2020 redistricting with DRA (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 redistricting with DRA  (Read 9044 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 41,365
United States


« on: August 25, 2018, 07:43:23 AM »

Minnesota: loses 1 district (most of current 7th). The Twin Cities metro area is growing healthily. The rest of the state not so much.

MN-01: south. R+5 | likely R
MN-02: south suburbs. R+1 | tossup
MN-03: west suburbs. D+3 | likely D
MN-04: north suburbs. EVEN | tossup
MN-05: Twin Cities. D+30 | solid D
MN-06: central. R+15 | solid R
MN-07: north. R+4 | likely R

Not going to happen. Even the Republicans don't want to combine the Twin Cities anymore.
How do you envision the post-2020 map looking like?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,365
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2018, 08:52:08 AM »


How do you access the new numbers?

Also, it looks like the current FL-25 is destined to flip next decade. Only a matter of time. Same with MN-7/8 too. Also, NV-3 should become much safer with Clark County being able to support virtually all of three CD's.
Gotta disagree there with MN-07/8.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,365
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2018, 09:20:54 AM »


This is a possible alternative - though it would have to be tweaked based off 2020 census numbers.
MN-01: 51-46 Obama, R+4.86
MN-02: 50-48 Obama, R+1.44
MN-03: 53-46 McCain, R+6.72
MN-04: 61-37 Obama, D+11.7
MN-05: 71-27 Obama, D+23.56
MN-06: 53-45 McCain, R+13.79
MN-07: 54-43 Obama, R+3.57
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,365
United States


« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2018, 09:51:04 AM »

Based off 2017 census estimates...MN-01 has 769,492 people, under quota by around 27,000 people. Add Brown County in and now it's within range. this makes it R+5.22, and 50.9-46.7 Obama.
MN-02 has around 814,700 or so people. It is over quota by 17,000 people. If it cedes Cedar Lake, Helena, and Sand Creek townships in Scott County, it is within quota. It now is R+1.15, and 50.6-47.5 Obama.
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