NBC/Marist-TX: Cruz +4

[NOVA Green]

Although the topline polling numbers are credible from a reputable polling outfit, Texas is an extremely difficult state to poll, and some of the cross-tab numbers look a bit odd, even when accounting for increased MOE among sub-samples of the population.

I am curious about their polling methodology and weighing of sub-samples in a Midterm election in a fairly low voter turnout State....

White Voters break 57-37 Cruz, which is entirely plausible, especially with the College/Non-College breakdown numbers and Beto performing a bit better in WestTex and EastTex than Dems normally do, but Latinos only 42-53 Beto which is much weaker than one would expect for a Democratic Candidate in Tejas, even among Middle-Class Latinos that tend to be less Democratic and turn out at higher overall % numbers in general than Working-Class Latinos....

The Under 45 Numbers are what is really dragging down Cruz margins here 40-52 Beto, and if these numbers hold in November could be a major problem for Cruz *IF* there is a much higher than normal turnout of these voters than is usually the case for a Texas Midterm.

IT IS AN RV ONLY POLL, so this might explain Cruz being at only a +4% lead, but without seeing a more detailed breakdown of the methodology, makes it a bit less convincing especially in a Low Turnout state like Texas.

Still those numbers out of Metro DFW and Metro Houston look pretty brutal for Cruz regardless, considering that the other large Metro Areas (Austin, San Antonio (SA), and El Paso) tend to be even more heavily Democratic Strongholds than Metro H-Town or DFW.

Time will tell, but I'm still waiting on some more decent polls out of Texas, especially once the "Air War" starts in earnest after Labor Day, with Deep $$$ Pockets on both sides in one of the most expensive states in the Union....

"If You're Going to Play in Texas, You Gotta' have Millions in the Bank"....

Substitute "Fiddle in the Band" for "Millions in the Bank" from this Alabama song from back in the days, cutting out a few of the Chorus lines and repetition....

If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have a fiddle in the band
That lead guitar is hot,
But not for "Louisiana man"
So rosin up that bow for "faded love"
And let's all dance

If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have a fiddle in the band
I remember down in Houston
We were puttin' on a show
When a cowboy in the back stood up and yelled,
"Cotton-Eyed Joe"!
He said, "we love what you're doin'
Boys don't get us wrong,
There's just somethin' missin' in your song

So we dusted off our boots and put our cowboy hats on straight
Them Texans raised the roof when Jeff opened up his case
You say y'all all want to two-step. you say ya want to doe-si-doe
Well, here's a fiddlin' song before we go
If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have a fiddle in the band


Dear Abby Atlas Forum and Confused Ex-Texan