FL-PPP (D): Nelson +1

[MT Treasurer]

46% Bill Nelson (D, inc.)
45% Rick Scott (R)

Trump approval: 46/49 (-3)

http://files.constantcontact.com/a97ff0ce601/d420c047-65fd-49bd-9631-f7d774d9c41d.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

Gillum leads by more than Nelson in the same poll? Bill is in trouble.

Opposite, Gillum is stronger than believed. Nelson is doing the same hes been doing in every other poll. Its just that Gillum is stronger and facing a weaker challenger, where Nelson is not. Anyway, I expect the numbers to rise when Bill starts airing ads, which starts today, and its not good for Scott if hes so far spent 50$ million and, as another poster showed, not gained anything.
PPP polls
      April 10-11/18.   Nelson 50.  Scott 44
      June 18-19/18.    Nelson 48 Scott 46
      Aug 29-30/18.     Nelson 46 Scott 45

If you’re trusting these numbers, the race went from Nelson +6 in April to Nelson +1 now, so I don’t see how Scott hasn’t gained anything? And it’s not as if PPP is the only polling form polling this race, other polls have shown much better numbers for Scott.

I’m not saying this race isn’t a Tossup, but all three polls you cited were commissioned by Democratic groups, so I think you’re being a little selective here. It’s also not really accurate that there haven’t been any pro-Nelson/anti-Scott ads so far.