Heller might make this somewhat close if the national environment improves for Republicans, but it’s just not going to happen for him this year. The NRSC should triage this and put more effort into winning MT/WV.
Possibly. They may have to tell Adelson and the Koch Brothers to take it over.
But even with this poll the RCP average would only be Rosen +2.8. It is too early to desert a sitting Senator. With the polling errors in 2016 and the wild swings in Florida Democrat Governor’s race, you just cannot let polls make all the decisions.
If the GOP should leave Nevada, the Democrats should leave Florida.
If there is another polling error in 2018, it will impact the Midwest and states like MT/ND/WV more than NV, where Heck and Trump couldn’t even win in a Republican year. Heller being the incumbent doesn’t change the fact that he’s not the strongest candidate (to put it mildly) and that NV leans strongly D in a year like this. By your logic, Democrats shouldn’t have triaged someone like Pryor in August either (yes, yes, obviously NV is much more competitive than AR, but still...).
I fail to see what the "wild swings" in a gubernatorial
primary in an entirely different state tell us about the
general election in a state like Nevada. Obviously, a GE has a smaller slice of persuadable voters, so the swings won’t be as wild here as in a primary.
