NBC/Marist-TX: Cruz +4
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  NBC/Marist-TX: Cruz +4
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Author Topic: NBC/Marist-TX: Cruz +4  (Read 3741 times)
Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #25 on: August 22, 2018, 06:08:59 PM »

Safe R
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IceSpear
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« Reply #26 on: August 22, 2018, 06:36:13 PM »

Remember when O'Rourke was supposed to collapse when he called for Trump's impeachment because TONS of voters will vote based off that + they'd definitely remember it months later? Yeah, that was a thing.
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Xing
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« Reply #27 on: August 22, 2018, 06:49:02 PM »

Remember when O'Rourke was supposed to collapse when he called for Trump's impeachment because TONS of voters will vote based off that + they'd definitely remember it months later? Yeah, that was a thing.

If Beto hadn't done that he'd probably be ahead now imo tbh
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Zaybay
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« Reply #28 on: August 22, 2018, 06:50:57 PM »

Interesting momentum Beto is showing, especially since this is before the huge spending both candidates are about to do. Lean R, but its moving more and more to tossup.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #29 on: August 22, 2018, 07:01:01 PM »

I am starting to feel a bit more worried about this race.  I actually think this might be more likely to flip than my state's race.  Still Lean R.

I think Lean R is a very fair rating.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #30 on: August 22, 2018, 07:49:25 PM »

O'Rourke is consistently nipping at Cruz's heels, but I doubt he ever overtakes him. This race is indeed lean R, but I wouldn't be particularly disappointed if this is how the election ends up in November.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: August 22, 2018, 07:50:45 PM »

This wasn't really a battleground state to begin with
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Canis
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« Reply #32 on: August 22, 2018, 07:54:16 PM »

Safe R? hes within striking distance
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #33 on: August 22, 2018, 08:10:45 PM »

Anything can happen
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👁️👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #34 on: August 22, 2018, 08:23:40 PM »

It is encouraging to have a decent quality poll showing this actually within reach. While I have pooh-poohed earlier polls a bit, eventually more polls showing it fairly close add up to mean something.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: August 22, 2018, 08:29:35 PM »

These polls show a real tight race because Senator Cruz is sticking with McConnell, I don't know how to read these polls but being aligned with McConnell so closely, is not helpful
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #36 on: August 22, 2018, 09:04:12 PM »

Although the topline polling numbers are credible from a reputable polling outfit, Texas is an extremely difficult state to poll, and some of the cross-tab numbers look a bit odd, even when accounting for increased MOE among sub-samples of the population.

I am curious about their polling methodology and weighing of sub-samples in a Midterm election in a fairly low voter turnout State....

White Voters break 57-37 Cruz, which is entirely plausible, especially with the College/Non-College breakdown numbers and Beto performing a bit better in WestTex and EastTex than Dems normally do, but Latinos only 42-53 Beto which is much weaker than one would expect for a Democratic Candidate in Tejas, even among Middle-Class Latinos that tend to be less Democratic and turn out at higher overall % numbers in general than Working-Class Latinos....

The Under 45 Numbers are what is really dragging down Cruz margins here 40-52 Beto, and if these numbers hold in November could be a major problem for Cruz *IF* there is a much higher than normal turnout of these voters than is usually the case for a Texas Midterm.

IT IS AN RV ONLY POLL, so this might explain Cruz being at only a +4% lead, but without seeing a more detailed breakdown of the methodology, makes it a bit less convincing especially in a Low Turnout state like Texas.

Still those numbers out of Metro DFW and Metro Houston look pretty brutal for Cruz regardless, considering that the other large Metro Areas (Austin, San Antonio (SA), and El Paso) tend to be even more heavily Democratic Strongholds than Metro H-Town or DFW.

Time will tell, but I'm still waiting on some more decent polls out of Texas, especially once the "Air War" starts in earnest after Labor Day, with Deep $$$ Pockets on both sides in one of the most expensive states in the Union....

"If You're Going to Play in Texas, You Gotta' have Millions in the Bank"....

Substitute "Fiddle in the Band" for "Millions in the Bank" from this Alabama song from back in the days, cutting out a few of the Chorus lines and repetition....

If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have a fiddle in the band
That lead guitar is hot,
But not for "Louisiana man"
So rosin up that bow for "faded love"
And let's all dance

If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have a fiddle in the band
I remember down in Houston
We were puttin' on a show
When a cowboy in the back stood up and yelled,
"Cotton-Eyed Joe"!
He said, "we love what you're doin'
Boys don't get us wrong,
There's just somethin' missin' in your song

So we dusted off our boots and put our cowboy hats on straight
Them Texans raised the roof when Jeff opened up his case
You say y'all all want to two-step. you say ya want to doe-si-doe
Well, here's a fiddlin' song before we go
If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have a fiddle in the band


Dear Abby Atlas Forum and Confused Ex-Texan
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #37 on: August 22, 2018, 09:07:59 PM »

He's rated it Safe R and Likely D today. He's a white noise generator.
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081088
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #38 on: August 22, 2018, 09:30:53 PM »



To quote Underoath:

Dear Ted,

Can you feel your heartbeat racing?
Can you taste the fear in your sweat?
You've done this wrong
It's too far gone
These sheets tell of regret
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
IndyRep
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« Reply #39 on: August 22, 2018, 09:34:41 PM »

tbh republicans lose tx and tn but win nv and fl because candidate quality matters even in wave elections tbh
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IceSpear
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« Reply #40 on: August 22, 2018, 09:41:00 PM »



To quote Underoath:

Dear Ted,

Can you feel your heartbeat racing?
Can you taste the fear in your sweat?
You've done this wrong
It's too far gone
These sheets tell of regret


Let's hope RINO Tom doesn't see that tweet. I'd be worried for his health.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #41 on: August 22, 2018, 09:53:59 PM »

I don't know much but as a Texan I'll say this.

1. Cruz is favored rn, anyone saying otherwise right now is a hack.

2. Anyone who thinks this is Safe R needs to be disregarded.
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ηєω яσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #42 on: August 23, 2018, 12:50:45 AM »

Beto has a chance but still think that Cruz with sneak out the victory (as of now).

Cruz will win either 52-48 or 53-47.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #43 on: August 23, 2018, 01:51:17 AM »

Lean R -> Tilt R.

Looks about accurate; NBC/Marist is a high quality pollster. Cruz is probably ahead at this moment, by a slim margin, but it's winnable for Beto, who is running the heck of a campaign.
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Galaxie
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« Reply #44 on: August 23, 2018, 10:32:26 AM »

Still have this at Lean R -- we need to see Beto drum up better numbers and turnout among the Latino community before I'd be comfortable moving this to a Tilt or Tossup. He's running a powerhouse of a campaign, but the % support among Latinos (and name recognition, for that matter), is still troubling. That, matched with Abbott's 20 points over Valdez.

I want this race to flip like no other, and I feel good about Beto's odds, but on election day I'm thinking Cruz +4.5.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #45 on: August 23, 2018, 12:31:09 PM »

I'm cautious to say it's a toss-up, but no more than lean Republican at this point. Beto has plenty of time to make up the final few points that are missing, but I don't know how hard this is. The best strategy is probably to focus on the suburbs Trump just barely won.



This wasn't really a battleground state to begin with


These polls show a real tight race because Senator Cruz is sticking with McConnell, I don't know how to read these polls but being aligned with McConnell so closely, is not helpful

Pretty cool analysis, all in a single thread within a single day. Huh
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