New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[free my dawg]

I decided to do a downballot primary forecast because I felt like going off again:

* NH-Gov: State Senator Dan Feltes is going up against Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky. While Volinsky has the backing of the Bernieverse, Feltes is a strong progressive in his own right, and has secured a lot of endorsements from across the political spectrum. Due to Volinsky running a more competitive race, polling, and Feltes's poor performance in the debate, I'd rate this a Toss-up.

* EC-2: The establishment has picked Cinde Warmington. Most notably, Carol Shea-Porter decided to cross over after previously supporting Surdukowski. I'm not sure if she's personally as progressive as Soldati or Thompson (whose stance on voting rights I actually oppose because it would dismantle the only thing keeping the GOP from dismantling EDR), but she's progressive enough. I were in NH-2, I would at least vote for her to beat Surdukowski (R-NH).

Speaking of which, Jay Surdukowski (R-Concord) has the Union Leader's endorsement. He also has the endorsement of SD-9 Republican candidate Denise Ricciardi. Essentially, when one candidate's being backed by a host of Republicans, you should know their priorities. I'd say this toss-up between Warmington and Surdukowski. While she has the momentum, I'm still wary that Surdukowski has the moderate lane to himself, especially after CD-4. Gun to my head it goes Warmington-Surdukowski-Soldati-Plunkett-Thompson-Shea, considering most of the buzz is going to Warmington, but it could go either way.

* EC-3: As I said, the Republican primary Leans Crochetiere. He has a broad backing from across the state. Stevens has the backing of Ruth Griffin, this seat's former 20-year occupant and a local institution in the party. I can safely forecast the Democratic primary as Safe Messmer, due to her strength and her widespread backing.

* EC-4: I decided to change the rating from Toss-up to Lean R, after learning a bit more about MacKenzie's NH-1 run. I really don't think he's the candidate to beat Gatsas. Interestingly enough, former Manchester alderman Jerome Duval is starting to gain some traction in some circles. I still think the primary is Likely MacKenzie, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Duval pull off an upset.

* EC-5:: After mulling it over, I think the primary Leans Wheeler. Former Majority Leader Bob Clegg has a lot of support from the old guard (Bradley, the Scammans, who are prominent GOP activists) while Wheeler has a lot of support from the establishment (Sununu, Ayotte). Wheeler's backers are simply more relevant.

* SD-1: Leans Hennessey. As I said, Starr has a poor campaign apparatus, and Hennessey happens to be an ally of the governor. Of course, Starr has the incumbency, but that can only get you so far.

* SD-5: Both candidates are actually pretty strong progressives. Beatriz Pastor has the backing of incumbent Martha Hennessey and NHDP Vice Chair Martha Fuller Clark, while Suzanne Prentiss has the backing of the Lebanon establishment. I don't know much about the district, but I do know that Lebanon isn't going to cut it. My gut says it's a Toss-up.

* SD-15: Former NH-2 Congressman Paul Hodes is favored, but the race won't be easy. He has former Concord state representative Candace Bouchard and lawyer/disability rights lobbyist Becky Whitley. Unlike NH-21, Concord makes up 80% of the district. Bouchard has strong connections in Concord, while Whitley is strong in the other 20% of Hopkinton. I still think this is Leans Hodes due to his name recognition, but it's more competitive than you would think.

* SD-18: I don't know enough to forecast it. They'll both lose overwhelmingly to Soucy.

* SD-21: I'd rate this primary Likely McEachern. While Perkins Kwoka is a known commodity in Portsmouth, she actually lost in 2019's City Council election while McEachern was one of the top vote-getters. He actually almost got as many votes as long-time fixture Jim Splaine and Mayor Rick Beckstead. It's definitely a bold rating at Likely, but I've taken his electoral performance, his strength in the 60% of the district outside Portsmouth, and his ability to complete with RPK into account.

* SD-23: The two candidates are former state senator Bill Gannon and pastor Allen Cook. I've seen a lot more Gannon presence here, along with him formerly representing the seat.

* SD-24: There's a primary between Trump-leaning former state representative Lou Gargiulo and Hampton selectwoman Regina Barnes. Both are arch-conservatives, but Gargiulo has managed to attract a lot more buzz, gettting Sununu's endorsement. Likely Gargiulo

* Hillsborough-36: Former NH House Speaker and our state's ur-Trump Bill O'Brien is making a comeback in Nashua, after retiring and moving there from Mont Vernon. I'd rate the primary as Likely O'Brien, but the general itself is Safe Democratic. I could see the seat flipping in the right year, but the headwinds in 2020 are too strong and I definitely don't think O'Brien is the candidate to do it.

* Rockingham-25: 21-year incumbent and Dean of the State House Laura Pantelakos has a strong, credible primary challenge from special education teacher Robin Vogt. Pantelakos has received a lot of flack for her stances on criminal justice reform and missing votes (the latter of which provoked her primary challenge). Obviously, she has a strong connection to the seat, but considering the amount of buzz Vogt has received from progressive groups, I think there's a solid chance of an upset.

[Vosem]

Never forget that Paul Hodes endorsed Marianne Williamson

[free my dawg]

NH-Gov debate recap:

For some info, I'm an undecided primary voter. I decided to watch the debate - not just to provide a recap on my tiny part of the world on some Internet forum, but to help me make a decision. As I've said, Feltes and Volinsky are both very similar politically, but different stylistically. Feltes takes Warren's approach of tacking close to the establishment and a more technocratic approach, while Volinsky is closely tied to the Bernie wing.

I've waffled between the two of them. Today, I came to a decision.

* Education: Largely in agreement. Feltes seems to be running in the Warren mold, stressing his plans, while Volinsky attacked Sununu/Trump for their failures.

* Mask mandate: Again, agreement, with attacks on Trump and Sununu. Volinsky stresses a more modeling-based approach over it, while Feltes took time to attack Sununu for holding a rally. Feltes had a bit of a Rubio moment here, but Volinsky came off here as paternalistic.

* Returning to school: Feltes talked about his plan to mandate masks. Volinsky made his plan, stressed his attempted advocacy that Sununu rejected.

* Lockdowns: Volinsky dismissed the question to some degree, but he said he would cooperate with the lockdown. Feltes dodged the question, pivoting to attack Sununu and Trump more.

* The DEEEEEEEEEBT: Feltes pivots to attack Sununu about using CARES Act money for a study on budget cuts, rather than using the stim to pay down the deficit. Volinsky stressed support for a state income tax, citing stress on property tax.

* BLM demonstrations vs. Trump rallies - why is one dangerous while the other is fine? - Everyone was following proper procedure with BLM, while nobody was at Trump's. Feltes, once again, reverted to his Rubio line of comparing Trump's rally to a rock concert and Sununu's "Trump guy through and through" response.

* How has COVID affected your life: Feltes has had to take more responsibilities with children to juggle. young daughter stayed home due to precautions. Volinsky couldn't hold his newborn grandson, and lost a friend to the virus.

* Gordon MacDonald: Both agree on MacDonald, with both the candidates trading blows over whether they could have done more to stop Sununu's other Supreme Court nominees. Volinsky knocked this out of the park - he displayed bipartisan credentials, managed to effectively counter Feltes's attacks, and flustered him and get him off his talking points. His response to the defense was to go full Rubio.

* Columbus Day: Feltes dodged and pivoted to making Election Day a holiday. Volinsky endorsed the movement to rename it Indigenous People's Day. I don't think most people outside of the wokesphere are paying attention to the IPD movement.

* I'm gonna skip the rest of these, as there's a lot of fluff and "how have you handled COVID" questions. There isn't much difference here.

* How to do better battling bigotry: Feltes pivoted to attacking Sununu and talking about legal aid. Volinsky stressed his more diverse staff, his record of taking diversity into account, and his record as a lawyer. Feltes managed to counter this effectively.

* Chokehold law - Volinsky said that the chokehold "ban" wasn't a ban, because it left too many loopholes for police to abuse. Doesn't quite say "defund the police" but endorses shifting funds away. Feltes pivoted away from it. I didn't really get much of what he was saying - his intro was empty and his segue was horrible. Overall, filled with empty platitudes and talking points.

* Death penalty and race - The question was about whether or not race played a role in the sentencing of Michael Addison, a black man who killed a cop in 2004. Another dodge from Feltes, with him stressing his experience repealing the death penalty. Volinsky stressed his experience arguing against the death penalty as a lawyer, and outright said yes. Volinsky and Feltes both said "let the Council decide".

* Taxes - Feltes does not support an income or sales tax. Volinsky proposed a tweak to the statewide property tax, while Feltes proposed loopholes. Overall, both of them seem super weak on this. Feltes dodged and pivoted to an attack on Volinsky being open to an income tax. Volinsky's defense seemed really weak here. He keeps saying he has a plan but doesn't divulge into the specifics.

* Opioid crisis - Volinsky shifted to property taxes on cities, while Feltes talked about advancing treatment options, funding options, and attacking Sununu.

* Guns - Volinsky focused on keeping guns out of school, with him actually promoting Feltes. Volinsky believes in mandatory gun licensing and training, and gave a nuanced response about how he would prevent assault weapons, but an AWB would be unenforceable due to the interstate commerce clause. Feltes is the opposite, backing an AWB but not gun license laws.

* Healthcare - Feltes stressed his experience as a legal aid lawyer and reforms in the Senate. Really said nothing, pivoting to "dynasty man bad". Volinsky stressed increasing funding, and starting a statewide public option to move towards Medicare for All.

* How are you the leader - Feltes went back to "working people and working families", attacking Volinsky for his past as a corporate lawyer. Volinsky talked about his progressive stances, attacking Feltes for flip-flopping on a pipeline project and PAC money.

* Opening/closing statements - Feltes went cooperating. Volinsky's closing statement was incredibly strong - called himself the "persistent resistance" to Sununu in the Council who managed to even sway Republicans.

OVERALL: Tonight, Dan Feltes lost me. Andru Volinsky is the right candidate for Governor. Feltes talks a big game about plans, but when he talked, he spouted nothing but talking points. His response to the MacDonald question was indistinguishable from Rubio's "let's dispel with this fiction" moment, and you could hear a lot of similar points and lines throughout. To put it as plainly as I can, Dan Feltes went Full Rubio.

Overall, Volinsky was more substantive on the issues and more authentic. I'll be voting for him with a clear mind and a full heart.

[Canis]

High quality post!

[Meatball Ron]

Never forget that Paul Hodes endorsed Marianne Williamson

This is still insane to me. What was he thinking?

Overall, Volinsky was more substantive on the issues and more authentic. I'll be voting for him with a clear mind and a full heart.

Super interesting, thanks for this post! Do you think there is any difference between their ability to beat Sununu?

[free my dawg]

Overall, Volinsky was more substantive on the issues and more authentic. I'll be voting for him with a clear mind and a full heart.

Super interesting, thanks for this post! Do you think there is any difference between their ability to beat Sununu?

Not particularly. If anything, I think Volinsky has a better chance due to not being a hodgepodge of NHDP talking points, but I don't think they're better candidates than someone like a Molly Kelly.

[free my dawg]

I voted today. Things in my small town were good and safe.

* Voted for Volinsky for Governor. I have some faith Volinsky can pull out an upset, but Feltes makes it Safe R for reasons I've explained already. I'm not opposed to the guy - I think he's just an awful candidate stylistically.

* Voted Messmer in EC-3. I like Lovejoy, but Messmer is just a straight-up better candidate (both in practice and in ideology).

* Voted for Paul Krautmann, mainly as a limp-wristed attempt to remind Shaheen who she's supposed to represent. Alciere is much more of a libertarian than a Democrat. Messner and Bolduc are both irredeemably awful, so I feel like I can safely protest vote for someone else. I'm not thrilled over her backing of Trump's defense bills and Wall Street deregulation, and especially her confirmation of Haspel.

* Also backed Pappas, mainly because he's been progressive enough for our district and he was the only option.

[Nyvin]

I voted - Volinsky, Shaheen, Pappas, McKenzie.   State Leg. races other than Exec Council only had 1 choice.

Turnout in my town seems pretty huge for a primary.

* Also backed Pappas, mainly because he's been progressive enough for our state.

Kinda funny how NH-1 consistently has the more progressive Rep while NH-2 the more establishment one,  I would've guessed it'd be the other way around.

[free my dawg]

As long as Surdukowski (R-NH) loses, it's a good day.

[free my dawg]

Hour 1:

* I'm calling NH-1 GOP for Mowers.

* Things look pretty grim for McEachern. He only squeaked out a 12-point win in his home ward, while Perkins Kwoka dominated hers. Turnout was huge in her ward too, and RPK took Portsmouth by about 55-45. I'm not going to call it quite yet, but it's looking like my original gut feeling was right.

* Feltes and Volinsky, predictably, looks closer than Marchand/Kelly, but heavily leaning Feltes. I'd still rather be him at this point, considering he's running at 61% in Concord, but there's still time.

* EC-2 is still slow. Soldati is running up the score in Rochester and Dover, while Warmington is winning Concord. The good news is that Surdukowski is handily in 3rd place in Concord and absolutely underwater in Strafford. It's early, but we'll see.

* SD-15 is a horse race between all three candidates. I think Hodes is pretty likely to lose - most of Concord is in, while Becky Whitley's hometown of Hopkinton is out.

* I'm calling SD-23 for Gannon - he's running up the score at this point in Epping and everywhere else around the district.

[free my dawg]

Yeah, I've seen enough. Rebecca Perkins-Kwoka will be the SD-21 nominee - she seems to be running it up outside Portsmouth too.

Newmarket was one of the towns McEachern needed to win. He lost it by almost 50. This was apparently.

Aside from that, Hour 2 hasn't had much progress.

* In Rockingham-25, Laura Pantelakos fended off her primary challenger, 52-48. Actually pretty sad about this, tbh.

* EC-2 is still slow. I can pretty safely say that Democrats will hold - Surdukowski apparently really burned his bridges with the party. I was afraid that an Auchincloss-type situation would develop here but apparently people already know that he's a GOP trojan horse. Soldati's doing really well, actually, but the big cities of Rochester/Somersworth/Dover are in and Warmington is keeping it competitive in Thompson's base.

* Prentiss is winning in SD-5 so far. I'd rather wait and see more results, but Prentiss is doing realy well.

* For Republicans, Stevens is winning EC-3 off the back of Portsmouth. I'd like to see more of the Hampton roll in, but she's definitely favored.

[Virginiá]

Don't know if it's too soon or if you posted further back, but with some primary results in (so far), what do you think Dem prospects look like this year? Grow majorities? Super-majority possible? Losses?

[free my dawg]

Don't know if it's too soon or if you posted further back, but with some primary results in (so far), what do you think Dem prospects look like this year? Grow majorities? Super-majority possible? Losses?

Supermajority is definitely in the cards for the Senate. Democrats need 2 of NH-1, NH-2, and NH-8. It's tough, but it's doable.

For the House, less so - mainly because there's a provision in our constitution guaranteeing each town within the SD their own representation.

I definitely think they could grow majorities, but considering how prone we are to waves, I'm not sure if they'd last. I do think we'll hold in 2020, though.

[free my dawg]

Hour 3:

* Whole Lotta Tumbleweeds out of EC-2 and SD-15. Even with another 10% of the vote in, nothing has moved in SD-15 and not much has moved in EC-2.

* Messmer, as predicted, won her EC-3 primary. While this is the most Republican district, Messmer is a very strong candidate with deep ties to the Seacoast.

* MacKenzie looks good so far in EC-4, and is running up the score outside the district. Duval won Manchester proper, but MacKenzie loos good everyrwhere else.

* Winchester selectwoman Natalie Quevedo won her primary challenge against 18-man incumbent Henry "Mr. Pickle" Parkhurst. She's running on climate change, and seems very good on the issues.

* Erin Hennessey will win the SD-1 Republican primary. I apparently missed the part where Starr lost his hometown of Franconia 75-25. Guy's toast.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

* Winchester selectwoman Natalie Quevedo won her primary challenge against 18-man incumbent Henry "Mr. Pickle" Parkhurst.

Jokes might get old after 18 terms but tossing out the funniest sh**t they'd ever seen is why we can't have nice things.

[free my dawg]

Hour 4:

* I'm calling SD-15 for Becky Whitley. The Williamson wing of the party will go down, as Hopkinton broke massively for Whitley. Hodes's loss is a tremendous loss for ****posting.

* The NHDP seems to be confident that Sue Prentiss will win, but Pastor is still in the lead with Claremont out. Maybe they know something we don't, but for all we know Pastor could pull this out.

* Plunkett pulled ahead of Soldati. Not much of a surprise, as Soldati failed to break out in Concord and Keene. He still has Portsmouth and Durham, but he's not doing as well as he needs to elsewhere. No matter what, he's proven he has a bright future - maybe succeeding Watters, or maybe in a future EC district when EC-2 gets broken up.

* Things also look good for Wheeler in EC-5.

[free my dawg]

Hour 5:

* Warmington and Plunkett expand their leads. Getting closer and closer to a Warmington call, but the result delays on Durham give me pause.

* Nothing to report out of EC-3. Salem and Hampton are still out. I'll get a closer look when they vote.

* Claremont came in - Sue Prentiss officially won, but given the 70-vote margin, I'd expect a recount.

* I'm gonna call EC-4 for Mark MacKenzie. Duval won Manchester, but MacKenzie's doing too well outside of the city for Duval to win. It wasn't looking great a while ago, but it's over now.

* George Lambert won the primary in SD-18, apparently. He'll get crushed by Soucy.

* The SD-20 primary is too close to call. Gericke's only 40 votes ahead of Kenny.

* I completely forgot to post this but I'm gonna call SD-24 here for Lou Gargiulo. Hampton's out but Barnes isn't making up 50%.

[free my dawg]

Durham came in, Soldati came in 3rd.

I've seen enough. I'll call the EC-2 primary for Cinde Warmington. Thank **** I was wrong about Surdukowski.

Janet Stevens also won Hampton (Crochetiere's hometown). I'll call it for her. Fairly shocking, considering she's a #NeverTrumper who was a part of Bill Weld's NH campaign.

[free my dawg]

Also in case you haven't heard Feltes won the gubernatorial primary. I did that thing where I got distracted by the downballot again.

[Meatball Ron]

Also in case you haven't heard Feltes won the gubernatorial primary. I did that thing where I got distracted by the downballot again.

Any idea why Buckley, Soucy, etc. are congratulating Prentiss when Pastor is only down by a few votes (and was actually up at one point AFTER they had congratulated Prentiss)? I guess it's possible candidates and their staffers get results sooner than the press, but I've never heard of that being a thing?

[free my dawg]

Also in case you haven't heard Feltes won the gubernatorial primary. I did that thing where I got distracted by the downballot again.

Any idea why Buckley, Soucy, etc. are congratulating Prentiss when Pastor is only down by a few votes (and was actually up at one point AFTER they had congratulated Prentiss)? I guess it's possible candidates and their staffers get results sooner than the press, but I've never heard of that being a thing?

Maybe they had Claremont results earlier? Idk. I found it as weird as you did.

[Meatball Ron]

Also in case you haven't heard Feltes won the gubernatorial primary. I did that thing where I got distracted by the downballot again.

Any idea why Buckley, Soucy, etc. are congratulating Prentiss when Pastor is only down by a few votes (and was actually up at one point AFTER they had congratulated Prentiss)? I guess it's possible candidates and their staffers get results sooner than the press, but I've never heard of that being a thing?

Maybe they had Claremont results earlier? Idk. I found it as weird as you did.

Bummer. I am just now getting smart on this race, but it looks like Pastor had a bunch of great endorsements including Hennessey, Pierce, Burling, and Fuller Clark. Meanwhile Prentiss looks...not great. I guess a lot of the endorsers I just mentioned were also for Buttigieg, so I can't realllly fault her there, but also seems like she was a Republican till pretty recently. Feels like we could do a lot better in the safest / most liberal district.

[Nyvin]

Bolduc is not endorsing Messner (and I can't blame him) -

https://www.wmur.com/article/don-bolduc-i-will-not-disgrace-my-name-to-support-a-man-like-corky-messner/33966350?fbclid=IwAR1JAsjD-Zk3ghuURa_DtuJ07AX_FWtug-UIvRmuWcmpNWHpsXbXkRBXRwI

[free my dawg]

Also in case you haven't heard Feltes won the gubernatorial primary. I did that thing where I got distracted by the downballot again.

Any idea why Buckley, Soucy, etc. are congratulating Prentiss when Pastor is only down by a few votes (and was actually up at one point AFTER they had congratulated Prentiss)? I guess it's possible candidates and their staffers get results sooner than the press, but I've never heard of that being a thing?

Maybe they had Claremont results earlier? Idk. I found it as weird as you did.

Bummer. I am just now getting smart on this race, but it looks like Pastor had a bunch of great endorsements including Hennessey, Pierce, Burling, and Fuller Clark. Meanwhile Prentiss looks...not great. I guess a lot of the endorsers I just mentioned were also for Buttigieg, so I can't realllly fault her there, but also seems like she was a Republican till pretty recently. Feels like we could do a lot better in the safest / most liberal district.

Meh, from what I've seen Prentiss seems just about as good on the issues.

[free my dawg]

And even if she isn't, she's not a sexual assault apologist POS like Hennessey.