NJ-Gov: Forrester within 1%?

[Moooooo]

WNBC/Marist Poll reports:

Likely Voters:

Corzine:  44%
Forrester:  43%
Undecided:  13%

Likely Voters (w/ leaners):

Corzine:  47%
Forrester:  45%
Undecided:  8%

Registered Voters:

Corzine:  45%
Forrester:  38%
Undecided:  17%

This survey was conducted on October 5th and 6th, 2005.  600 registered voters in New Jersey were interviewed in proportion to the enrollment in each county and adjusted for turnout in comparable statewide elections. The results are statistically significant at ±4%.  There are 321 likely voters and the results for this sub-sample are statistically significant at ±5.5%.  The margin of error increases for cross-tabulations.

This poll was conducted the same week as the Rasmussen poll.  The only question is, which do you trust more?

[Keystone Phil]

Seems too good to be true but he should be within 1% about a week before the election.

[J. J.]

IIRC Corzine's Senate bid became very close at the end.  Also Todd-Whitman was behind until the last week.

[Keystone Phil]

IIRC Corzine's Senate bid became very close at the end.  Also Todd-Whitman was behind until the last week.

Corzine only won by 3% in 2000. Some of us tried to tell people that Corzine was not a lock but few would listen...

[Keystone Phil]

The period between the end of the local news and the beginning of the national news is always the best for these ads.

I just saw a new Forrester ad about Corzine voting to raise taxes and something new: Forrester's ad points out that Corzine was voting to give himself a pay raise. Pretty good ad. But I knew there was more coming. A new Corzine ad pops up titled "The Truth about Taxes." It hits Forrester pretty hard but it's really been more of the same old stuff Corzine has been throwing at Forrester except with different footage.

[Sam Spade]

My first comment is college poll.

Marist is one of the better ones, however, though they don't have much of a record in New Jersey.

My major concern would be the independent break and wondering whether they've oversampled Republicans.  Normally in New Jersey polling, that break would translate into a larger lead.

[BobOMac2k2]

This is getting disgusting.

[YRABNNRM]

This is getting disgusting.

Says the guy that has Blagovajoke in his signature.

[Flying Dog]

corzine is going to win by more than this poll sugests, but it wont be by much

[Keystone Phil]

I just saw that Kean ad. Amazing.

[Sam Spade]

I just actually read the internals of this poll.

The RV numbers are actually very similar to most other polls in this race, showing a 45%-38% Corzine lead.

This is leaning me towards giving more credence to this poll, saying that right now Forrester's voters are more motivated, which is quite possible.

[Alcon]

I just actually read the internals of this poll.

The RV numbers are actually very similar to most other polls in this race, showing a 45%-38% Corzine lead.

This is leaning me towards giving more credence to this poll, saying that right now Forrester's voters are more motivated, which is quite possible.

Wow, that is a huge split.  Usually it's within a few points.

Unmotivated voters is not necessarily a bad thing - that may mean that Corzine will pick up the "at the polls" voters, although not necessarily.

I'll wait for another poll to verify.

[Moooooo]

Fairleigh Dickinson Poll:

Corzine 44%
Forrester 38%

w/ Leaners

Corzine 48%
Forrester 40%

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 4 through October 9 using a randomly selected sample of 602 likely voters statewide aged 18 and over.  The sampling error for 602 adults is +/- 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ.  Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected

[TheresNoMoney]

Seems like the Marist poll is an outlier.

Most of the polls have Corzine up by 6%-8%.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It's disheartening for the Democrats, but I suspect Corzine will end up winning about 53-46.  NJ naturally breaks for the Democrats near the end.