How long until Trump fires Robert Mueller?

[Yank2133]

If Trump fires Mueller now (he will have to find somebody to fire him ala what Nixon did), it will probably lead to his impeachment, and many Senate Pubs would be hard pressed not to vote for a conviction. I say this, because in my mind such an act would be an obstruction of justice at this point, and clearly related to the discharge of his duties as POTUS. Anyway, if I were in Congress in this circumstance, I would vote to impeach and convict depending on which body I were in.

I am beginning to think that Trump will go down as the worst POTUS in history. Yes, in my mind, he really is that bad.

what took you so long? That's been clear to me for about a year and a half.

Yeah, yeah, I heard the same refrain for 8 years of GWB. It’s grown old.

Yet Bush historically is remembered as one of our worst presidents.

[Badger]

This would be my second guess, but even I doubt it. The chances are very strong the Democrats will control the house, and at least likely the Senate as well, IMHO. At that point firing Mueller is not much help to Trump as the Democratic Congress can at that point not only conduct their own investigations, but likely reappoint/otherwise protect Mueller and his team. Even Trump probably would get talked out of taking such a huge political hit that would accomplish a little more than closing down Mueller's investigation only for the short lame duck Congressional session.

If somehow against the odds Republicans maintain control of Congress, though, Mueller will be gone within a week after election day.

It's been reported recently that Senate Republicans are conveying to Trump that he may fire Sessions after the midterms, but not before, as firing him will only imperil Kavanaugh's confirmation and possibly cause more losses for Republicans up and downballot. Up to this point, Republicans have said they wouldn't confirm a replacement. If they do it after the midterm, a new AG can cripple the investigation or shut it down outright.

Crappy thing is that even if they lose the Senate this November, Republicans can still confirm a new AG before they lose control. The best Democrats could hope to do is to win a House/Senate majority and then tell Trump point blank that if he fires Sessions or in any way tries to cripple the investigation, that they will move to impeach him immediately. Even if that fails, they can still make his life a living hell and utilize threats that may happen anyway, such as his tax returns, or threatening a total blockade of executive/judicial nominations (judicial confirmations will probably be shut down anyway), and other major Congressional investigations.

Could the new Democratic majority "re-appoint" Mueller in the role of special prosecutor? Or is he appointed purely by the executive branch?

[Virginiá]

Could the new Democratic majority "re-appoint" Mueller in the role of special prosecutor? Or is he appointed purely by the executive branch?

They could bring Mueller on as their investigator, but he would have a lot less power to investigate and obviously wouldn't be able to actually prosecute anyone, being from the legislative branch and all. Otherwise, there is nothing Democrats could do except try and pass a law that would retroactively reinstate Mueller unless he was fired for cause, and give him an avenue to appeal his firing, but it's debatable if that would be enough. It's also unlikely that enough Republicans would sign on to that bill to override a veto. They could also put together a commission to produce a massively detailed report on everything they find via avalanches of subpoenas.

FWIW, even the Nixon/Clinton-era special prosecutor bill (ICA) ultimately required the Attorney General to make the initial decision to appoint someone, the main difference was that a panel of 3 judges would pick the prosecutor and supervise the case, but the Attorney General (and only the AG) could still fire the prosecutor, because the constitution says the executive branch must have that ability. The bill mainly sought to limit the president's ability to meddle in the investigation without actually firing them. It also required the firing be for good cause, so presumably firing to obstruct the investigation might not pass muster after a protracted legal battle.

Honestly, whoever thought it was a good idea to put an expiration date in the Independent Counsel Act was a blithering idiot, and that is putting it kindly. Such a bill was destined to create political pressure to let it expire because by its very nature, it made the lives of high-level politicians very difficult, because god forbid they be investigated for criminal behavior.

If Democrats are serious about reform post-Trump, they will reenact the ICA, even beefing it up if possible. Although the best way would be to amend the constitution to give the judicial branch the ability to appoint and supervise a special prosecutor under certain circumstances, such as a request by 60% of Congress, and/or a request by the executive branch, and/or when the executive, legislative or judicial branch(s) appear to be engaging in criminal activity under the protection of a partisan Congress and/or White House hellbent on protecting their people at all costs.

[Badger]

Could the new Democratic majority "re-appoint" Mueller in the role of special prosecutor? Or is he appointed purely by the executive branch?

They could bring Mueller on as their investigator, but he would have a lot less power to investigate and obviously wouldn't be able to actually prosecute anyone, being from the legislative branch and all. Otherwise, there is nothing Democrats could do except try and pass a law that would retroactively reinstate Mueller unless he was fired for cause, and give him an avenue to appeal his firing, but it's debatable if that would be enough. It's also unlikely that enough Republicans would sign on to that bill to override a veto. They could also put together a commission to produce a massively detailed report on everything they find via avalanches of subpoenas.

FWIW, even the Nixon/Clinton-era special prosecutor bill (ICA) ultimately required the Attorney General to make the initial decision to appoint someone, the main difference was that a panel of 3 judges would pick the prosecutor and supervise the case, but the Attorney General (and only the AG) could still fire the prosecutor, because the constitution says the executive branch must have that ability. The bill mainly sought to limit the president's ability to meddle in the investigation without actually firing them. It also required the firing be for good cause, so presumably firing to obstruct the investigation might not pass muster after a protracted legal battle.

Honestly, whoever thought it was a good idea to put an expiration date in the Independent Counsel Act was a blithering idiot, and that is putting it kindly. Such a bill was destined to create political pressure to let it expire because by its very nature, it made the lives of high-level politicians very difficult, because god forbid they be investigated for criminal behavior.

If Democrats are serious about reform post-Trump, they will reenact the ICA, even beefing it up if possible. Although the best way would be to amend the constitution to give the judicial branch the ability to appoint and supervise a special prosecutor under certain circumstances, such as a request by 60% of Congress, and/or a request by the executive branch, and/or when the executive, legislative or judicial branch(s) appear to be engaging in criminal activity under the protection of a partisan Congress and/or White House hellbent on protecting their people at all costs.

Thank you for that well thought out, informative, and utterly depressing post.

[Nyvin]

I don't think he will, this seems like another bad cycle that will be forgotten in a couple months, just like a couple months ago when the same idiots claimed that the children at the border would end his presidency. Unless anything concrete emerges regarding collusion (I have a feeling that if Cohen had anything he would have shown it by now) there's a good chance this will be out of the news cycle in a few weeks. Firing Mueller would only seek to strengthen the bizarre messiah complex many on the left have towards him

Mueller is a life long Republican you know...?   Why would the left have a messiah complex about him?

Firing Mueller would only be a small band-aid fix for Trump anyway,   there's too much dirt out in the open nowadays for the investigation to just go away.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

I don't think he will, this seems like another bad cycle that will be forgotten in a couple months, just like a couple months ago when the same idiots claimed that the children at the border would end his presidency. Unless anything concrete emerges regarding collusion (I have a feeling that if Cohen had anything he would have shown it by now) there's a good chance this will be out of the news cycle in a few weeks. Firing Mueller would only seek to strengthen the bizarre messiah complex many on the left have towards him

Mueller is a life long Republican you know...?   Why would the left have a messiah complex about him?

Firing Mueller would only be a small band-aid fix for Trump anyway,   there's too much dirt out in the open nowadays for the investigation to just go away.

At this point, it looks like he'd also have to fire much of the SDNY leadership to get a (temporary) respite from his legal woes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think he will, this seems like another bad cycle that will be forgotten in a couple months, just like a couple months ago when the same idiots claimed that the children at the border would end his presidency. Unless anything concrete emerges regarding collusion (I have a feeling that if Cohen had anything he would have shown it by now) there's a good chance this will be out of the news cycle in a few weeks. Firing Mueller would only seek to strengthen the bizarre messiah complex many on the left have towards him

Mueller is a life long Republican you know...?   Why would the left have a messiah complex about him?

Firing Mueller would only be a small band-aid fix for Trump anyway,   there's too much dirt out in the open nowadays for the investigation to just go away.

At this point, it looks like he'd also have to fire much of the SDNY leadership to get a (temporary) respite from his legal woes.

Yep.  It's beginning to look like SDNY may even be more threatening to Trump than Mueller is.

[KingSweden]

I don't think he will, this seems like another bad cycle that will be forgotten in a couple months, just like a couple months ago when the same idiots claimed that the children at the border would end his presidency. Unless anything concrete emerges regarding collusion (I have a feeling that if Cohen had anything he would have shown it by now) there's a good chance this will be out of the news cycle in a few weeks. Firing Mueller would only seek to strengthen the bizarre messiah complex many on the left have towards him

Mueller is a life long Republican you know...?   Why would the left have a messiah complex about him?

Firing Mueller would only be a small band-aid fix for Trump anyway,   there's too much dirt out in the open nowadays for the investigation to just go away.

At this point, it looks like he'd also have to fire much of the SDNY leadership to get a (temporary) respite from his legal woes.

Yep.  It's beginning to look like SDNY may even be more threatening to Trump than Mueller is.

And ironically the USA for that district was apparently heavily vetted by Trump

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The Appeals CRT will put any breaks on firing a special prosecutor before an impeachment inquiry, in an unlikely event GOP hold Congress, Trump stands a chance.