Why are Clay and Boone Counties WV part of the Charleston WV MSA?
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  Why are Clay and Boone Counties WV part of the Charleston WV MSA?
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Author Topic: Why are Clay and Boone Counties WV part of the Charleston WV MSA?  (Read 553 times)
DINGO Joe
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« on: March 05, 2019, 09:58:48 PM »

I don't know how much MSAs are defined by technical criteria or whether politics impact their definition.

Prior to the 2000 Census, the Charleston MSA was Kanawha Co (Charleston) and Putnam Co.  It made sense because Putnam had all the obvious markings of a suburban bedroom community.  After 2000, Putnam was shifted to the Huntington MSA, which seemed plausible since it's right between Charleston and Huntington and it's possible that more people travel to Huntington that Charleston.  When Putnam was removed from the Charleston MSA, Clay and Boone were added, but both of these counties don't seem to belong to a metro area.  While they are adjacent to Kanawha county, both have small declining populations and have no indicators of being suburban or having commuters to Kanawha whatsoever.  While both counties certainly lack local commerce or medical options (Clay county doesn't even have a single grocery store) that require travel to Kanawha (or possibly in Boone's case--Logan), they just don't seem "worthy" of being in an MSA.

If anyone has any technical knowledge to share that would be swell.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2019, 02:44:55 PM »

Jimrtex knows more about this than I do, but which counties end up in which MSAs depends on commuting patterns. If there's, say, a Walmart near the county line, and a lot of the people in the county commute to work there, the county will get lumped into the MSA despite commuters not travelling to the central city much.

Or, at least how I understand it.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2019, 04:49:05 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2019, 12:40:54 AM by jimrtex »




This is a map of the Charleston and Huntington Urbanized Areas. Charleston is the blue bull on the right. and Huntington the salamander on the left. Charleston proper is the body of the bull, with a hind leg upstream along the Kanawha River, and the tail upstream along the Elk River. The head is around the town of Nitro which is on the Putnam-Kanawha county line.

Huntington is the easternmost thickened area of the salamander. The urbanized area stretches downstream along the Ohio River, through Wayne County, WV, and Boyd and Greenup counties, KY, including Ashland, KY, and some areas on the north side of the river in Lawrence County, OH, including Ironton, OH. The tail stretching out towards Charleston is along I-64 which links the two cities.

Beginning in the late 19th Century, the Census Bureau began classifying the population as Urban and Rural. By 1900, a standard had been established that incorporated towns with a population greater than 2500 were classified as "urban", while everything else was "rural".

Beginning in 1950, the Census Bureau began delineating unincorporated places (now called Census Designated Places, CDP). It treated these as towns for determining urban population. In addition, they began delineating Urbanized Areas around larger cities (more than 50,000 persons). This recognized some people did not live in formally organized cities. Urbanized Areas were largely assembled by hand, adding smaller cities and unincorporated developed areas around larger cities.

Beginning in 2000, the Census Bureau began delineating Urban Areas solely on the basis of population density, disregarding any political subdivisions. Areas within cities and CDP's could be non-urban, and areas outside cities and CDP's could be urban. This was made possible once the entire country was divided into census blocks. Census blocks have a population and an area, and population density can be computed.

The Census Bureau extended the concept to smaller areas as well. Densely populated areas with a population greater than 2500 are termed Urban Areas, and the population is classified as Urban. Urban areas with a population greater than 50,000 are called Urbanized Areas, to maintain comparability to pre-2000 areas. Areas with less than 50,000 persons are called Urban Clusters.

Urban Areas can string out along highways. Most people need a house to live in, and a job to work at, and a way to get back and forth between the two. Commuting 20 miles on city streets, with stop signs, traffic lights, and traffic is a pain in good weather. a nightmare in snow and ice.

Highways make it easy to travel back and forth, and this is particularly true for interstate highways. It is 54 minutes between Charleston and Huntington via I-64, vs 82 minutes by the old US 60. Interstates may also open up new areas to residential development. Individuals may have bought a few acres and built a house. They may rely on well water and a septic tank. Piecemeal development may reduce the ability to acquire large tracts for mass development, which would include streets, and municipal water and sewage. Density in these areas may be greater.

Charleston is terrain constrained. The city was built in a narrow band of land along the Kanawha River. Modern construction equipment opened hilly areas to the north and south of the river, but building on a hill is difficult (and expensive). I found a curving tree-lined street, with stairs running up to the front door (not two or three steps, but 15), while across the street, houses were built below the street.

But instead you can go out along I-64 to Teays Valley and build on relatively flat land, and have a new house and an easy commute into Charleston. Kanawha has fewer people in 2010 than it did in 1940, and its peak was in 1960. Putnam has doubled in population since 1970.

In 1990, Teays Valley CDP was part of the Charleston Urbanized Area. At that time, the Census Bureau assembled Urbanized Areas from contiguous incorporated and unincorporated places (CDP) of density greater than 1000.

The Census Bureau was concerned that this delineation was either over-inclusive or over-exclusive. Portions of places, both incorporated and unincorporated, were undeveloped and rural in nature but being included in urbanized areas. At the same time, a town or CDP adjacent to an urbanized area might be excluded, because of territory that caused the density to drop below 1000 person per square mile. And there might be developed areas that were outside CDP's. The Census Bureau might feel compelled to "annex" these areas to CDP's to more accurately reflect the urban population.

Beginning with 2000, the Census Bureau switched to a density-based delineation of urbanized areas that disregarded political boundaries. It would not matter whether incorporated boundaries matched development or not, or whether CDP's were defined or not. It also extended the concept to the entire country. Previously, urban areas only existed around cities with more than 50,000 persons. Houses just outside the limits of a small town might previously been considered rural.

In 2000, the Charleston Urbanized Area included Teays Valley and Hurricane and reached Culloden CDP, which is on the Cabell-Putnam county line. The Huntington Urbanized Area also reached Culloden, but the two urbanized areas did not touch. Had they touched, they would have been separated at or near the Cabell-Putnam county line based on maintaining the association with Metropolitan Statistical Areas/ At the time, Putnam was in the Charleston MSA.

In 2010, the Huntington Urbanized Area includes Hurricane, and most of Teays Valley. and had spanned the Culloden gap. I'm not sure why this happened. There were small changes in the rules for delineating urban areas. Instead of using block groups for the initial stage of analysis, the 2010 delineation switched to using census tracts.

While the Census Bureau could use census blocks, this would be messier, since individual blocks may have no population, such as a block containing a park or school. The census bureau has rules for closing inclusions, but it would still be computationally expensive.

The Census Bureau has set a threshold of 3 square miles for a census tract to be used. A PLSS section filled with 1/4 acre lots, would have a population of around 6000, suitable for a census tract. If it has undeveloped land, larger lots, schools, parks, stores, then the population will be less. A Census Tract with 3 square miles will likely be pretty filled up. Even if some vacant land exists, there will be few persons misclassified as urban. If there are a couple of blocks of houses or mobile homes, they are part of the urban area.

The Census Bureau also includes census blocks with significant areas of impervious ground cover (e.g. parking lots or roofs), which are likely shopping centers, factories, schools, etc. which are an urban use, even if there are no residents.

In 2000, the Census Bureau used block groups for analysis. Perhaps that made a difference. In any event, the gap moved from Culloden to the east end of Teays Valley.

These two photos show the area around the gap between the urbanized areas. The first shows overlays for the urban areas.



And the second shows the same area with the overlay removed. There is definitely a gap, which corresponds to the area between two I-64 interchanges.


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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2019, 02:09:45 PM »


Well, that kind of explains Putnam and the overall Huntington MSA, but I don't see any indication from those maps as to why Clay and Boone got slapped on to Kanawha unless they needed a consolation prize for losing Putnam.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2019, 12:25:18 PM »


Well, that kind of explains Putnam and the overall Huntington MSA, but I don't see any indication from those maps as to why Clay and Boone got slapped on to Kanawha unless they needed a consolation prize for losing Putnam.

I got side-tracked on the urbanized areas.

Delineation of urbanized areas does not consider economic ties, but is based on density. There is some interaction between the two cities because of I-64. Huntington Mall which is the shopping mall for the regions is quite a way east of Huntington, and within easy travel distance of Charleston, if you want to do a little more shopping than Wal-Mart. Teays Valley is within commuting distance to both cities, and would be ideal for a couple with jobs in the two cities (e.g. one works at Marshall and the other works for the state government).

But Putnam is definitely tied to Charleston. Of workers who live in Putnam, 48% work in Putnam, 41% in Kanawha and 7% in Cabell, and 4% everywhere else.

Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) are based around an urban area core. CBSA based on an urbanized area (population greater than 50,000) are Metropolitan Statistical Areas. CBSA based on a urban cluster of more than 10,000 persons are Micropolitan Statistical Areas.

The first step in delineating a CBSA is to identify the central counties. A county is associated with the urban area which has the largest share of the county's population. In this case, more of Putnam is in the Huntington Urbanized Area (22K) than in the Charleston Urbanized Area (13K), so Putnam is a central county of the Huntington MSA (along with Wayne and Cabell, WV, Boyd and Greenup in KY, and Lawrence, OH.

A county may only be a central county of one CBSA.

Next outlying counties are identified. Counties where more than 25% or more employed residents work in the central counties of a CBSA are outlying counties.

Workers who resided in Clay worked 51% in Clay, 25% in Kanawha, 6% in Fayette, 4% in Nicholas, and 13% everywhere else.

Workers who resided in Boone worked 58% in Boone, 30% in Kanawha, 5% in Logan, and 7% everywhere else.

Both Clay and Boone are outlying counties of the Charleston MSA because over 25% of their resident workers worked in a (the) central county of the Charleston MSA.

Were it not for the flaw in delineation of the urbanized areas, Putnam would still be a central county of the Charleston MSA.

Note that the switch of Putnam occurred in 2010, not 2000.

This error also caused Lincoln to switch from Charleston to Huntington in 2010. More Lincoln workers worked in Cabell, Wayne, Putnam, and the other three central counties of the Huntington MSA than in Kanawha. Were Putnam still a central county of the Charleston MSA, then Lincoln would still be an outlying county of Charleston MSA. As it is, it might switch back based on the window used for measuring commuting. For 2010, they used the 2006-2010 ACS, but later windows put Charleston back in the lead.

Clay is quite small with only a little over 3000 workers. There doesn't appear much work in the county. Likely the school system and nursing homes. The town of Clay has less than 500 persons. There is a large strip mine on the Nicholas-Clay line, but access may be from the Nicholas side. It looks like a large number of persons in their 20s have left the county. You reach adulthood and there is not much to do, and few jobs, you leave. The alternative is to drive into Charleston. There is not a direct route, but I-79 runs along the edge of the county. A long commute, as much as an hour, but better than going hungry.

Unemployment is very seasonal, with a peak in January and a dip in June, swinging about 12% to 6% (this appears to be a decades long pattern, with the swing about 5 or 6$ regardless whether the peak is over 20% as it was in the early 20s, or 8% in the good times. This suggests that there are some seasonal jobs, either in recreation, or perhaps timbering or farming.

Boone is Coal Country. In fairly recent times. 20%+ of West Virginia production was in Boone, but this has dropped to under 10%. In the early 1990s, unemployment was around 20%, but had worked its way down to 3% by the 2008 recession. This could be due to a combination of people moving away, aging out of the work force, or mines reopening or adding production.

The unemployment rate shot up after the 2008 recession, and there was the threat that all four mines in the county would shut down. Unlike Clay, seasonal unemployment is more normal as the peak is reached in June, as people graduate from high school and begin seeking full time employment. If you are female, you probably won't be working in the mines, and if your husband may be laid off at any time, you may want a second source of income.

The ACS question is based on persons who worked the previous week. If you were laid off or on vacation, you won't indicate a workplace. Someone not working will decrease the denominator and increase the percentage of those who are working outside the county.

Workers outside the county bring the income home and spend much of it in the home county, where it pays for school teachers, police, doctors, cashiers, cooks, etc. So 25% outside workers is a high level of economic interdependence.

It is not unusual for a small rural county to be pulled into a MSA. There may be almost no jobs in the county. It also appears that working on a family farm without pay is considered employment, but excluded from the commuting statistics. A small town may provide enough employment to keep a county out of a MSA. Rice is not in the Minneapolis-St.Paul MSA, even though Northfield is on the Dakota-Rice line and is commutable. Faribault is large enough to be a job provider in its own right, and it somewhat toward the southern part of the county. Mille Lacs is in the Minneapolis-St Paul MSA, in part because Sherburne is a central county, and commuting is counted even if it is just across the county line or towards St. Cloud), and because the population is concentrated in the southern part of the county. A surprising 10% of Mille Lacs residents work in Hennepin. This might include workers like airline pilots or firefighters, who may be out of the county for days at a time, but may also have several days at home.

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2019, 01:10:17 PM »

Thanks for the very detailed explanation.  It's interesting that you utilized Minnesota as a comparison since the work force participation rate is substantially higher there than in WV, frequently around 70% vs 40% for Boone and Clay.  So, in the WV case, with such a minimal workforce, it doesn't take very many people making the commute into some part of Kanawha to trip the statistical definition of being in an MSA even if a hefty chunk of the populace is really pulling down a SSI check or nothing at all (subsistence food/copper gathering).
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