2020 Senate Elections

[Viniera Gorilla]

Safe D: OR, IL, NJ, DE, MA, RI

Likely D: MN, VA, NH

Lean D: MI, CO (D+1)

Toss-Up: AZ, ME (if Collins retires)

Lean R: NC, GA, IA, MT (if Bullock runs)

Likely R: TX, KY, AK, ME, MT, AL (if Republicans nominate a Roy Moore again)

Safe R: ID, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, WV, SC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D ME and CO
Competitive KY, KS, AL, NC, IA, and GA
Tilt R MT, TX and AK

Dems can get Senate back with IA, NC, AZ, KY or KS or GA

[lfromnj]

Tilt D ME and CO
Competitive KY, KS, AL, NC, IA, and GA
Tilt R MT, TX and AK

Dems can get Senate back with IA, NC, AZ, KY or KS or GA

lol KY and AL and probably KS being competetive
Lmao.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes

[adrac]

Lean R: GA, AK, MT, IA, AL (R+1), TX
Tossup: ME, AZ, NC
Lean D: NH, CO (D+1), MI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Roberts almost lost last time.

[IceSpear]

Can we please stop trying to make KS-Sen a thing? Just because Dems can win gubernatorial elections here does not translate at all to the Senate level

Normally I'd agree, but remember that Pat Roberts was such a garbage candidate that he needed the national GOP and a red wave to bail him out. The fact that a Republican incumbent winning in Kansas by 10 points during a red wave was seen as an "unexpectedly large margin" says a lot. And this was even before the suburban revolt against Trump.

Also, it wasn't just the Governor's race. Look at Sharice Davids destroying Kevin Yoder. I think there is a real Democratic trend beginning to develop in Kansas thanks to the KC suburbs. Will it be enough in 2020? Probably not, but I think it's worth keeping an eye on, especially against an extremely weak Republican incumbent.

[lfromnj]

Can we please stop trying to make KS-Sen a thing? Just because Dems can win gubernatorial elections here does not translate at all to the Senate level

Normally I'd agree, but remember that Pat Roberts was such a garbage candidate that he needed the national GOP and a red wave to bail him out. The fact that a Republican incumbent winning in Kansas by 10 points during a red wave was seen as an "unexpectedly large margin" says a lot. And this was even before the suburban revolt against Trump.

Also, it wasn't just the Governor's race. Look at Sharice Davids destroying Kevin Yoder. I think there is a real Democratic trend beginning to develop in Kansas thanks to the KC suburbs. Will it be enough in 2020? Probably not, but I think it's worth keeping an eye on, especially against an extremely weak Republican incumbent.

yeah Kansas is trending democrat thx to Johnson county.
Its been republican for 100 years but it is a tossup 2020.

[lfromnj]

Unless Dems are consistently winning Johnson, Shawnee and Lyon counties by double digits and eking out wins in Sedgwick, Kansas is Safe R. I don’t think that is replicable in any non-gubernatorial race barring a Roy Moore scenario

yeah its not competetive 2020 but I can see it in the mid 30's.

[libertpaulian]

I hate to say it, but if you Dems want to take out R incumbents in states like Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina, you're going to need either a Beto-esque candidate or a charming woman with a relatable life story.

[IceSpear]

Unless Dems are consistently winning Johnson, Shawnee and Lyon counties by double digits and eking out wins in Sedgwick, Kansas is Safe R. I don’t think that is replicable in any non-gubernatorial race barring a Roy Moore scenario

Well, speaking of Roy Moore, at the very least Dems are more likely to win KS than AL.

What do you think the results would've been if the 2014 Senate race took place in 2018? Assuming all else is identical.

[Skill and Chance]

A lot is riding on the late results in Arizona here.  With a Sinema win, Dems will likely flip the senate in 2020 if they win the PV by enough to flip the White House.  With a McSally win, the Republican majority is basically safe unless the economy crashes. 

Based on what happened to McCaskill and Donnelly, who won due to uniquely bad opponents in 2012, and his state being even more of a Trump blowout, Jones has already lost unless his opponent is Moore again.  So, with Sinema, Democrats would need +3 to flip if they win the White House, and +4 if they don't (but that's basically out of the question unless Trump is somehow losing the PV by 5+ and still wins by an EV or 2).  3 of CO/ME/AZ/NC/GA is very doable and IA and TX aren't safe if Trump is losing (think trade war).  I think Trump keeps things competitive enough in Maine that Collins will still pull a Manchin/Tester unless the economy crashes.  However, CO and the AZ Special will almost be Lean D in a Trump loss if Sinema prevails in the other AZ seat.  So they would just need one of ME/GA/NC to control the federal government after a Trump loss.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems path to Majority
Win CO and ME and win NC, AZ  and ME and win 2/3 from AK, AL, GA, IA, KS, KY, MSb, or MT

[Tekken_Guy]

Alabama: Safe R (If Donnelly and McCaskill can’t win then Jones definitely won’t)
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Safe R
Colorado: Likely D, Safe D if Hickenlooper is the nominee
Delaware: Safe D
Georgia: Lean R if Abrams runs, Likely if she doesn’t
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Likely R if Roberts retires, Safe R if he doesn’t
Kentucky: Likely R
Louisiana: Safe R
Maine: Tilt D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Safe D
Mississippi: Safe R
Montana: Lean R against Bullock or Schweitzer; otherwise Likely R
Nebraska: Safe R
New Hampshire: Likely D
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
North Carolina: Tossup
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R; Lean if Beto is the challenger or on the presidential ticket
Virginia: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R
Wyoming: Safe R

If Nelson and Sinema win the Senate likely flips with the presidency. If Scott and McSally win then the GOP will probably keep the senate. If it’s a split I lean towards the GOP narrowly hanging on.

[lfromnj]

Alabama: Safe R (If Donnelly and McCaskill can’t win then Jones definitely won’t)
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Safe R
Colorado: Likely D, Safe D if Hickenlooper is the nominee
Delaware: Safe D
Georgia: Lean R if Abrams runs, Likely if she doesn’t
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Likely R if Roberts retires, Safe R if he doesn’t
Kentucky: Likely R
Louisiana: Safe R
Maine: Tilt D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Safe D
Mississippi: Safe R
Montana: Lean R against Bullock or Schweitzer; otherwise Likely R
Nebraska: Safe R
New Hampshire: Likely D
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
North Carolina: Tossup
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R; Lean if Beto is the challenger or on the presidential ticket
Virginia: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R
Wyoming: Safe R

If Nelson and Sinema win the Senate likely flips with the presidency. If Scott and McSally win then the GOP will probably keep the senate. If it’s a split I lean towards the GOP narrowly hanging on.

Id keep Ks at likely R for roberts if he stays. I think for now Texas should be kept at Lean R although closer to Likely. NC looks like Lean R to me atm.
Maine - Lean R
SC- Likely R due to general D trends of the state and I see it being within single digits in 2020.

[ElectionsGuy]

A few notes

AL - I'm basically ready to move this to Safe R as soon as we know Roy Moore won't run again.

AK - It's Alaska

CO - Trends here are very much against Republicans, but not counting Gardner out this early. Right now I think Democrats have a better chance of winning this seat than Republicans do of retaining it.

GA - Trends are against Republicans in this state, but Democrats still struggle to get a majority of the vote here. I expect every Georgia race to be competitive from now on, it's just a matter of time before this state turns into a pure toss-up.

IA - I originally thought of this race as Lean R but Ernst is a strong candidate and will likely perform better than Trump. It will be hard to unseat her in this state that is becoming increasingly more difficult for Democrats to win.

KS - This is fool's gold, Roberts will likely retire.

KY - Above ^^^^^^

ME - This race has the most uncertainty out of any in 2020, you could call it '2020's West Virginia'. The outcome of this race will heavily depend on whether Collins retires, survives a primary challenge, or wins the primary. If one thing is certain, if she does run, this will be her hardest re-election she's ever faced.

MI/MN - Both of these incumbents start out with the advantage, but Trump at the top of the ticket will bring them down into competitive territory. We'll see about Republican recruits in these races.

MT - Dems have a strong bench, but Daines is heavily favored even if Bullock runs.

NC - Tillis should have an advantage, but there are some trends in this state Republicans should be worried about, and the 2020 presidential race should be very close. I expect it to be very close, slight advantage for Tillis right now.

SC - Graham on paper should be kinda vulnerable, but Dems have not proven to be competitive in this state yet at the federal level.

TX - Democrats have proven themselves to make gains in the vote share here, and they have made Texas more competitive in the past few years, but Beto was an exceptional candidate and Cruz exceptionally disliked. This state is now where Georgia used to be, where I think they will be stuck at getting 44-46% of the vote. I don't expect Cornyn to be seriously endangered.

VA - Only if Warner retires or there is something exceptional happening here, Virginia is all but safe for Democrats. This state looks pretty close to gone for Republicans at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Doug Jones is very well liked in AL. If someone like McCaskill, who had favorability that was underwater a lot, only loses by 6 in MO (Trump +20... not too far off from AL), I don't see how it's hard for him to win again. It won't be *easy*, but I think it's definitely a race.

[libertpaulian]

Doug Jones is very well liked in AL. If someone like McCaskill, who had favorability that was underwater a lot, only loses by 6 in MO (Trump +20... not too far off from AL), I don't see how it's hard for him to win again. It won't be *easy*, but I think it's definitely a race.

Donnelly had ABOVE-water favorables here in Indiana and lost by almost as much as McCaskill did.

[TML]

Doug Jones is very well liked in AL. If someone like McCaskill, who had favorability that was underwater a lot, only loses by 6 in MO (Trump +20... not too far off from AL), I don't see how it's hard for him to win again. It won't be *easy*, but I think it's definitely a race.

Donnelly had ABOVE-water favorables here in Indiana and lost by almost as much as McCaskill did.

Donnelly’s net approval rating was only +1, while Jones stands at +13. In this year’s Senate elections, all sitting Senators who ran with net approval ratings of +5 or higher won their races.

So while it is probably true that Jones isn’t favored, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s doomed, unless his net approval rating slides considerably.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joni Ernst can be defeated

[Mr. Illini]

Safe D: OR, IL, NJ, DE, MA, RI

Likely D: MN, VA, NH

Lean D: MI, CO

Toss-Up: AZ, NC, GA

Lean R: IA, ME

Likely R: TX, KY, AK, MT, AL

Safe R: ID, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, LA, MS, TN, WV, SC

[henster]

Hopefully Vilsack steps up in IA he'd the Bredesen of the cycle and would actually have a chance given the states lean.

[Gass3268]

Hopefully Vilsack steps up in IA he'd the Bredesen of the cycle and would actually have a chance given the states lean.

AG Tom Miller would be another good get.

[lfromnj]

Anybody think jd Scholden has a chance for Iowa senate? He did run a strongoing campaign.

[Skill and Chance]

A few notes

AL - I'm basically ready to move this to Safe R as soon as we know Roy Moore won't run again.

AK - It's Alaska

CO - Trends here are very much against Republicans, but not counting Gardner out this early. Right now I think Democrats have a better chance of winning this seat than Republicans do of retaining it.

GA - Trends are against Republicans in this state, but Democrats still struggle to get a majority of the vote here. I expect every Georgia race to be competitive from now on, it's just a matter of time before this state turns into a pure toss-up.

IA - I originally thought of this race as Lean R but Ernst is a strong candidate and will likely perform better than Trump. It will be hard to unseat her in this state that is becoming increasingly more difficult for Democrats to win.

KS - This is fool's gold, Roberts will likely retire.

KY - Above ^^^^^^

ME - This race has the most uncertainty out of any in 2020, you could call it '2020's West Virginia'. The outcome of this race will heavily depend on whether Collins retires, survives a primary challenge, or wins the primary. If one thing is certain, if she does run, this will be her hardest re-election she's ever faced.

MI/MN - Both of these incumbents start out with the advantage, but Trump at the top of the ticket will bring them down into competitive territory. We'll see about Republican recruits in these races.

MT - Dems have a strong bench, but Daines is heavily favored even if Bullock runs.

NC - Tillis should have an advantage, but there are some trends in this state Republicans should be worried about, and the 2020 presidential race should be very close. I expect it to be very close, slight advantage for Tillis right now.

SC - Graham on paper should be kinda vulnerable, but Dems have not proven to be competitive in this state yet at the federal level.

TX - Democrats have proven themselves to make gains in the vote share here, and they have made Texas more competitive in the past few years, but Beto was an exceptional candidate and Cruz exceptionally disliked. This state is now where Georgia used to be, where I think they will be stuck at getting 44-46% of the vote. I don't expect Cornyn to be seriously endangered.


VA - Only if Warner retires or there is something exceptional happening here, Virginia is all but safe for Democrats. This state looks pretty close to gone for Republicans at this point.

The bolded are all worth Dems trying seriously in.  They probably only fall if there is significant economic deterioration due to a trade war and Trump has already lost the presidential race, but many of these states also have redistricting implications (e.g. getting over 1/3rd in a legislative chamber in KS basically ensures a 2/2 map in the 2020's, flipping the lower house of the TX legislature is achievable in a significant statewide PV loss and is probably worth 6 US House seats, and flipping the lower House in IA would protect the independent redistricting commission which is only established by a normal law that a governing trifecta could repeal).  I would also add SD to this list if Billie Sutton can be recruited.  Trump's margins will falter in farming areas if the trade situation deteriorates.