VA-Roanoke: Kaine +17

[Calthrina950]

Who wants to guess that percentage of Republicans Stewart will win? I'll go with 92%.

Kaine will win >90% of Democrats as well, so I'm not sure what to make of this. Partisans usually support the candidate of the same affiliation as they by such a high rate.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Who wants to guess that percentage of Republicans Stewart will win? I'll go with 92%.

Kaine will win >90% of Democrats as well, so I'm not sure what to make of this. Partisans usually support the candidate of the same affiliation as they by such a high rate.

The thing is, you have Konfederate Klown Korey running a joke campaign, and Tim Kaine is a relatively moderate Democrat. Most statewide winners in Virginia campaign as "centrists", and... well, Stewart is certainly failing to do that, pointing to Kaine potentially winning over a fair amount of Republicans. It will likely be enough to knock Stewart's share of the Republican vote to below 90%.

It does not help that Virginia's demographics are becoming more and more hostile to Republicans every year, making it hard for even a "moderate" Republican to win statewide.

[IceSpear]

Who wants to guess that percentage of Republicans Stewart will win? I'll go with 92%.

Kaine will win >90% of Democrats as well, so I'm not sure what to make of this. Partisans usually support the candidate of the same affiliation as they by such a high rate.

Well, Kaine isn't a neoconfederate racist scumbag.

[Calthrina950]

Who wants to guess that percentage of Republicans Stewart will win? I'll go with 92%.

Kaine will win >90% of Democrats as well, so I'm not sure what to make of this. Partisans usually support the candidate of the same affiliation as they by such a high rate.

The thing is, you have Konfederate Klown Korey running a joke campaign, and Tim Kaine is a relatively moderate Democrat. Most statewide winners in Virginia campaign as "centrists", and... well, Stewart is certainly failing to do that, pointing to Kaine potentially winning over a fair amount of Republicans. It will likely be enough to knock Stewart's share of the Republican vote to below 90%.

It does not help that Virginia's demographics are becoming more and more hostile to Republicans every year, making it hard for even a "moderate" Republican to win statewide.

Most partisans support the party to which they are affiliated; that has been true for a long time. I was taking issue with IceSpear's guess that 92% of Republicans will support Stewart. The point you make about there being a higher rate of defections actually applies well here. It's possible that Kaine may get as many as 10-15% of Republicans, especially if he is winning by twenty percentage points.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Who wants to guess that percentage of Republicans Stewart will win? I'll go with 92%.

Kaine will win >90% of Democrats as well, so I'm not sure what to make of this. Partisans usually support the candidate of the same affiliation as they by such a high rate.

The thing is, you have Konfederate Klown Korey running a joke campaign, and Tim Kaine is a relatively moderate Democrat. Most statewide winners in Virginia campaign as "centrists", and... well, Stewart is certainly failing to do that, pointing to Kaine potentially winning over a fair amount of Republicans. It will likely be enough to knock Stewart's share of the Republican vote to below 90%.

It does not help that Virginia's demographics are becoming more and more hostile to Republicans every year, making it hard for even a "moderate" Republican to win statewide.

Most partisans support the party to which they are affiliated; that has been true for a long time. I was taking issue with IceSpear's guess that 92% of Republicans will support Stewart. The point you make about there being a higher rate of defections actually applies well here. It's possible that Kaine may get as many as 10-15% of Republicans, especially if he is winning by twenty percentage points.

Looking at NBC exit polls for the 2017 Gubernatorial race in VA (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/VA), IceSpear's guess might actually be on the low end. Gillespie won 95% of Republicans in that exit poll, and Northam won 97%. If Kaine is winning big time, it would probably be contributed more by Republicans staying home and Democrats showing up in droves. The Republicans that still go to vote would largely be the hyperpartisans who wouldn't vote for Antifa boosting balding fool Kaine over Virginia-loving and, erm... "patriot" Corey Stewart in any scenario.

I think the main demographic at play in this race is native Minnesotans that moved to Virginia. What do they think of Stewart? Will they be willing to vote for fellow Democrat Tim Kaine (as we all know that all people from MN are true populist Democrats at ), or leer into the populism and economic appeals from Stewart's campaign? Also, are they willing to either stand in the solidarity of their fellow Minnesotan, or contribute to his humiliation?

[RINO Tom]

Wonder how much carry-over a 17% margin of victory would have outside of the metro areas?  In races like these where we all know what's going to happen, the only interesting part is the county map possibilities.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

#KaineUnder52

[Virginiá]

Most partisans support the party to which they are affiliated; that has been true for a long time. I was taking issue with IceSpear's guess that 92% of Republicans will support Stewart. The point you make about there being a higher rate of defections actually applies well here. It's possible that Kaine may get as many as 10-15% of Republicans, especially if he is winning by twenty percentage points.

Usually, but some elections can produce ticket splitting that doesn't extend beyond that race (or certain kinds of races). The entire South's political history from the 60s to 2010 is proof of that, but for Virginia, the Senate election in 1988 and 2008 produced results that aren't possible without a sizable number of votes from otherwise reliable Republican voters.

[Nyvin]

Who wants to guess that percentage of Republicans Stewart will win? I'll go with 92%.

Kaine will win >90% of Democrats as well, so I'm not sure what to make of this. Partisans usually support the candidate of the same affiliation as they by such a high rate.

The thing is, you have Konfederate Klown Korey running a joke campaign, and Tim Kaine is a relatively moderate Democrat. Most statewide winners in Virginia campaign as "centrists", and... well, Stewart is certainly failing to do that, pointing to Kaine potentially winning over a fair amount of Republicans. It will likely be enough to knock Stewart's share of the Republican vote to below 90%.

It does not help that Virginia's demographics are becoming more and more hostile to Republicans every year, making it hard for even a "moderate" Republican to win statewide.

Warner is the moderate.   Kaine is actually pretty liberal.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, Likely D. What is the chance of a Warner’ing here? I’d say 10-15%.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah, Likely Safe D.

[henster]

I wonder if the best strategy for Kaine is to completely ignore Stewart and run a positive campaign or just go hard negative exposing Stewart to turn off moderate Rs and hope they stay home.

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Roanoke College on 2018-08-19

Summary: D: 51%, R: 34%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Bye bye Scott Taylor, Dave Brat!

[ctherainbow]

Kaine is looking great!  I could see him breaking 60% on election night.  I wonder how my conservative West VA Trumpkin mother is feeling about this race.