AL-Gov: Riley well ahead of Moore in GOP primary.

[Moooooo]

Poll indicates Riley is well ahead of Moore in GOP primary.

Riley: 44 (35)
Moore: 25 (43)
Undecided: 31 (22)
MoE: ±5%


MONTGOMERY -- Gov. Bob Riley, who on Saturday announced his bid for a second term, holds a 19-point lead over ousted Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore among likely voters in the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary, the results of a new statewide survey suggest.

The Mobile Register-University of South Alabama poll showed Riley with 44 percent and Moore with 25 percent. The remainder were undecided.

The results mark a dramatic turnaround from January, when a similar Register-USA poll found Moore leading the governor 43-35 in a hypothetical GOP contest.

The findings also defy what was once the prevailing political wisdom in Alabama: that Riley, weakened after voters drubbed his billion-dollar tax plan in 2003, would be a one-term governor and no match for Moore, a hero among religious conservatives after being removed from office in 2003 for his refusal to move his Ten Commandments monument out of the Alabama Judicial Building rotunda.

"This is surprising," said USA political science professor Keith Nicholls, who directed the poll. "I'm not sure what to make of this margin. I suspect a big part of it has to do with the positive national exposure Gov. Riley has gotten with the hurricanes. ... Moore has not been out front on much of anything lately."

Nicholls also noted the economic upswing in Alabama that has afforded Riley, 61, the opportunity to make job creation announcements around the state and preside over budget surpluses.

Moore, 58, launched his campaign Monday in his hometown of Gadsden, where he became famous for his legal effort to keep a Ten Commandments plaque in his Etowah County Circuit Court chambers. He had maintained a relatively low profile leading up to the Monday event, saying in public appearances only that he was continuing to pray about his options in 2006.

Since his announcement, Moore has conducted one airplane tour of the state, including a stop in Mobile, and he has appeared on national cable news shows, rekindling some of the attention he generated in 2003 at the peak of his Ten Commandments struggle.

The Register-USA poll, conducted last Monday through Thursday, includes responses from 400 registered voters around the state. The telephone poll queried only those who said they either typically vote in Republican primaries or would be likely to vote in the party's gubernatorial primary next year.

The Riley administration declined comment on the poll results through spokesman John Matson. Riley supporters, however, have distributed and discussed other polls in recent months that have shown the governor running ahead of Moore among Republican voters.

[WalterMitty]

im worried about this race.  alabama may have enough ignorants to push moore over the top in the primary.

the last thing the gop needs is another national f'ing embarrassment.

[© tweed]

Still plenty of time and plenty of undecideds for Moore to make a strong run.  I think he wins in the end.

[Sam Spade]

Still the hurricane bump, imo.  The race will tighten before it's over.

[jokerman]

Still the hurricane bump, imo.  The race will tighten before it's over.

Indeed.

Does Moore intend to run third party if he loses the primary?

[Sam Spade]

Still the hurricane bump, imo.  The race will tighten before it's over.

Indeed.

Does Moore intend to run third party if he loses the primary?

Dunno.

I meant to post this earlier, but wanted to get an Alabama thread to post it on, but SUSA did polls of the favorable/unfavorables of the 4 major candidates in the Alabama Gov. race a week ago (10/03/05).  I don't know whether anyone else noticed this, but I did.  Polled among 573 RV, MOE +/-4.2%.

Bob Riley
Favorable 40%
Unfavorable 37%
Neutral 20%
Unfamiliar 2%

Roy Moore
Favorable 39%
Unfavorable 33%
Neutral 16%
Unfamiliar 13%

Lucy Baxley
Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 21%
Neutral 26%
Unfamiliar 24%

Don Siegelman
Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 42%
Neutral 18%
Unfamiliar 4%

[ian]

Sam Spade, that's very interesting.  I thought Siegelman was a lot more popular than that.  So, I suppose he has little to no chance of beating Riley or Moore...  I guess I have to endorse Baxley then, even though I know very little about her.
But also, I want someone to take over when Shelby retires, and that, to me, is much more important.  Hmmmm... undecided then.

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade, that's very interesting.  I thought Siegelman was a lot more popular than that.  So, I suppose he has little to no chance of beating Riley or Moore...  I guess I have to endorse Baxley then, even though I know very little about her.
But also, I want someone to take over when Shelby retires, and that, to me, is much more important.  Hmmmm... undecided then.

Well, it's favorability, not approval.  That's not necessarily the kiss of death.

But I would agree that Baxley is a stronger candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

God, I want Moore to win so badly. Great way to embarass the national GOP.

[BobOMac2k2]

I would actually vote in the Republican primary for this...

[Democratic Hawk]

alabama may have enough ignorants to push moore over the top in the primary.

the last thing the gop needs is another national f'ing embarrassment.

Alabama does have a lot of ignorants, which explains why it went for Bush 63-37 in 2004. I hope Moore snatches the GOP primary from Riley, which should help the Democratic candidate. The party of Abe Lincoln is too strong in Dixie for my liking

Dave

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Alabama does have a lot of ignorants

The party of Abe Lincoln is too strong in Dixie for my liking

Hmm... amazing that people in Alabama won't vote for you when you/your party runs around calling them "ignorants".

I have full faith and confidence in the people of Alabama.  They'll do what's right here and re-elect their Governor.  He's a good man, a decent man, and he has the vision and character to lead Alabama to great things.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

And now I see Walter started the "ignorants" crap. 

Alabama will do the right thing.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I would actually vote in the Republican primary for this...

For Riley, who is doing everything possible to strengthen education and health care in Alabama despite attacks from the far-right,

or for Moore, just so you could embarrass the GOP and elect one of your precious Democrats?

[Democratic Hawk]

On second thoughts, they can't be that ignorant. At least, they have a Democratic legislature

Dave

[??????????]

I hope Moore kicks Rileys butt! Man that would be awesome as Moore is a true freedom fighter.

[BobOMac2k2]

As much as I would want the Democrats to win... and they would have a better chance against Moore. I wouldn't risk it. I would vote for Riley.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

As much as I would want the Democrats to win... and they would have a better chance against Moore. I wouldn't risk it. I would vote for Riley.

Excellent.

[bgwah]

Why is Moore doing this? It seems like a foolish way to waste his fame.

[BobOMac2k2]

He thinks he can win.

Like Arnold.

[Sarnstrom]

SurveyUSA released a poll on Oct 14th showing:

GOP Primary:
Riley           44%
Moore         38%

DEM Primary:
Siegelman  54%
Baxley        24%

University of South Alabama  released a poll on Oct 14th showing:

General Election:
Riley (R): 44%
Baxley (D): 33%

Riley (R): 46%
Siegelman (D): 31%

Baxley (D): 44%
Moore (R): 37%

Siegelman (D): 40%
Moore (R): 40%

[© tweed]

I'm surprised that Siegelman/Moore is much closer than Riley/Siegelman

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm surprised that Siegelman/Moore is much closer than Riley/Siegelman

Even if Siegelman would have to serve out his term from a prison cell, I'd vote for him over Moore without batting an eye. 

Moore himself belongs in prison for violating a federal order.

[Joe Republic]

I'm surprised that Siegelman/Moore is much closer than Riley/Siegelman

Even if Siegelman would have to serve out his term from a prison cell, I'd vote for him over Moore without batting an eye. 

Moore himself belongs in prison for violating a federal order.

Don, you must be mistaken.  Siegelman is a Democrat.  You don't vote for them, remember?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm surprised that Siegelman/Moore is much closer than Riley/Siegelman

Even if Siegelman would have to serve out his term from a prison cell, I'd vote for him over Moore without batting an eye. 

Moore himself belongs in prison for violating a federal order.

Don, you must be mistaken.  Siegelman is a Democrat.  You don't vote for them, remember?

Moore is a RINO.  I don't vote for them either.