SC-Tarrance Group (R)/Republican Governors Association: Gov. McMaster (R) +11

[Tender Branson]

52% Gov. Henry McMaster (R)
41% James Smith (D)

The RGA poll was conducted between Aug. 11 and 13, and had a sample size of 601 likely voters. It also had a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article217129665.html

[IceSpear]

So McMaster likely leads by more than 4 points but less than 11 points. Sounds about right.

[Skye]

Dem poll has Smith, at 43, GOP poll has him at 41. Which means he'll get 42%.

[Zaybay]

The fact that he released this is telling
1. The first poll wasnt close to the actual result
2. This poll is not close to the actual result

It appears that this race has McMaster in the range of 46-49% with Smith at a likely 42%.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

SC is an inelastic R+10ish state, and not enough has happened in the state demographically to shift that.

[President Johnson]

SC is an inelastic R+10ish state, and not enough has happened in the state demographically to shift that.

2010 was pretty close despite the Tea Party wave. Democrats can win this one against McMaster, who is not the strongest candidate. Still a longshot though. Currently the race is somewhere between lean and likely Republican.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So McMaster likely leads by more than 4 points but less than 11 points. Sounds about right.

[Tender Branson]

Now that SC has been polled, 3 states are left without a poll:

Wyoming, Nebraska and Vermont.

[wesmoorenerd]

Now that SC has been polled, 3 states are left without a poll:

Wyoming, Nebraska and Vermont.

All of which have a near zero chance of flipping this year.