will change anyone's mind. They'll say see was drunk and can't remember and point out how BK's character witnesses deny it.

Kavanaugh's poll numbers are bad and getting worse. While nobody in the senate will probably change their mind, eventually even Republicans will see him as a liability that they'd rather just dump.

At this point, there are no good outcomes left for the Republicans.  Some are worse than others.  In order of least to most bad:

1. Kavanaugh withdraws on his own.
2. Trump withdraws the nomination.
3. The Senate votes and rejects him.
4. The Senate confirms him.

And sadly, I still think number 4 is the most likely. I think 3 has shot up in possibility though now that there is cover for all the red state democrats to vote against him. Getting Collins and Murkowski on board will be much trickier but doable. But I genuinely cant see Kavanaugh or Trump withdrawing the nomination. Kavanugh wants the seat and Trump is too stubborn.

[J. J.]

The problem is that there IS credible evidence to date:

1.  A coherent story narrative that makes sense
2.  Notes from psychotherapy indicating that this has been a long-standing issue
3.  A non-deceptive polygraph supporting her account

That's not "nothing".  That's enough for your professional license to come under scrutiny if your are in any number of professions.  I do agree that "beyond a reasonable doubt" is not the standard for this.  On the other hand, it is NOT fair for Kavanaugh to have to prove he didn't do this beyond a reasonable doubt, either, and that IS the standard that people are holding Kavanaugh to (without being open about that fact).  Expecting Dr. Ford to testify at this point, given all that's transpired, is far from unreasonable.  

I agree that "beyond a reasonable doubt," is not the standard in this case for anyone.  I would be looking for it being a "more likely than not" standard.

I would disagree with the characterization.

1.  The "story" is not coherent, in that there are some large gaps. That is understandable, but it is also problematic.  It is incomplete. 

2.  There is evidence, the notes, that Ford assaulted in high school.  Those notes also give a different account of the assault, it was a material difference.  It could be a transcription error, but it is also  problematic.  An earlier transcribed account conflicts with Ford's current account. 

3.  This would show that Ford is not lying.  It does not show that Ford is accurate.

I think that it is probable was assaulted in high school, probably at a party.  However, it doesn't reach the "more than likely than not," standard, at this point that her account is accurate.

If someone would come forward and say "I remember that Crissy and Brett were at this party, at the house with swimming pool."  That would go along way to filling in those gaps.  If there was an audio tape of the counseling session which clearly recorded Ford saying that it was 2 males, and that 4 males were at the party, that would also work.  We're getting just the opposite.

[BudgieForce]

The Ramirez story is garbage.

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This proves nothing other than he didn't try to rape or stick his penis in any of these folks faces.

"We never heard about it so it didnt happen."

[BudgieForce]

Honestly, Deborah Ramierz's story should sound very plausible to anybody who has ever met a drunk frat boy.

[DrScholl]

The Ramirez story is garbage.

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That's pretty dumb logic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Farrow’s article mentions emails between Kavanaugh’s former classmates. I’d like to see some of these if possible.

I hope he destroys the emails because that's now a totally acceptable thing to do.

It always has been when confidential information may be present and one no longer holds a position as Secretary of State. This was not a controversy when it happened with Clinton. Get over the f***ing emails. Your side won the election because of them. Isn't that enough?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The Ramirez story is garbage.

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That's pretty dumb logic.

It's also dumb logic to believe an allegation without any hard evidence. But okay.

[7,052,770]

Honestly, Deborah Ramierz's story should sound very plausible to anybody who has ever met a drunk frat boy.

Oh yeah for sure. I just don't see it tipping anyone from pro-Kavanaugh to the anti- side.

[J. J.]

Honestly, Deborah Ramierz's story should sound very plausible to anybody who has ever met a drunk frat boy.

Yes, but how many drunk frat boys were there?

[Fuzzy Bear]

The problem is that there IS credible evidence to date:

1.  A coherent story narrative that makes sense
2.  Notes from psychotherapy indicating that this has been a long-standing issue
3.  A non-deceptive polygraph supporting her account

That's not "nothing".  That's enough for your professional license to come under scrutiny if your are in any number of professions.  I do agree that "beyond a reasonable doubt" is not the standard for this.  On the other hand, it is NOT fair for Kavanaugh to have to prove he didn't do this beyond a reasonable doubt, either, and that IS the standard that people are holding Kavanaugh to (without being open about that fact).  Expecting Dr. Ford to testify at this point, given all that's transpired, is far from unreasonable.  

I agree that "beyond a reasonable doubt," is not the standard in this case for anyone.  I would be looking for it being a "more likely than not" standard.

I would disagree with the characterization.

1.  The "story" is not coherent, in that there are some large gaps. That is understandable, but it is also problematic.  It is incomplete. 

2.  There is evidence, the notes, that Ford assaulted in high school.  Those notes also give a different account of the assault, it was a material difference.  It could be a transcription error, but it is also  problematic.  An earlier transcribed account conflicts with Ford's current account. 

3.  This would show that Ford is not lying.  It does not show that Ford is accurate.

I think that it is probable was assaulted in high school, probably at a party.  However, it doesn't reach the "more than likely than not," standard, at this point that her account is accurate.

If someone would come forward and say "I remember that Crissy and Brett were at this party, at the house with swimming pool."  That would go along way to filling in those gaps.  If there was an audio tape of the counseling session which clearly recorded Ford saying that it was 2 males, and that 4 males were at the party, that would also work.  We're getting just the opposite.

If Dr. Ford says, under oath, that Brett Kavanaugh held her down and groped her, that would be enough for me to vote against him as a Senator.  Period.  

[Sestak]

supposedly, per the article, emails exchanged between Yale ex-students about this should date back to July. If this can be verified it would likely back up the story.

[J. J.]

If Dr. Ford says, under oath, that Brett Kavanaugh held her down and groped her, that would be enough for me to vote against him as a Senator.  Period.  

I would need something more that that. 

[SCNCmod]

So we have:

Dr Ford's allegation.

Remirez (who came forward to say Kav's best friend Mark Judge is lying regarding his account and characterization of the their High School partying).

Who/ what is the 3rd accusation or person to come forward?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Matt Walsh ‏ Verified account @MattWalshBlog Follow Follow @MattWalshBlog More Matt Walsh Retweeted Jake Tapper Dear Lord. This is insane. She says she was wasted, she was playing a drinking game, she doesn't remember much about that night, and she wasn't even sure until this week whether Brett Kavanaugh was involved. Three other people alleged to be involved denied it.

[Sestak]

So we have:

Dr Ford's allegation.

Remirez (who came forward to say Kav's best friend Mark Judge is lying regarding his account and characterization of the their High School partying).

Who/ what is the 3rd accusation or person to come forward?

I don't trust Avenatti enough to put any stock in this third accuser yet.

[RI]

At least six supposed eyewitnesses have been named between Ford and Ramirez, and zero of them have supported the charges. All have vehemently denied.

[Sestak]

At least six supposed eyewitnesses have been named between Ford and Ramirez, and zero of them have supported the charges. All have vehemently denied.

Lol.

If you were an eyewitness to either of these and did nothing to stop it, of course you'd deny.

And in this case several people seem to remember hearing about the incident.

[J. J.]

So we have:

Dr Ford's allegation.

Remirez (who came forward to say Kav's best friend Mark Judge is lying regarding his account and characterization of the their High School partying).

Who/ what is the 3rd accusation or person to come forward?

Well, the description was not of the incident Ford alleges.  The claim is that it was a gang rape; Ford does not claim that. 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/frankrichny/status/1044028302002872320

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OMG BARTY

[DrScholl]

At least six supposed eyewitnesses have been named between Ford and Ramirez, and zero of them have supported the charges. All have vehemently denied.

There is no need to repeat yourself. Just stop and accept that Jesus Christ Kavanaugh is finished.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/frankrichny/status/1044028302002872320

Well no matter what happens, at the very least he should never coach again...

[Yank2133]

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Lmao.

Typical Irish Catholic, can't hold his liquor.