Which is more likely: Trump's removal via the Senate or resignation?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If the Mueller investigation concludes and it reveals that Donald Trump and his campaign DID conspire with the Russian government to influence the 2016 election, then which option is more likely?

Congressional Republicans have no backbone, so I believe that Trump will most likely end up resigning from office like Richard Nixon.

What do you think?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump will serve out the remainder of his term, undoubtedly. He has a 50% chance of "earning" another one. Resignation is more likely than Senate conviction, but both are at a <1% chance.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

0% = 0%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trump is more likely to die in office than either of those 2.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Serves out term > resignation > removal.  See also the "Weight the likelihood of outcomes" thread.

Interestingly, it looks like some Republicans might be giving at least the tiniest little sliver of an opening as to it being maybe a hypothetical possibility:

https://twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/1032279123308232705

[TML]

The Senate has a 0% chance of happening no matter what hypothetical crimes he committed.

I think people were saying the same things about Nixon up until 3Q1974...

[BlueSwan]

Serves out term > resignation > removal.

And it's not close.

[Senator Sirius]

I say removal, Trump is too hardline against the "witchhunt" to resign. Don't know why you put serve out the term as an option, it ruins the poll results.

[Koharu]

Trump won't ever resign. It's more likely that he's removed than resigns, but I'm guessing he'll most likely finish his current term. I'm not sure what will happen after that.

[Sir Mohamed]

The most likely scenario for Trump not serve out his term is death from natural causes. I don't wish for this obviously, but is has a greater chance than impeachment or resignation. The GOP has lost its core and is too afraid of the base to impeach him.

[Badger]

Serving out his term, and he'll never resign.

[Dabeav]

I think impeachment will come, whether it's successful or not, who knows. He'll never resign though.

[Take your vitamins and say your prayers, Brother!]

I think impeachment will come, whether it's successful or not, who knows. He'll never resign though.

Only if the Democrats take the House in 2018.  And they may be gun-shy if it's a small margin and it's a case on the order of what they came at Bill Clinton with.

Nixon resigned because he lost his political base in the Congress.  He lost his political base because the tapes provided irrefutable evidence that Nixon was an active part of the cover-up of Watergate.  It was easy to understand.  If Trump is going to suffer the same fate, there's a massive difference between a smoking gun and a dumpster fire.