New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[Nyvin]

More registered Democrats in NH than registered Republicans for first time in 10 years

https://www.wmur.com/article/for-the-first-time-in-10-years-there-are-more-registered-democrats-than-republicans-in-nh/31139110#

-- 1,018,783 registered voters in the state, slightly more than the 1,009,004 reported after the November 2018 midterm election.

-- 387,648 registered undeclared voters in New Hampshire, which is 38 percent of the total number of registered voters,

-- 324,593 registered Democrats, which is 31.8 percent of the total, and

-- 306,542 registered Republicans, or 30 percent of the total.

As of Feb. 4, a week before the primary, there were 415,871 registered undeclared voters, 288,464 registered Republicans and 276,385 registered Democrats in the state.

[free my dawg]

Bumping for the Komi news

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Biden wins, I think Prescott runs for Gov in 2022 when Sununu runs against Hassan.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1257487389859221505

Glorious news!

Hopefully she won't be replaced by another POS rape apologist!

[free my dawg]

Other Things I Missed:

* Democrats took Merrimack-24 in somewhat of a surprise. Democrat Kathleen Martins wound up beating Free Stater/general lunatic Elliott Axelman. Axelman is a nutter, advocating to abolish Medicare and Medicaid, comparing democracy to gang rape, and comparing gay marriage to pedophilia. Such a nutter, in fact, that he wound up losing to a solidly liberal, pro-income tax Democrat in a ruby-red district!

* State Senate races are starting to square up. Most of them are rematches, with Avard, Alford-Teaster, and Bolton looking for a second try. For SD-24, Hampton selectwoman Regina Barnes is the candidate. Otherwise, it'll mostly be a copy-and-paste of my previous ratings, except with proper adjustments to reflect Trends.

* Businessman Emmett Soldati is in for EC-2. He's actually the only candidate who isn't from Concord, and is a gay millennial businessman. He's also the son of congressional candidate Lincoln Soldati, who happened to do very well in his home county of Strafford (which makes up a surprising amount of the district). He's also currently embroiled in a lawsuit against Facebook over the false termination of his account, and is even somewhat known in Concord because of his business ventures. I'd say that he has a very strong position in the primary, considering he's known in the community.

[Meatball Ron]

He's also currently embroiled in a lawsuit against Facebook over the false termination of his account,

Haha what's the backstory here?

[MT Treasurer]

NH elected officials approval numbers:

Sununu: 74/25 (+49)
Shaheen: 54/40 (+14)
Hassan: 51/39 (+12)

Pappas: 48/34 (+14)
Kuster: 44/39 (+5)

(PRES: Biden 50, Trump 42)

Saint Anselm College
April 23 - 27, 2020
n = 820 Registered Voters
MoE +/- 3.4%

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/stanselmpollapril2020-1588192419.pdf

[free my dawg]

He's also currently embroiled in a lawsuit against Facebook over the false termination of his account,

Haha what's the backstory here?

His account was shut down for no discernible reason (if I had to guess, it was false reports from homophobic trolls). While he created a new account, it's inoffensive and doesn't have anything that would violate the TOS. His lawyers have filed a breach of contract lawsuit, since he spent money on advertising, while Facebook argues that the CDA's safe harbor provision applies to this case as well.

It's currently reached the state Supreme Court.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NH elected officials approval numbers:

Sununu: 74/25 (+49)
Shaheen: 54/40 (+14)
Hassan: 51/39 (+12)

Pappas: 48/34 (+14)
Kuster: 44/39 (+5)

(PRES: Biden 50, Trump 42)

Saint Anselm College
April 23 - 27, 2020
n = 820 Registered Voters
MoE +/- 3.4%

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/stanselmpollapril2020-1588192419.pdf

RIP climbing Maggie if it's a Biden midterm

[Ye We Can]

NH elected officials approval numbers:

Sununu: 74/25 (+49)
Shaheen: 54/40 (+14)
Hassan: 51/39 (+12)

Pappas: 48/34 (+14)
Kuster: 44/39 (+5)

(PRES: Biden 50, Trump 42)

Saint Anselm College
April 23 - 27, 2020
n = 820 Registered Voters
MoE +/- 3.4%

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/stanselmpollapril2020-1588192419.pdf

RIP climbing Maggie if it's a Biden midterm

Rip unbeatable Kusty at that rate as well

[Continential]

Axleman seems like the guy that would worship Merlim Thompson Jr..

[Octowakandi]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

[NHI]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

[free my dawg]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

Almost all the Republicans in the state senate will be over 65 by the time it's over. Most of them will be 70. Even their leadership consists of mostly olds. The only ones who don't fit the profile are state Trump acolyte Fred Doucette and noted asshole Al Baldasaro.

[Brother Jonathan]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

It's exacerbated by the fact that the party grassroots are very active and powerful, and thus keep more moderate Republicans from gaining influence. Just take Steve Duprey, who lost his bid for another term as GOP national Committeeman because he was pro-choice and was not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter. Even in 2016, Sununu just barely scraped by past Frank Edelblut in the primary, who came out of nowhere with the support of the party base. He won by fewer than 1,000 votes. I feel like, beyond Sununu, there are no Republicans in NH with much of a shot of winning a statewide race right now.

It's even worse in CD 2, where the GOP manages to constantly nominate candidates outside the mainstream who couldn't fundraise if their lives depended on it.

It looks like the grassroots are lining up behind Messner in the Senate primary, but it's too early to tell. Not that this race is really winnable for them, but Messner is the much weaker candidate of the two for so many reasons. I swear, NH GOP primary voters just don't care about winning.

[smoltchanov]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

It's exacerbated by the fact that the party grassroots are very active and powerful, and thus keep more moderate Republicans from gaining influence. Just take Steve Duprey, who lost his bid for another term as GOP national Committeeman because he was pro-choice and was not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter. Even in 2016, Sununu just barely scraped by past Frank Edelblut in the primary, who came out of nowhere with the support of the party base. He won by fewer than 1,000 votes. I feel like, beyond Sununu, there are no Republicans in NH with much of a shot of winning a statewide race right now.

It's even worse in CD 2, where the GOP manages to constantly nominate candidates outside the mainstream who couldn't fundraise if their lives depended on it.

It looks like the grassroots are lining up behind Messner in the Senate primary, but it's too early to tell. Not that this race is really winnable for them, but Messner is the much weaker candidate of the two for so many reasons. I swear, NH GOP primary voters just don't care about winning.

The same in almost all New England: if you are moderate (and especially - at least somewhat liberal) - you have much better career perspectives in Democratic party (Kuster parents were liberal Republicans in the past). So, essentially, only ultraconservatives, who have nowhere else to go, remain in Republican party. The mirror image situation of what we observe in many parts of the South, where there are no reasons for you to be a conservative Democrat when you may have much better career as Republican.

[Brother Jonathan]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

It's exacerbated by the fact that the party grassroots are very active and powerful, and thus keep more moderate Republicans from gaining influence. Just take Steve Duprey, who lost his bid for another term as GOP national Committeeman because he was pro-choice and was not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter. Even in 2016, Sununu just barely scraped by past Frank Edelblut in the primary, who came out of nowhere with the support of the party base. He won by fewer than 1,000 votes. I feel like, beyond Sununu, there are no Republicans in NH with much of a shot of winning a statewide race right now.

It's even worse in CD 2, where the GOP manages to constantly nominate candidates outside the mainstream who couldn't fundraise if their lives depended on it.

It looks like the grassroots are lining up behind Messner in the Senate primary, but it's too early to tell. Not that this race is really winnable for them, but Messner is the much weaker candidate of the two for so many reasons. I swear, NH GOP primary voters just don't care about winning.

The same in almost all New England: if you are moderate (and especially - at least somewhat liberal) - you have much better career perspectives in Democratic party (Kuster parents were liberal Republicans in the past). So, essentially, only ultraconservatives, who have nowhere else to go, remain in Republican party. The mirror image situation of what we observe in many parts of the South, where there are no reasons for you to be a conservative Democrat when you may have much better career as Republican.

I just find it particularly frustrating in New Hampshire, where there are winnable races that get thrown away because the party base is too insistent on nominating partisan Republicans, or just very conservative candidates in swing districts. At this point only Maine and New Hampshire have competitive state GOPs at every level in New England (Connecticut is on the cusp of relevance, I suppose) and they keep kneecapping themselves by playing to the base while ignoring the 1/3rd of voters who are independent.

The NH GOP also seems pretty much uncontrollable. I know my State Rep at home, a Republican, likes to brag about how little power the GOP whips have in the State House, and recently I've actually seen GOP grassroots groups on social media calling the Republican governor a tyrant in light of his response to COVID. Putting the policy merits aside, the fact that the NH GOP allows its local branches to be vocally critical of the de facto leader of the state party is just sort of representative of the total lack of organization and discipline in the state party right now. I guess that's true in a lot of states, but it seems pretty pronounced here sometimes. It wouldn't be so frustrating if it were say Vermont or Mass (where this stuff also happens), where the GOP is consigned to irrelevance for the foreseeable future, but the NH GOP actually has a shot every now and again and they just always manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 

[smoltchanov]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

It's exacerbated by the fact that the party grassroots are very active and powerful, and thus keep more moderate Republicans from gaining influence. Just take Steve Duprey, who lost his bid for another term as GOP national Committeeman because he was pro-choice and was not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter. Even in 2016, Sununu just barely scraped by past Frank Edelblut in the primary, who came out of nowhere with the support of the party base. He won by fewer than 1,000 votes. I feel like, beyond Sununu, there are no Republicans in NH with much of a shot of winning a statewide race right now.

It's even worse in CD 2, where the GOP manages to constantly nominate candidates outside the mainstream who couldn't fundraise if their lives depended on it.

It looks like the grassroots are lining up behind Messner in the Senate primary, but it's too early to tell. Not that this race is really winnable for them, but Messner is the much weaker candidate of the two for so many reasons. I swear, NH GOP primary voters just don't care about winning.

The same in almost all New England: if you are moderate (and especially - at least somewhat liberal) - you have much better career perspectives in Democratic party (Kuster parents were liberal Republicans in the past). So, essentially, only ultraconservatives, who have nowhere else to go, remain in Republican party. The mirror image situation of what we observe in many parts of the South, where there are no reasons for you to be a conservative Democrat when you may have much better career as Republican.

I just find it particularly frustrating in New Hampshire, where there are winnable races that get thrown away because the party base is too insistent on nominating partisan Republicans, or just very conservative candidates in swing districts. At this point only Maine and New Hampshire have competitive state GOPs at every level in New England (Connecticut is on the cusp of relevance, I suppose) and they keep kneecapping themselves by playing to the base while ignoring the 1/3rd of voters who are independent.

The NH GOP also seems pretty much uncontrollable. I know my State Rep at home, a Republican, likes to brag about how little power the GOP whips have in the State House, and recently I've actually seen GOP grassroots groups on social media calling the Republican governor a tyrant in light of his response to COVID. Putting the policy merits aside, the fact that the NH GOP allows its local branches to be vocally critical of the de facto leader of the state party is just sort of representative of the total lack of organization and discipline in the state party right now. I guess that's true in a lot of states, but it seems pretty pronounced here sometimes. It wouldn't be so frustrating if it were say Vermont or Mass (where this stuff also happens), where the GOP is consigned to irrelevance for the foreseeable future, but the NH GOP actually has a shot every now and again and they just always manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 

Fully agree. With such insistence on far right candidates Sununu may become "the last of the Mohicans" in New Hampshire, as Phil Scott and Charlie Baker almost surely are in Vermont and Massachusetts

[free my dawg]

State senator and NHDP Vice Chair Martha Fuller Clark (D-Portsmouth) is retiring after a long career. She originally was elected to the state house in 1990, serving for 5 years until she decided to run in NH-1 against then-Congressman John E. Sununu. After his Senate run, she then ran another rematch against then-state senator Jeb Bradley. After that, she decided to run for the state senate in 2004.

Fuller Clark then got unexpectedly wiped out in the 2010 wave by Nancy Stiles, a moderate Republican, but the NHGOP's gerrymander split the Portsmouth area off of the rest of the Seacoast and created a vote sink with Durham. She ran there and won, and her district is Safe D to this day. However, there are a lot of rising stars in the party. Here's a quick rundown of the big names in Portsmouth politics:

Stefany Shaheen: A businesswoman who serves on the Portsmouth Police Commission. Used to be on City Council. Daughter of Jeanne and Bill Shaheen. Usually mentioned when higher office opens up, but seems to be content with life in the private sector. - Is content with life in the private sector.

Maura Sullivan: Former Obama administration official and Tier 1 Congressional candidate. After losing to Chris Pappas, she has decided to stay in New Hampshire and get involved in party politics. Was a key ally of Buttigieg in our state, and has started to build bona fide relationships here. While Sullivan was a weak candidate for NH-1, the carpetbagging weakness has been resolved. I wouldn't be vehemently opposed to her running. Obviously, she'd probably be more centrist than someone like MacEachern, but a role in the state senate would give her a pathway back to the House, where her run would be more of a slam dunk. Cannot legally run. There's a 7-year residency requirement for running for a state-level position.

Deaglan MacEachern: Tech executive, son of a former local Democratic figure and gubernatorial nominee. He's more aligned with the Bernie wing of the party, and heavily pushed for Medicare for All. My personal pick - I really liked him when he ran for Congress.

Rebecca Perkins Kwoka: Former City Councilor, actively weighing a run right now. I don't know much about her.

Former Speaker Terie Norelli has already declined to run.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who is Komi and what did he or she say/do?

[Brother Jonathan]

Who is Komi and what did he or she say/do?

Richard Komi was a State Rep who claimed that "the female anatomy" made Tara Reade's claim "impossible" unless she "cooperated". He later back peddled, and simple said it was false, and he resigned.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

Can't they bring back John Sununu? What about their Executive Council members?

[Brother Jonathan]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

Can't they bring back John Sununu? What about their Executive Council members?

I don't see either of the GOP Councilors running for Congress. Gatsas maybe, but he is 70 now and would be running against the youthful Chris Pappas. Russell Prescott is not running for re-election (maybe with an eye on the Governor's office sometime soon), and doesn't seem like he would do well against Pappas (though maybe he would, like Sununu, outperform in the Seacoast).

John Sununu seems done with politics. If he had really wanted to, he probably could have run for his old seat in 2014, and would have had a decent shot at winning (honestly, I think he would have won).

It's also interesting to note that Gatsas, Prescott, and Sununu all have their political base in the 1st District, which just underlines how low powered the 2nd District GOP is.

[Continential]

Van Ostern's lose for NH SOS was horrible for the Democrats.

[Orwell]

Van Ostern's lose for NH SOS was horrible for the Democrats.

The Secretary of State is a Democrat though