2012President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) ✓
My go-to Romney 2012 scenario: the global economy crashes again in 2011 as a contagion effect from a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. The geopolitical situation deteriorates in tandem. Romney strikes the right balance between the Tea Party and the neocons and wins.
2016President Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Vice President Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Fmr. President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓
Things go from bad to worse when the US, drawn deeper into Syria, comes into conflict with Iran. By 2016, the war has been going on for a year with no end in sight and another oil shock has once again crashed the global economy. Romney barely overcomes a Tea Party primary challenge. There's a dramatic primary fight between Clinton, Sanders, and Obama, but Obama comes out on top with establishment support. 2016 is essentially a bleak repeat of 2008 with a lot more skepticism toward Obama this time around.